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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Matt Verderame

Why the 2023 AFC QB Class Could Be the Best in NFL History

AFC NFL Trevor Lawrence Aaron Rodgers Justin Herbert TODAY Sports Joe Burrow Lamar Jackson Russell Wilson Tua Tagovailoa

Three MVPs, three Super Bowl winners and four All-Pros. Plus, ascending Pro Bowlers Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.

Welcome to the AFC quarterback class of 2023.

For decades, the NFL has typically seen a few great signal-callers challenged by excellent teams and perhaps one or two other quarterbacks of commensurate stature within their conference. In this year’s AFC, at least half of the conference has someone under center capable of leading his team to a championship.

Although there are unknowns about the quarterbacks taken in the draft over the past couple of seasons, including Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett, most of the AFC’s signal-callers are the best the NFL has to offer. While everyone’s rankings are different, it’s almost impossible to list the top 10 quarterbacks in the league and not have at least eight from the AFC.

Mahomes, Herbert and Burrow are three of the top quarterbacks in the AFC.
Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports (Mahomes)&semi; Mark J&period; Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Herbert)&semi; Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports (Burrow)

And all of them—save for one—are in or entering their prime.

“The quarterbacks are definitely crazy on this side,” Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew says. “Just a ton of talent, a ton of young guys who are playing really well. I think you just have to bring it every week.”

Outside of 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers with the Jets, the AFC boasts obscene young talent at the game’s paramount position in Patrick Mahomes (27), Josh Allen (27), Lamar Jackson (26), Burrow (26), Herbert (25) and Lawrence (23).

Then there’s Deshaun Watson (27) and Tua Tagovailoa (25), both of whom have opportunities to join that class. This is to say nothing of Denver’s Russell Wilson, an eight-time Pro Bowler and a Super Bowl champion now under the direction of coach Sean Payton.

“You never want to say you’re used to it, but I think we’re kind of used to it now, because of the deep playoff runs we’ve made the last couple years,” says Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo of the AFC quarterbacks. “Seeing those types of players week in and week out, it proves a great challenge each week for our players. You can never let your guard down with those guys, they’re never out of the game, so it heightens our sense of awareness when we’re playing anybody, but particularly those guys.”

Currently at SI Sportsbook, Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers, Jackson and Herbert oversee the six teams given the best AFC title odds, with Lawrence coming in eighth behind Tagovailoa.

Entering the season, eight of the top 12 teams in terms of Super Bowl LVIII odds reside in the AFC.

“This is a quarterback league, and there’s a lot of good ones,” Colts coach Shane Steichen says. “You see that wave of guys leaving the league and now you’ve got this new wave coming in. I think it’s great for the league, and there’s a lot of them in the AFC. … You have to be ready to go every week when you’re going against that caliber of quarterback.”

Meanwhile, of the 16 projected NFC starting quarterbacks, only Jalen Hurts has been a first- or second-team All-Pro.

Since 1982, a conference has had a single All-Pro quarterback only three times.

So going into the 2023 schedule, here’s a fascinating question to ponder: Depending on which seven teams qualify for the AFC playoffs, would it be the greatest collection of talent at quarterback?

For the AFC, 1993 was the only year in which four current Hall of Fame quarterbacks made it, with Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, John Elway and Joe Montana all getting in. The 2004 group might soon join them with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees.

In 1994, the NFC had its top year, featuring San Francisco’s Steve Young and Green Bay’s Brett Favre, who combined for five MVP awards and two Super Bowl rings as starters. Additionally, Moon—then with Minnesota—and Dallas’s Troy Aikman were also there, marking the only time the NFC bracket had multiple selections.

In the years since, the most accomplished collection came in 2009, when the NFC produced Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, Rodgers, Brees and Favre. All told, the group was responsible for three titles and seven Super Bowl appearances, along with 48 Pro Bowl seasons, 10 first-team All-Pro honors, nine MVPs and an eventual four gold jackets.

Still, holes can be poked fairly easily. In 1993, all four of the aforementioned Hall of Famers were in their 30s, with Montana playing out his penultimate season and Moon in his age-37 campaign. In 2009, Warner was in his final season, McNabb was declining and about to be traded out of Philadelphia, and Romo was good but never elite.

Yet, returning to the current AFC crop, the combinations to be the best are clear.

Mahomes has already won two Super Bowls, two MVPs and been named a two-time first-team All-Pro. Rodgers has four MVPs and a title to his name, and Jackson is the league’s only current unanimous MVP.

