In the past three years, European leaders have weathered Brexit, the pandemic and the energy crisis, but it turns out that the biggest threat to the EU’s unity and security has come from within.
All week, ministers and EU leaders have been closing ranks to try to prevent the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, from derailing plans to greenlight the start of EU membership talks with Ukraine and a new €50bn (£43bn) facility to help the country pay its bills over the coming years.
Leaders will gather in Brussels on Thursday and Friday in one of the most pivotal summits in recent years. “This is a make or break moment for the EU,” said Pedro Marquez, vice-president of the Socialist and Democratic group, which comprises 142 MEPs.
What is at stake?
The summit is largely about agreeing and setting priorities for a new budget for the next three years. Orbán’s threat to veto the funds for Ukraine and block enlargement talks has overshadowed everything. His threats are different to before, with two letters to the European Council flagging his opposition to extending support for Kyiv.
Rows may also erupt on allocations for migration – about €2bn has been set aside – and potentially the Middle East, with calls for sanctions on Israeli settlers involved in violence in the West Bank likely to be divisive. Antisemitism and Islamophobia are expected to be raised too.
What if Orbán gets his way?
Ukraine’s foreign minister has said Kyiv can barely contemplate a negative decision on the €50bn. Failing to show unity in support of enlargement would have “devastating strategic consequences”, Dmytro Kuleba said in Brussels this week.
The Ukrainian deputy prime minister Olha Stefanishyna has said that if Orbán gets his way it will be a “failure of the entire bloc”.
Outside Ukraine it would also play badly, say political analysts, and undermine the EU’s credibility as a functioning organisation.
“If Ukraine doesn’t get the money, that would be really a catastrophe,” said Georgina Wright, a senior fellow and director of the Institut Montaigne’s Europe programme in France. “The fact that Hungary can hold up support to Ukraine is worrying. Commitment to the EU’s future security is key. I think it does pose longer-term strategic questions about how the EU can continue to function if one member state can hold up the whole thing.”
Is there a plan B?
On Ukraine funds, yes. EU leaders can extricate the Ukraine facility from the wider budget, and the 26 countries can decide themselves to raise the €50bn.
The mechanism could be to extend the current funds or conclude a separate multilateral agreement between each government. But EU leaders are wary that this also risks signalling a weakening of support. One diplomat said: “We are the EU, the preferred approach is to do this as the EU.”
Has anything like this happened before?
Yes. In 2011, David Cameron nearly derailed a eurozone crisis plan by vetoing a new EU-wide treaty to tackle the issue. In the end, the other 27 member states pressed ahead with their own accord, isolating the UK and setting it on course for its 2020 exit from the bloc.
In 2020, leaders also went to the brink as they tried to clinch an agreement on a Covid recovery fund. After a summit that stretched into five days, a deal was finally sealed at 5.30am. Fears of a repeat marathon have been fuelled by reports that canteen staff at the EU summit building have been asked to work on Saturday.
What about the perception outside the EU?
Diplomats admit a failure will play very badly in Washington and be a boon to Vladimir Putin. “If Republicans [in the US] are already saying ‘why should we do this, the EU should be doing this?’ and then the EU doesn’t, then it will weaken efforts to get defence budgets in the US passed,” a source said. “The converse also applies: if the EU passes this then it will be a boost for [Joe] Biden.”
But a failure would also raise deeper questions about democracy in the EU. Wright said: “Diplomats here often see the EU as this beacon and model of democracy, but if you go around the rest of the world they say ‘look at what is happening inside the EU. You’ve got illiberal parties, far-right parties, authoritarian leaders, you’re not exactly a beacon of democracy.’
“It does pose real strategic questions about the EU’s influence internationally and question the normative effect of discourse [like Orbán’s]. I think this will affect the EU’s ability to influence countries around the world.”
Can Hungary be penalised?
Hungary’s voting rights could be removed under what is known as an article 7 procedure. There is huge reluctance to pull such a trigger. The diplomat said: “I think this is about being in the club. It is a very big step to take against a fellow member state.” However, EU leaders believe that if Hungary does successfully derail decisions this time, they will have to start that conversation.
In the longer term, unanimous voting is likely to be jettisoned in an enlarged 35- or 36-state EU, with lawmaking decisions expected to be taken on a majority basis.
