Defence will be the key to Nottingham Forest’s season as Steve Cooper seeks to navigate a path to Premier League survival.
Scoring more than 40 and conceding less than 50 will see Forest stay clear of the drop through method and resilience rather than free-flowing attacking football, but in a campaign in which out-performing at least three teams is everything, the side do need to re-tune after eight months of simply being better than those that they face.
Cooper will start the campaign wedded to the back-three system that framed the shape of the side but possession will be a more precious commodity. Recruitment to this point has centred on adding depth to the ranks of disciplined centre halves and replacing the wing backs with others equally adept in fast breaks and counters. Forest expect to have less ball and more pressure and recognise the need for faster transitions and rigid defensive structures.
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Prioritising the signing of Dean Henderson emphasises this point. Forest had two of the leading Championship keepers last season in Brice Samba and Ethan Horvath, and recruitment would have been seen as unnecessary by most supporters. However, having been alerted to Henderson’s want for guaranteed starts, Forest gave Samba’s salary demands short shrift and pounced on a player with a far better all-around game.
Midfield recruitment is ongoing, but the blend will change to add more bite. Cooper rotated Jack Colback, Ryan Yates, Philip Zinckernagel and James Garner before Max Lowe’s injury, generally deploying a ball winner, a box-to-box set-piece specialist and a luxury player, but the blend will change with two ball winners and a number ten in the Morgan Gibbs-White mould high on the list of targets.
So can Forest score 40 goals? Leeds United (42), Everton (43) and Southampton (43) all got there last season and survived, but their defences were woeful, conceding a combined total of 212.
Brennan Johnson has blitzed League One and Championship football. He’ll stay at the top table even if Forest fall short, and his presence should produce the highest goal involvement statistic of any player in the squad. Taiwo Awoniyi is a relative unknown, but his credentials are well-researched, and his output will be critical to the plan.
While the new founded ambition and energy of the club was born on the pitch, the supporters feel a sense of pride, connection, and ownership unmatched in recent times. We have a huge part to play in getting our team over the line. Banners and chanting, coach trips and speakers, shirt sales and positivity.
There will be bumps in the road, and occasional frustration when the bus is parked firmly in front of the Trent End, but this is how Forest survive their return to the Premier League.
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