Will either side of politics have a crack at fixing the Newcastle container terminal mess in the lead-up to the NSW election in March?
Probably not.
The port privatisation deals, which penalise the Port of Newcastle consortium financially if it develops a freight terminal rivalling Botany and Kembla, have been a black eye on the face of the conservative state government for six years now.
The main architects of the once-secret and arguably anti-competitive lease deals, Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian, are far enough removed from the government to justify new premier Dominic Perrottet agreeing to find a solution to the legal and financial imbroglio.
And Labor could seize the mantle and promise to resolve the issue while spending the next six months hammering the government over a deal which hurts the Hunter and wider NSW regional economy and seemingly flies in the face of Liberal ideals.
Or the Nationals could exert maximum pressure on their Coalition partners, having already publicly promoted a Newcastle freight terminal as a cheaper, faster alternative to shipping northern NSW farm produce out of southern Sydney.
But at what cost?
The NSW Ports consortium paid $5.07 billion for a 99-year lease on Port Botany and Port Kembla with the understanding those two freight hubs would have a free run at the state's container market for decades.
Last year, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission lost a court case against NSW Ports in which it alleged the port deeds were anti-competitive. The full bench of the Federal Court heard an ACCC appeal against that ruling in February and has not yet handed down its judgment.
How much would a NSW government have to compensate NSW Ports for allowing Newcastle into the field? The Newcastle Herald has heard figures between $300 million and $1 billion.
That might have been slightly more palatable when the state budget was in surplus, but not now.
What do the Libs have to gain politically?
Very little in a region which doesn't look like abandoning its Labor MPs any time soon. Perrottet has not set foot in NSW's second city since taking office 337 days ago.
And the same could be said of Labor. The opposition has a realistic shot of winning government for the first time since 2011, but, if it does, the key political battles will be in Sydney, not the Hunter.
A new Labor government, facing budgetary pressures, will not want to be saddled with such a massive spend.
For the Nats, fixing the port fight could help Dave Layzell hold Upper Hunter (5.8-point margin), but he will probably do that anyway.
The junior coalition partner may continue to huff and puff on behalf of its farming base, but not so much as to make an already vulnerable government look even more dysfunctional. The nuclear (Barilaro) option of threatening to blow up the coalition will not be on the table.
If you're looking for either side to bite the bullet on unpicking the port deals between now and March 25, don't hold your breath.
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