There were certainly many rumors involving 26-year-old big man Christian Wood and 33-year-old guard Eric Gordon leading up to Thursday’s NBA trade deadline for the 2021-22 season. But with both players already under contract for 2022-23, the Rockets seemingly did not receive an offer strong enough to move them at this early stage.
Considering that Houston (15-39) entered Thursday with the worst record in the Western Conference and in the early stages of a franchise rebuild, it’s understandable why some fans wanted to extract some value in a trade for them, since it isn’t clear if they will be around by the time that the Rockets are eventually able to contend again.
Yet, it’s not as if there’s no value to keeping them. For starters, both players could be useful matching salaries in trade proposals during the 2022-23 league year, since they will be on expiring deals.
In the case of Wood, Houston’s top scorer and rebounder, any team that trades for him next season would own his Bird rights for a potential re-signing. Thus, there may not be much of a value hit (if any) due to stalling until the contract’s final year. At 27 years old, Wood certainly shouldn’t be viewed this offseason as being in any sort of age-related decline — and he’s also young enough to where a long-term future with the Rockets shouldn’t be ruled out, either.
Keeping Wood for the remainder of this season allows Houston to gain more data points to evaluate whether he can play well next to rookie big man Alperen Sengun in the frontcourt, and it also lets the Rockets factor in the results of the May 2022 NBA draft lottery and whether they secure a draft pick likely to bring one of the elite college bigs (Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero). If they do, Wood potentially becomes less viable long-term, whereas there could be a frontcourt opening if not.
Moreover, by waiting until the offseason, more future first-round draft assets from contenders could be on the table, since 2029 picks (which cannot be dealt today) will become trade eligible this offseason.
Christian Wood stays. https://t.co/257f3b5AqV pic.twitter.com/vSv09bXNbf
— Kelly Iko (@KellyIkoNBA) February 10, 2022
In Gordon’s case, while he is older, it’s possible that age concerns at the 2022 trade deadline already limited the offers.
If that’s the case, and the offers were relatively low in value (i.e. a protected pick very low in the first round, which Houston indicated was not its preference all along), there’s an argument to be made that simply keeping him as a potential matching salary in 2022-23 offered more value. After all, the Rockets already have a large stockpile of future draft assets, and they’re constrained by roster spots at the moment.
While 2021-22 is likely Gordon’s peak trade value, given his age, that’s not the only kind of value that matters to NBA general managers.
Additionally, the Rockets have repeatedly stressed that Gordon’s value as a steady 3-point shooter, defender, and veteran leader is useful in helping the development of their so-called “young core” featuring the likes of Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., and Sengun.
Unless something else happens then I nearly nailed it with my trade deadline predictions.
1. EG is happy in HOU and I agree with the FO not moving him for cents on the dollar. Hoping a deal is still there in the offseason
2. Same rationale above applies to Christian Wood https://t.co/buDpeztIPP
— Roosh (@RooshWilliams) February 10, 2022
Finally, in the long run, it’s worth noting that Gordon will be very incentivized to stay in shape and continue playing well into the 2022-23 season. Consider that the effective team option on the final year of his contract (2023-24) is much larger than the mid-level exception (MLE) type offers that he would likely get as a free agent — given his age and in any scenario where his game starts to show signs of decline.
From Houston’s perspective, the Rockets will be incentivized to put the best team on the floor in 2023-24 that they can, since that’s when their future draft obligations to Oklahoma City come back into play.
Thus, should Gordon continue to play at his current level — defending at a high level and shooting nearly 43% on 3-pointers, while providing strong leadership to the developmental prospects — there could be a scenario where that final option year gets picked up. Conversely, should his play warrant that, his trade value might not increase from 2021-22, but it wouldn’t seem likely to decline, either, given the last year optionality. So, should they have a change of philosophy, they could still potentially pivot back to similar offers that were available in recent days.
In any case, whatever offers were made to Houston at the 2022 trade deadline weren’t enough to offset those factors, at least not in the view of second-year general manager Rafael Stone.
Bingo. He's under contract through next season.
You can try again if you didn't like the offers. https://t.co/OBJpJNkGCx
— Anthony Duckett (@a_duckett) February 10, 2022
Prior to Thursday’s home game versus Toronto, head coach Stephen Silas did not suggest any disappointment. “I wasn’t really worried about it,” he said. “Everybody else was so worried about what was going to happen. We were still in the midst of what could and could not happen.”
While the Rockets appear happy today — Wood, in particular, made it clear that he did not want to be traded — time will tell as to whether the strategic longer-term decisions involved are the right ones.
