Red Bull faces a riskier outcome regarding Max Verstappen’s expected grid penalty for exceeding his 2024 Formula 1 engine allocation at this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix, compared to similar situations in 2022 and 2023.
While Red Bull has not yet confirmed if Verstappen is indeed set to take another ICE at the upcoming race at Spa – and is unlikely to do so before this is required by the rules ahead of opening practice on Friday if the new part has been fitted for that session – Motorsport.com has learned this is the case ahead of the Spa weekend commencing.
Team boss Christian Horner had said it was “inevitable that we'll take the next engine at some point” in the remainder of 2024 season, after Verstappen lost a brand new engine due to an electric problem in FP2 for the Canadian GP last month, which Honda was concerned had badly damaged a new internal combustion unit element.
Verstappen has been lumbered with grid penalties at the last two Belgian events, as Spa’s long straights and lengthy acceleration zones mean overtaking is easier around this course, especially for faster cars starting out of position.
In 2022, he started down on row seven due to several engine parts being replaced but shot back to reach the podium placings in just eight laps, then overcame team-mate Sergio Perez and Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz to hit the front well before the halfway point.
Then, last year, Verstappen started sixth due to a needing an extra gearbox – battling by Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and Perez after Oscar Piastri and Sainz had tangled on the opening lap ahead.
There will be plenty of interest in Verstappen’s performance this weekend – a second home race for the 26-year-old given the track’s proximity to the Netherlands and his half-Belgian heritage.
Red Bull is expected to convert his RB20 back to its pre-Hungary look in terms of its sidepod and engine cover bodywork for the Spa event, with Horner confirming last Sunday night at Budapest that “the car is a different specification again next weekend” given the lower downforce levels run at this track compared to the high downforce requirements in Hungary.
Verstappen is also heading into the weekend off the back of a difficult event at Budapest, where he was kept off the front row by the two McLaren drivers, beaten and embattled during the race, and crashed again with Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton.
The world champion also publicly chastised Red Bull over its in-race strategy calls and the limited amount of performance gained by its major, interchangeable, sidepod/cooling upgrade.
Verstappen has not won since the Spanish GP three rounds ago and admitted in Hungary “I'm thinking about it, yes”, when asked if he is currently worried about successfully defending his crown given McLaren’s current threat – despite leading Lando Norris by 76 points.
With all this to consider, Red Bull’s decision in enacting Verstappen’s expected engine change is not as straightforward as it was in 2022 and 2023 – in expecting him to carve through the field on a favourable layout.
Indeed, Horner said in Hungary that “listening to the drivers, particularly in the debrief just now, it sounds like we're getting back towards 2021 – well not as bad as 2021, but obviously as the cars are becoming more developed, they're becoming harder to follow [and] so the dirty air is becoming a bigger issue”.
Therefore, Verstappen is facing a combination of stiffer competition and a more challenging run through the pack with the increased dirty air effect.
But he and Red Bull could also do with a morale-boosting win, with victory heading into the 2024 summer break a lift for a squad where Verstappen has repeatedly called for extra effort to see off the McLaren threat, plus the irregular challenges posed by Ferrari and Mercedes this year.
“I do look forward to going on holiday, but I am also looking forward to improving the car,” he said in Hungary. “I know the people around me are doing everything they can, but we need more.”
Of the five races that kick off the season run-in post-summer break – Zandvoort, Monza, Baku, Singapore and Austin – the Italian GP is another place where grid penalties have previously been common.
But DRS trains have made overtaking at Monza less straightforward than is commonly assumed, and it is also a race where Red Bull’s aerodynamically efficient design and powerful Honda engine would be expected to prevail.
The bumps and kerb-riding requirements of Baku and Singapore represent an obvious threat to Red Bull’s chances given the team’s ongoing weakness with such track features.
Verstappen lost a critical amount of time to Norris at Budapest’s chicane that might have gotten him onto the front row given the Briton did not get to complete a second Q3 run.
Austin then comes late in the year and with Verstappen’s engine parts pool already stretched now.
That all makes Spa the most logical place for Red Bull and Verstappen to accept a penalty, with its chances of recovering here still higher than elsewhere.
But it would be a major boost to in-form McLaren and risk missing the summer break encouragement a walk-off victory would provide to the team.
