Just when you thought the NFL’s new league year was about as weird as we could tolerate, a blockbuster bit of news came out of Kansas City. Per multiple reports, the Kansas City Chiefs and receiver Tyreek Hill have come to an impasse in contract negotiations, and the team has allowed Hill and agent Drew Rosenhaus to seek a trade.
From there, things escalated very, very quickly. The Miami Dolphins gave up quite a haul for Hill: a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall), a 2022 second-round pick (No. 50) and fourth-round pick, and fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2023 draft. In addition, the Dolphins have already agreed to terms with Hill on a new four-year, $120 million contract extension, with $72.2 million guaranteed.
You can imagine the Arrowhead faithful hyperventilating at the thought of Hill wearing another uniform, and there’s good reason for that. Hill was selected in the fifth round of the 2016 draft due to multiple off-field issues, but as an NFL player, he’s been about as valuable at his position as they come. Since his rookie season, Hill ranks eighth in the NFL in receptions (479), seventh in yards (6,630), and third in touchdowns.
There’s also this, which further explains Miami’s eagerness to get this done.
Over the last 5 seasons, Tyreek Hill has 26 Rec TD on passes thrown 20+ yards downfield.
That's 10 more than the next-closest player (Mike Evans) and 4 more than the Dolphins have as an entire team in that time. pic.twitter.com/VOiqjnCRuv
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 23, 2022
More than that, there’s the stuff that shows up on tape that reveals Hill’s value to the Chiefs beyond boilerplate stats. Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, Patrick Mahomes faced by fa the most dropbacks against two-deep coverage (389; Matthew Stafford was second with 311), and a primary reason is that if you present a single-high look to a receiver of Hill’s explosive tendencies all over the field, you are just begging for a house call. Hill irrevocably alters the geometry of his team’s passing game, and that’s a rare trait in any era. In this era, it’s more valuable than ever.
Hill thrived in the constraints constructed to at least limit the damage he can do to a defense, catching 56 passes on 78 targets against two-deep coverage for 720 yards, 454 air yards, 266 yards after the catch, and two touchdowns.
Last season, per Pro Football Focus, Hill caught 11 passes of 20 or more air yards on 28 targets for 398 yards and three touchdowns in an offense that became more and more reductive as head coach Andy Reid and his staff tried to get Patrick Mahomes’ more rogue tendencies under control. He is by far the Chiefs’ most prolific deep receiver — Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle combined for 13 deep catches and one deep touchdown last season.
But it’s not just that — it’s what Hill does after the catch that makes him such a major problem. You can also see how defenses react to his pre-snap movement as another indicator of how much he’s feared around the league. Hill’s 2.006 intended air yards and 585 yards after the catch in 2021 tell both sides of the same story.
What is that story? Without Tyreek Hill, Kansas City’s offense will be fundamentally different — and inarguably inferior — in a big hurry. And the film illustrates that quite perfectly.
Strap in, kids — we’re about to go on the hayride that is Tyreek Hill All-22.
