One thing we should never do is count out Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. With his ability to throw guys open paired with Andy Reid’s ability to game plan, it’s a recipe for success. That said, outside of those two aspects, when we compare each unit per team, the Eagles are just better.
- Total Sacks: Eagles 70, Chiefs 55
- Turnover differential: Eagles +8, Chiefs -3
- Yards allowed PG: Eagles 195.5, Chiefs 329.0
- Rush YPG: Eagles 208, Chiefs 93
From receivers, offensive line to defensive line and secondary. In the basic team statistics, the Eagles are at the top of the league in several categories.
“They put you in a bind,” Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo recently said. “I mean, everybody knows the numbers game. [You’ve] all been around football long enough to say, ‘If you pack them in the box, you leave two really elite wide receivers all by themselves.’
So yes, it’s easy to just pull some basic stats and say one team will win, so let’s dive a little deeper into why the Eagles are likely to win Super Bowl LVII!
Rushing attack
According to Next Gen Stats and Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, the Eagles are the best running team in football. They use all three of their running backs, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Miles Sanders.
Even though Sanders is their most utilized back, Gainwell might be their most productive. He has the highest EPA on the team with 7.11 and has the lowest stuff percentage 11.1% when facing a loaded box (8+ defenders).
The Chiefs rank 18th in NGS in rushing efficiency and 15th in run defense in DVOA (-6.9%).
It’s easy to just say that the Chiefs should be able to come up with a gameplan to stop the Eagles rushing attack — hey, they have two weeks, right?!
But back in week nine of the regular season after the Chiefs came back from a bye week, they couldn’t stop the Tennessee Titans and allowed 172 yards on the ground.
Derrick Henry just ran through the Chiefs completely untouched 🤯#Titans #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/gcweW2fpVL
— SNBets (@SNBets) November 7, 2022
The key will be stopping the Eagles early. They call a run play on 54% of their first downs and they have the second highest DVOA when doing it. The Chiefs are 21st in the league in DVOA on first down rushes.
The Chiefs also have a 54.3 tackling grade according to PFF which is 15th in the league.
Spagnuolo was asked about stopping the run, “Chris Jones can be disruptive in the run game, we’ve just got to get him in the right spot.”
Let’s say the Chiefs can put Jones in the right spot, they still have to stop Hurts on the ground.
Against the Chiefs, Titans quarterback Malik Willis had eight carries for 40 yards. One of their most effective plays was using a run-pass-option.
Malik Willis + Derrick Henry Read-Option = Unfair
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) November 7, 2022
The RPO is what the Eagles do best.
Hurts has rushed 184 times this season for 823 yards, 259 yards after contact, and 15 touchdowns. He has 33 RPO runs for 211 yards, 84 yards after contact, and six of those touchdowns.
The Chiefs have a near-impossible task of stopping the Eagles’ ground game. In the end, this will be the deciding factor.
Stopping the blitz.
When the Eagles decide to throw the ball in Super Bowl LVII, they should expect pressure.
Chiefs only blitz on 24.6% of opposing quarterback drop backs this season, which is the lowest rate for Spagnuolo since he became their defensive coordinator. The Chiefs will be looking to increase that percentage on Sunday.
When pulling at the numbers, Hurts has the NFL’s second-best passer rating (105.6) when not blitzed, but the 22nd-ranked passer rating when blitzed (90.0). He’s also the fourth most sacked quarterback (17) when facing a blitz, per PFF.
That’s a problem.
One way that Hurts has avoided the blitz is using his legs. Earlier this season against the Chicago Bears, center Jason Kelce noticed the blitz coming through the middle. Hurts’ changes the play to a keep and Kelce is able to make two blocks opening a huge gap up the middle.
🚨 𝗧𝗢𝗨𝗖𝗛𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗡
Jalen Hurts 22 yard run inEagles: 10⇡
Bears: 6[2Q | 0:43]#PHIvsCHI | #FlyEaglesFly
— Philadelphia Eagles Central (@pheaglescentral) December 18, 2022
Also, if the Chiefs plan to bring a lot of pressure from linebackers or safeties, this will leave A.J Brown one-on-one, which could be a recipe for disaster.
Just look at what he did to Titans cornerback Kristian Fulton earlier this year:
Once the Chiefs bring a blitz, this leaves the Eagles’ receivers in one-on-one situations and the potential to expose the Chiefs’ secondary.
Rushing the passer, without the blitz.
Patrick Mahomes will be facing off against the best pass rush in the league. Four of their pass rushers had double-digit sacks this season. Because of this, the Eagles don’t need to blitz much. In their 70 total sacks, only eight have come from a blitz.
Plus, Mahomes is also known to be able to handle a blitz very well. Mahomes has the second most passing yards (1,449) and the third highest completion percentage (67.6) when facing a blitz, per PFF.
The biggest issue for them will be protecting the edge. Chiefs right tackle Andrew Wylie has given up the second most hurries in the league (39) and also allowed nine sacks this season, which is fourth highest in the league, per PFF.
Coverage sack here from the Titans. Third and short, man coverage across the board. No separation at all. A wide rusher comes from the right, T/E stunt to the left. Mahomes takes his eyes away from downfield and ends up walking himself into the sack. @ArrowheadLive pic.twitter.com/yCeVmqp7Rr
— Playoff James (@CJScoobs) November 8, 2022
Against the Titans Mahomes was brought down four times and they ended up losing that game 20-17.
Another look at the #Titans attacking the #Chiefs' left side of the O-line
Read blitz off the slide & this time TEN keeps 5 on the rush (Add)#ArtofX x #NFL pic.twitter.com/InkK0dL4Fx
— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) November 7, 2022
Good news for the Eagles, Wylie will be facing off against the third highest sack leader, Haason Reddick. He’s had a total of 821 snaps on the defensive line and 663 of them have been on the left side.
This will be the matchup of the day!
The Eagles are just better.
When it comes down to it. the Eagles are just the better team. They have the better rush, they have the better receivers, and they can rush the passer.
Yes, the Chiefs do have players that are generational talent. They have two best offensive linemen in football, guard Joe Thuney and center Creed Humphrey. Chris Jones is the best interior pass rusher in the NFL. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is a wizard.
But football is a team sport, and the Eagles can win by playing to their strengths. Their quick decision making and improvision make them hard to stop. Mahomes is a great quarterback but outside of Travis Kelce, can their other receivers get open against one of the best secondaries in the league?
Well, it will be tough.
In the end, the Chiefs will most likely win the race in the long run. This is their third Super Bowl appearance in four years. They are just getting started.
But on Sunday, Mahomes’ super-powers just won’t be enough. The Eagles should walk away with a 34-24 win to end one of their most impressive seasons in franchise history.
