Found a few minutes during my NFL training camp trip to get to some of your questions. Here are some answers for you in a (quick-ish) mailbag …
From No Pressure (@Gon_Ride): What percentage of chance would you give Dak to leave Dallas and enter free agency next offseason?
Let’s put that at 10%.
I just think in the end, these things get done. Do the Dallas Cowboys have misgivings about jumping on the quarterback cost escalation train? Clearly. But the market has defined itself. It was interesting for me, in talking to COO Stephen Jones last week, to hear a level of contentment in how deals for Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff got done.
I wasn’t expecting it, but there was almost a sense of relief in his tone.
“It seems like it’s hit a peak,” he told me. “It used to be everybody was jumping each other. … Lawrence got 55, which was the high-water mark that [Joe] Burrow set. [Years ago], it didn’t matter if you were the best or you were [Patrick] Mahomes, you just leapfrogged the next guy. You’re not seeing that now. It’s kind of hit that ceiling.”
If I’m Prescott and I’m reading that, my baseline is $55 million per year, with stronger structure and guarantees that the aforementioned four guys got this offseason. And I think that creates a real pathway to a deal getting done. I’m not saying it absolutely will happen. But I’d feel better about it if I were a Cowboys fan than I did a month ago.
From Jackson (@actionjv2020): Will Braden Fiske win Rookie of the Year?
Jackson, I think Fiske has a good chance.
First of all, the guy has played a ton of football. In college, he started 43 of 58 games played for two schools over six seasons. He’s seen a lot, and done a lot, and generally, those guys translate to the NFL faster. Second, as a defensive lineman, he plays a position that translates fairly quickly to the NFL. And third, and this is important, he’s in a good environment to perform.
Just last year, a rookie defensive tackle, Kobie Turner, had nine sacks for the Los Angeles Rams. Another rookie, edge rusher Byron Young, had eight. Now, he and Fiske and his old Florida State teammate-Rams first-rounder Jared Verse join those two. No, Aaron Donald won’t be around like he was to take attention away from Turner and Young last year. But Fiske will have the benefit of being in that youthful group, which should create favorable matchups.
Now, if you ask if Fiske will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year, that’s a different question. Where we are right now, I might be inclined to pick Minnesota’s Dallas Turner or Seattle’s Byron Murphy II. But I certainly think Fiske could be in play for the award.
From Mitch Beiter (@MitchBeiter91): How much longer is Matthew Stafford on the Rams?
Mitch, it’s a good question given how his contract adjustment does create the chance for the Rams to walk away after 2024, if everyone sees fit to make that happen. For the record, I don’t believe that’s what will happen—the Rams see Stafford as being in for a very big year, and I personally found a content, happy quarterback when I hung with No. 9 for a few minutes at the team’s camp at Loyola Marymount.
What’ll be interesting to see is if the Rams have a big swing in them, if such an opportunity comes along closer to the trade deadline. Obviously, Sean McVay and Les Snead aren’t averse to rolling the dice, and for the first time in a long time, the team is dealing with a full complement of draft picks and a clean cap situation.
Who that guy might wind up being, I don’t know. You obviously would want to keep an eye on looming contract negotiations at their need positions—one example could be Patrick Surtain II’s talks with the Denver Broncos. Regardless, such a swing would be a good indication that they don’t plan to detach from their quarterback.
From Ronnie (@Tray4o): Which first-time head coach is best set up to have a successful first season?
I’d say the first one is Jim Harbaugh, and I say that because of who he is as a coach, and what the Los Angeles Chargers have coming back. The additions of Joe Alt, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards give Harbaugh a shot to bring the sort of rugged offense that he’s always had, which will take the pressure off Justin Herbert and, I think, give the Chargers the best version they’ve had of their young gunslinger. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s first NFL unit should be pretty competitive, too, with the foundation the team has on the edges.
The next two that come to mind for me would be the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks. Atlanta’s been building for three years, and Raheem Morris put together a very impressive staff, and has been ready for years for his second shot. Plus, the Falcons play in the NFC South. And in a tougher division, I think Seattle has a shot because of the amount of rising second- and third-year players that could collectively take another step.
