The ripple effects of Russia's war on Ukraine are set to be felt as far afield as Indonesia, with industry figures saying it will likely push up the price of the country's most popular food: instant noodles.
Last year, Indonesia imported about a quarter of its wheat, the main ingredient for instant noodles, from Ukraine.
Combined, Ukraine and Russia produce about one-third of the world's wheat exports.
However, with Ukraine's ports under siege and Ukrainian farmers forced to leave their fields to fight, major disruptions are expected in the supply chain.
Indonesia Consumers Association president Tulus Abadi said the country's 270 million people should expect the price of noodles to rise.
"This has to be anticipated because the chicken noodle or instant noodle that we eat, 100 per cent of their ingredients are imported," Mr Abadi said during a public webinar this month.
The head of Indonesia's Trade Ministry's research division, Kasan Muhri, said the conflict had not yet had a "significant impact" on wheat or instant noodle prices.
Mr Muhri said Indonesia still had around 1.2 million tonnes of wheat, enough for the next two months.
An increase in the price of instant noodles had been predicted, but the size of the increase depended on the duration of the war, he said.
"The potential of [a] price increase will be much smaller if the intensity of invasion doesn't last long," he told the ABC.
Possible impact on instant noodles in Australia
The price of noodles is also expected to rise in Australia, which — according to the World Instant Noodle Association — is the 19th-largest consumer of instant noodles in the world, eating 440 million servings in 2020.
Aisha Wilson, a 19-year-old Queensland University of Technology student, said her family bought a box of 30 packs of noodles every month.
"I don't know how to cook, and my cooking oftentimes is just taking its noodles and then adding meat or salads to it," she said.
"It's quick and simple, 10 minutes in the kitchen. Easy."
Ms Wilson was surprised to hear the war in Ukraine was expected to push up the price of instant noodles.
"You don't really have any idea what could possibly be affected by something like this," she said.
"[But], even as someone who eats a lot of instant noodles, at the end of the day, I'm more concerned for the people in Ukraine and Russia, and neighbouring countries."
Supply chain disruptions during the pandemic have already forced up the price of Mayora's Indonesia-made Bakmi Mewah instant noodles by 15 to 20 per cent, according to the company's Australian spokesperson, Anthonius Auwyang.
He said the war might push the price up even more.
While Mayora does not buy wheat from Ukraine, he said the war would affect the price of the company's instant noodles indirectly.
"[The war] will drive up the shipping cost to be more expensive and will indirectly increase the price of food ingredients," he said.
"The effect will be felt in the long run, but not really in the immediate future because Australia still supplies wheat to Indonesia."
Indofood — manufacturer of Indonesia's most-popular instant noodle brand, Indomie — did not respond to the ABC's request for comment.
However, the company's chief executive, Franciscus Welirang, earlier this month told Indonesian media that predictions its noodles would increase in price were speculation.
Mr Welirang said the company still had wheat imported from Ukraine in February last year.
"Up to this day, and the next month or two, I think there won't be any issues [with supplies]," he said.
According to the World Instant Noodles Association, rising costs were also being passed on to consumers in Japan, which is one of the top five consumers of the product in the world.
"Materials costs, including wheat and palm oils have increased and major manufacturers have decided to raise their prices by 5 to 12 per cent," a spokesperson said.
The manufacturers said they would lift their prices in June.
A staple food for some
Jakarta motorcycle taxi driver Budi Iswandi, who usually buys instant noodles in bulk, said he had noticed the prices had increased.
Unlike most Indonesians, Mr Iswandi does not like rice, so he eats instant noodles almost every day.
"I don't know if it's because of the war, but for sure the price of a pack went up by about 20 per cent the last time I bought it."
Instant noodles are considered "irreplaceable" in Indonesian society, especially during hard times.
Since the 1970s, instant noodles have helped limit malnutrition and provide base calories to Indonesians with lower incomes.
At least 13 billion packets of instant noodles are sold in Indonesia each year, accounting for 15 per cent of instant noodle consumption on earth.
Australian wheat exports set to rise
There is hope that a rise in the global wheat price could be somewhat offset by an increase in production in Australia.
Indonesia has traditionally been Australia's number one wheat market, according to Dave McKeon, chief executive of the peak organisation for grain farmers, GrainGrowers.
In 2018 and 2019, Indonesia had looked to the Black Sea region, which includes Ukraine, for wheat exports because of the drought in Australia, but last year, 41 per cent of its total wheat imports came from Australia.
"We had another bumper crop in Australia in 2021, a record size crop and a large exportable surplus. So there's plenty of grain to go to Indonesia," he told the ABC.
Indonesia imports more than 3 million tonnes of wheat for noodles each year from Australia, according to Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre (AEGIC) chief economist Professor Ross Kingwell.
Mr Kingwell predicted the demand for wheat for instant noodles would grow to 350,000 tonnes by 2030.
Agung Wicaksono, trade attaché of the Indonesia embassy in Canberra, agreed that demand for Australian wheat from Indonesia would probably increase, especially with the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in place and the two countries' geographical proximity.
"It's possible that the ongoing situation will encourage the two countries to maintain collaboration or even build a closer tie to maintain the supply chain," he said.
"A collaborative approach is needed in this situation … in terms of export and import, Indonesia and Australia complete each other."
Additional reporting by Hellena Souisa
