Tesla should report first-quarter deliveries on Wednesday and analysts are projecting the lowest quarterly performance in more than two years amid public backlash to Chief Executive Elon Musk's involvement with President Donald Trump and as the EV giant rolled out its refreshed version of its bestselling vehicle. TSLA advanced Tuesday.
Analysts in recent days and weeks have been hastily revising lower Q1 delivery expectations ahead of Wednesday's release. Along with first-quarter vehicle delivery data, Tesla will also post Wednesday Q1 production figures as well as energy storage deployed.
The company is expected to see Q1 vehicle deliveries increase 5.4% to 407,900 as of FactSet estimates, which have declined 10% since Jan. 31. However, Tesla investor relations' compiled delivery consensus number is 377,592, based on several analyst estimates. That would be the lowest since Q3 2022.
The most timely delivery estimates are between 315,000-369,000, which would be well below Q1 2024's 386,810. Tesla demand in China appears to be on pace with a year ago, according to Tesla insurance registration data. However, Tesla vehicle sales in the U.S. and Europe seem to have dropped dramatically, according to independent trackers of vehicle sales.
Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors, on Monday posted to X he believes Tesla deliveries will total 355,000 in Q1.
Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro early Monday lowered his price target on Tesla stock to 455 from 474, keeping a buy rating on the shares. The firm expects Q1 deliveries around 353,000 based on the rollout of the new Model Y as well as headwinds from "the anti-Elon Musk crowd."
Tesla Rivals BYD, XPeng, Xiaomi Report Surging Deliveries As China EV Sales Roll In
Gengaro added that as Musk has become closely aligned with President Donald Trump, Democrats' favorability rating on Tesla has plunged, which creates near-term sales headwinds.
Last week, a YouGov and Yahoo News survey of 1,677 U.S. adults between March 20-24 showed that 67% of respondents would not consider buying or leasing a Tesla vehicle. Thirty-seven percent of those polled Elon Musk was the "whole/part of the reason why."
Tesla faces similar brand destruction in Europe, where Musk has weighed in on the Ukraine war, German elections and much more.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a Tesla bull, on March 20 cut his Tesla stock price target to 410 from 430, but maintained an overweight rating. Most of Jonas' commentary was on falling vehicle deliveries. However, Jonas believes Tesla's "softer auto deliveries are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive 'pure play' to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics."
The bulk of Jonas' Tesla price target, along with many other bullish analysts, is outside the EV giant's EV business.
Tesla Deliveries And The Aftermath
While analysts already expect an underwhelming first quarter, the key to Wednesday's expected release could be full-year delivery revisions along with earnings expectations.
Analysts have already been revising Q1 and full-year earnings estimates, according to FactSet. FactSet's current consensus pegs first-quarter earnings rising 7% to 48 cents. That's down from 57 cents at the end of January and 74 cents at the end of last year. For the full year, FactSet pegs Tesla EPS increasing 13% to $2.74, down from $3.31 just before the Q4 earnings report in late January.
For 2025, analysts predict Tesla vehicle deliveries to increase 7% to 1.92 million units, but with more recent forecasts targeting flat to lower sales for the year.
Teslike on March 23 posted to X he believes Tesla will deliver less than 1.68 million vehicles in 2025.
That represents a 6% drop compared to the 1.79 million vehicles delivered in 2024, which was a slight decline vs. 2023.
"The company is now struggling to regain its momentum due to shifting brand perception in Western markets and increasing competition in China," Teslike wrote.
Separately, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk posted to X on Friday evening that his AI firm xAI has bought his social site X in a stock deal valuing the latter at $33 billion. Musk purchased Twitter, now X, for $44 billion in October 2022, selling a hefty portion of his Tesla stock to finance the deal.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA advanced 3.6% to 268.46, hitting 277.45 intraday, during Tuesday's stock market action. TSLA dropped 1.7% to 259.16 on Monday amid broader weakness and as Q1 delivery expectations came down.
On Friday, TSLA fell 3.5%. Shares did jump 6% for the week, snapping a nine-week losing streak, but hit resistance at the 200-day moving average. The stock is recovering after its March 11 low of 217.02. Entering Tuesday's stock market, TSLA was up around 19% since hitting its March low.
The stock is still well below its 50-day line. Investors should generally avoid stocks below the 200-day or even their 50-day lines.
The EV giant went into Tuesday's stock market trade down 35.8% so far in 2025, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 this year.
Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 7.44%. The ATR metric is available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool. It gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
In the current market, IBD suggests stocks with ATRs of 3% or below.
Tesla stock ranks fourth in the 35-stock IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 63 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 54 Relative Strength Rating and an 84 EPS Rating.
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