A rebellion by five separate rightwing caucuses within the Conservative party has continued the turbulence for Rishi Sunak’s leadership, although the government’s flagship Rwanda bill passed its first Commons hurdle.
The legislation was designed to overcome concerns raised by the supreme court, which ruled last month that the previous policy for deporting people to Rwanda violated domestic and international law.
Sunak had been desperately trying to woo rebel MPs to support his legislation, but each group in the “five families” decided they could not support the government’s draft legislation, saying before the vote that “the bulk of us will abstain”.
The looe alliance claims to represent more than 100 MPs. However, it appears that fewer than 30 deliberately abstained on Tuesday night – others were absent for legitimate reasons – and none voted against.
So what happens next for:
… the legislation itself?
The bill will go into a committee stage, giving disgruntled Tory MPs the chance to air their grievances with the legislation as it stands, with further votes on it in the new year.
The rebel groups are prepared to table amendments which they hope will “materially improve the bill and remove some of its weaknesses”.
But they have said they are prepared to vote against it at the third reading if the prime minister does not take their views onboard.
Shortly after the vote, Sunak said he will work to put his emergency legislation into law “so that we can get flights going to Rwanda and stop the boats”.
He will need to appease the likes of the rightwing European Research Group (ERG) of MPs while ensuring amendments enable the likes of the One Nation Conservatives to also support the bill, as they have said they will not back it if it is on the brink of breaching the law.
… Sunak’s leadership?
Not a single Conservative MP voted against the bill. But the prime minister’s authority has not been unscathed.
The fact that the “five families” – the ERG, New Conservatives, Common Sense Group, the Conservative Growth Group and Northern Research Group – warned they could vote against the bill at a third reading means Sunak faces a bumpy road.
After the groups met in a parliamentary committee room named after Harold Wilson on Tuesday night, Mark Francois told reporters on behalf of all of them: “Wilson once said a week is a long time in politics, and by that time a month is certainly a long time. So I’ll speak to you all in January.”
It means many Tory MPs could still stick the knife in as the legislation passes through parliament.
Would-be challengers including Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, recent departees from the Home Office, are already waiting and sniping from outside of cabinet.
… the Tory party’s approach to immigration?
The bill, which would deem Rwanda safe in British law, is not guaranteed to shut down all legal challenges by anyone seeking to block a deportation to the central African country.
Sunak wants to claim it is a “deterrent” to those seeking to come to the UK as part of a plan to convince voters the Tories are offering a credible pathway to halting small boat crossings of the Channel.
The initial costs had already risen from £140m to £290m, even before the Home Office was this week ordered by a parliamentary committee to disclose the full bill.
Arguably this vote was a huge moment for the Tory right to make their mark in this flagship legislation, given their numbers, as they had repeatedly criticised the bill for being too weak.
Now the prime minister faces challenges from moderates in his own cabinet, if the European court of human rights were to issue emergency orders against the flights.