From Jason (@Mailman725): Favorite Sirius/XM channel listening while driving? Also, expectations for the Eagles this year? Thank you.
I don’t have Sirius in my car—I’m more of a podcast guy.
As for the Philadelphia Eagles, I think it’s fair to expect 11 wins or so. The team is always strong at the line of scrimmage, the run game should be revitalized with Saquon Barkley next to Jalen Hurts (remember what new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore did with Prescott and Zeke Elliott in the run game when those two were rookies). Defensively, the Eagles aggressively addressed their corner need by drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, and I think free agent addition Bryce Huff could wind up having 15 sacks for new DC Vic Fangio.
So what’s holding me back from going further with the Eagles? There’s been a ton of change in leadership. You have two new coordinators. Two generational leaders, one on each side of the ball, Jason Kelce on offense and Fletcher Cox on defense, retired. There’s pressure on head coach Nick Sirianni to win now. And I just wonder where all that takes the Eagles when the heat is turned up in the Philly pressure cooker. Bottom line: While I think they’re a playoff team, it’s hard for me not to see there being some bumps along the way.
From NFL Tips 4 U (@ForNfltips): Who wins the NFC North?
The Detroit Lions will repeat as NFC North champs, but it won’t be without a fight. I think it’s the best division in football. The Green Bay Packers should be back in the playoffs. The Chicago Bears are good enough to get there, too. And I don’t think, even in transition, the Minnesota Vikings will fall off with the coaching staff they have in place.
What separates the Lions, to me, is their strength along the lines of scrimmage, and how well-balanced the team has become. There are so many ascending young players on their roster. I also love the additions of D.J. Reader and Terrion Arnold.
I’m not sure if I’m going to pick Detroit to get to the Super Bowl, but the Lions are on my short list.
From Anthony (@a2low11): Timeline for Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk to return to Niners camp?
Anthony, that’s unpredictable. But I’d say they’re both practicing by Sept. 1.
Here are the next three years on Trent Williams’s contract: $20.9 million, $23.35 million and $33.06 million. So there’s an easy fix here—San Francisco could move some money from the balloon payment in 2026 into this year, and probably solve a problem that’s an outgrowth of giving another valuable Niner vet a raise (Christian McCaffrey). There’s also a bar to reach for Williams to try to clear now, with Penei Sewell at $28 million per year, and Tristan Wirfs a tick above that (making the big number at the end look not as big anymore).
The Brandon Aiyuk situation is much more complicated. What’s happened with the receiver market doesn’t help. But CeeDee Lamb getting a deal in Dallas could at least give the sides a roadmap to get out of this situation—with the Niners still motivated to keep Aiyuk long-term, and Aiyuk’s best fit still being playing for Kyle Shanahan.
From Curtis Allen (@curtis93969): You have been doing camp tours for a while now. What strikes you as something that the most successful teams do in camp that others do not?
Curtis, one thing I’ve trained myself to look for is efficiency in how good teams work—you can see it in how they move between drills, and how quickly they get from one snap to the next. Usually teams like that are player-led. And most good teams are player-led.
From JT Barczak (@jtbarczak): Do the Bears make a move for another pass rusher before the season?
J.T., I wouldn’t rule out the Bears bringing Yannick Ngakoue back, or kicking the tires on a Carl Lawson, Charles Harris or Shaq Lawson. If I were them, I’d call the New England Patriots on Matthew Judon, too. So why are they waiting?
Speaking, generally, oftentimes teams want to give their younger guys an opportunity early in camp to lay claim to available jobs. Fifth-rounder Austin Booker, to pick out a name, has really intriguing athleticism, and could wind up carving out a role alongside Montez Sweat, DeMarcus Walker and Jacob Martin in the rotation. It makes sense, to me, to see if he can before running out and bringing in a Band-Aid solution.
The other advantage they have here in the specific case of Ngakoue is that he played for them last year, which means, presumably, he wouldn’t need too much runway to play for Matt Eberflus again.
From Dan Kelley (@DanKelley66): Who does Matthew Judon play for in 2024?
I think the Patriots, but I’m less sure than I was a week ago.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Why the Cowboys Will Get Dak Prescott Signed.