Then there’s Allen and Burrow, who quarterback two of the NFL’s top five teams, while Lawrence is on a Jaguars team heavily favored to win the AFC South. Herbert is coming off his first postseason appearance and has one of the best statistical starts of any quarterback in NFL history, throwing for 14,089 yards and 94 touchdowns in his first three years. And should Wilson return to his Seattle form, he’d have to be considered among the best in the group.

So, it’s impossible to know how great this group will end up.

Lawrence, Herbert, Allen and Burrow all have elite talent but have a long way to go before being historically significant from an achievement standpoint. They could be phenomenal players who leave the game with unfulfilled potential, or as some of the greats to ever play. Watson and Tagovailoa could also end up winning championships, or extras in a larger drama.

But while projection is a dangerous game, it’s hard not to feel the AFC is embarking on a historic season, one remembered for unrivaled quarterback play.

16. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Entering his rookie season as the No. 2 pick in the draft, Stroud threw for 8,123 yards and 85 touchdowns against 12 interceptions during his two years as a starter with Ohio State.

15. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

While Richardson didn’t complete more than 56% of his throws in high school or college, his athletic profile and pocket skills are evident. He also has a massive right arm. Look for Steichen to get the best out of him in the ways he did with Herbert and Hurts.

14. Mac Jones, New England Patriots

As a rookie, Jones threw for 3,801 yards and 22 scores. Last year, with Matt Patricia masquerading as an offensive coordinator, those numbers dipped sharply to 2,997 yards and 14 touchdowns.

13. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pickett struggled as a rookie in 2022 with nine interceptions and only seven touchdown passes. However, he’s looked terrific this preseason, consistently throwing deep to second-year receiver George Pickens. If Pickett can stay healthy—he sustained two concussions last year—look for a big jump.

12. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

Tannehill isn’t flashy, but he gets results. The veteran is on the last year of his deal with the Titans and is looking to get them back to the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. He’ll need to improve on his past two seasons, which have seen a combined 34 touchdown passes.

11. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Wilson was downright awful in 2022, managing to win only four games. He now has Payton as his coach, but is again without receiver Tim Patrick for the year. Is there enough reason to believe Wilson isn’t in irreversible decline?

10. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders

Garoppolo won’t lose most games, but he’s also not going to elevate his cast. Garoppolo is in a familiar offense with coach Josh McDaniels, and also has Davante Adams on the perimeter and Hunter Renfrow in the slot. Is that enough for the Raiders to win? Maybe.

9. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Last year, Watson was atrocious in six games after being reinstated from an 11-game suspension. He completed 58.2% of his attempts with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Can he reclaim his past form when he was a star with the Texans?

8. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa is ranked in the middle because he’s an enigma at this point. When healthy, he’s a young, ascending quarterback surrounded by a smart coach and elite weapons. The problem is he sustained multiple concussions last year and has been consistently hurt dating back to Alabama.

7. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson has Todd Monken as his new offensive coordinator, and has a pair of arriving receivers in veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers. The bet here is Jackson throws for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career if he avoids injuries, but the Ravens’ offense will likely take time to get rolling.

6. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Rodgers should improve on his performance with the Packers last year in which he failed to throw for 300 yards even once. However, there’s also reason for concern. The Jets’ offensive line is a glaring issue, and Rodgers turns 40 years old during the season. He could be the ultimate boom-or-bust candidate in 2023.

5. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence was largely seen as a generational prospect coming out of Clemson in 2021 before Urban Meyer coached him. Under Doug Pederson, Lawrence flourished in ’22, throwing for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns. Add in Calvin Ridley, and look out.

4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert needs to win a few big games at some point, but his talent is undeniable. Now paired with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, don’t be surprised if Herbert eclipses previous career highs of 7.5 yards per attempt and 38 touchdown passes.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen struggled with turnovers last year, committing a league-worst 19. However, he’s thrown for at least 35 touchdowns each of the past three seasons and has arguably the best arm in football. He’s a perennial top-five quarterback with MVP upside.

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Sam Greene/The Enquirer/USA TODAY Network

Burrow has dealt with injuries and horrid offensive lines early in his career, yet has two AFC championship game appearances and a conference title to his name. Surrounded by the best weapons in football, Burrow is an MVP favorite and could be the man who finally leads the Bengals to a ring.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes, 27, has won two Super Bowls, two Super Bowl MVPs and two NFL MVPs. Only Tom Brady and Joe Montana can match those accolades. As a five-year starter, Mahomes has two 5,000-yard seasons, and only once has he failed to throw for at least 37 touchdowns. He’s the best, hands down.

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