Paris says it's concerned by the military coup in Niger – its only remaining ally in the Sahel region. While a political vacuum could be dangerous, any potential impact on France's economic and military interests will take longer to emerge.
France has joined other Western and regional leaders in condemning the attempted coup, which began on Wednesday when Niger’s presidential guard barricaded pro-western President Mohamed Bazoum in his residence.
Speaking for the soldiers, Colonel Amadou Abdramane said defence and security forces had decided to “put an end to the regime due to the deteriorating security situation and bad governance”.
France's Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna has condemned “any attempt at taking power through force”, joining both Ecowas and the African Union in calling for a return to democratic order.
If the attempt to seize power succeeds, it will be the latest in a series of military takeovers in the Sahel region, including in neighbouring Mali in 2021 and Burkina Faso in 2022.
Both countries turned their backs on the west, and in particular former colonial power France.
“France has lost its closest ally in the region, the only one to have been elected democratically, in 2020,” says Emmanuel Dupuy, head of the IPSE think tank that specialises in security in Europe.
“Since the first putsch in Mali in 2020, four of what remains of the G5 Sahel [Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger] are in the hands of the military,” he says.
It is still not clear what triggered the rebellion in Niger.
“Their grievances and demands are rather imprecise,” Dupuy notes, though they would appear to be rooted in a recent moves to force out the head of the presidential guard, General Omar Tchiani.
Military interests
After France was forced to withdraw from Mali following a breakdown in relations between Paris and the military junta, it turned to Niger.
Bazoum welcomed some 1,500 French troops into Niger to continue the fight against the jihadist insurgency in the Sahel region.
For now, Dupuy believes the coup is not a threat to French forces.
“For the moment I can’t see any impact at all on the continuation of the fight against armed terrorist groups,” he says.
He explains: "The military that have taken power were security partners, whether for the US, Italy or [...] the French, whose operations there have been considerably reinforced following the forced departure of [French anti-jihadist mission] Barkhane from Mali last summer.
"There’s been no act of hostility towards France."
In three statements issued by the coup leaders on Wednesday evening, and in speeches on national television, they said they did not want foreign interference.
There are concerns, however, over how the coup leaders see the future, and doubts remain about whether or not all of the armed forces back the overthrow.
“There is disagreement within members of presidential guard, between soldiers, the national guard and special forces over whether or not to support the coup d’etat,” Dupuy stresses.
Economic motives
France extracts uranium in the north of Niger, essential for running its vast network of nuclear power plants.
On France Info radio on Thursday, the head of Macron’s Renaissance party, Sylvain Maillard, said France was following the situation in Niger very closely – not only in case it endangers the population, but also for its impact on France’s economic interests.
“As you well know, uranium is part of the equation, so we’re watching what is happening very attentively,” Maillard said.
Dupuy sees no cause for major concern in the immediate future.
“Economic interests are not in danger. France will continue to get uranium in mines around Agadez, the Nigerien army will continue to ensure and protect the convoys of uranium,” he says.
“It’s too early to evoke the fact that the military might apply any pressure [on France] from that point of view.”
But uncertainty around the coup leaders' future plans leaves a political vacuum which, Dupuy says, is a potential cause for concern.
It could open the door for Moscow or Russian paramilitary organisation Wagner – so far absent from Niger – to intervene.
