India is set for a major political upheaval in 2026, redrawing parliamentary constituencies to reflect changes in population.
While proponents claim this will ensure fair representation based on demographic realities, critics argue it will punish southern states that have followed national guidelines to control their populations and reward provinces – mostly in the north – that haven’t.
They also point out the move will be electorally advantageous to Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP party, which draws its core support from the Hindi-speaking heartland in the north.
By increasing the number of seats in this region, the critics say, the prime minister is looking to strengthen the ruling party’s grip on power for the foreseeable future.
What is delimitation?
Delimitation is the exercise of redrawing parliamentary and state assembly constituencies to reflect changes in population.
It is conducted periodically by the Delimitation Commission, an independent body established by an act of Parliament. The goal is to ensure more populous states get more seats in the legislature.
The exercise was previously undertaken in 1951, 1961 and 1971.
In 1976, when the population was at around 550 million, the number of seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the parliament, was capped at 543 so as not to penalise states that had reduced their population growth rates, The Hindu reported.
The freeze was meant to encourage all states to adopt population control measures without fearing a loss of parliamentary representation.
In 2002, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, led by the BJP, extended the freeze until at least 2026.
Mr Modi is in no mood to keep the status quo.
There is now concern that his government will revert to using the most recent census figures for the exercise, giving more seats to northern states with higher population growth like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and few, if any, to southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Opposition to delimitation
Tamil Nadu is at the forefront of the political opposition to delimitation, fearing an unfair reduction in its political influence.
State chief minister MK Stalin convened an all-party meeting last week to discuss strategies to counter the potential impact of the exercise.
The consensus among the parties attending the meeting, which the state chapter of the BJP notably skipped, was clear: states that have successfully controlled their populations should not be penalised with reduced political representation.
“I thank all the parties that attended the meeting and unanimously supported the proposal brought by the chief minister regarding the delimitation process,” state finance minister Thangam Thennarasu said afterwards. “Except for a few, most political parties have aligned with the state government to protect their rights.”
How Modi and BJP stand to gain
A key reason why delimitation is controversial is its potential political impact. The BJP has struggled to gain traction in southern states, particularly Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Telangana, where regional parties and the Congress hold sway.
In contrast, the party enjoys wide support in the north, especially in Hindi-speaking states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh.
If parliamentary seats are allocated based on the latest population figures, the BJP stands to gain significantly from the additional representation that the Hindi heartland is set to land.
The main beneficiary states of delimitation — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan — are already BJP strongholds. Increasing their parliamentary representation will likely give the party an even bigger share of Lok Sabha seats, making it harder for opposition alliances to challenge Mr Modi’s dominance in future elections.
Uttar Pradesh, for example, could see its share of Lok Sabha constituencies jump from 80 to 128 and Bihar from 40 to 70.
In contrast, Tamil Nadu with 39 seats, Karnataka with 28 and Andhra with 25 may not see significant changes, limiting the ability of opposition parties to balance out the BJP’s widening numerical advantage in the north.
Impact on South India
Political analysts argue that delimitation could entrench the BJP’s electoral supremacy for the next several decades. If the number of seats in northern states rises significantly, the party could win elections even with a lower overall vote share.
This could make it virtually impossible for opposition parties to unseat Mr Modi’s government, even if they perform well in southern India and other non-BJP strongholds.
“The states that scrupulously followed population control measures are now at a disadvantage versus states that did not,” A Saravanan, a spokesperson for Tamil Nadu’s governing DMK party, said.
“The population control measures contributed to the economy of this country; we contributed to its growth; we listened to you. But now you want to penalise us.”
Federal home minister Amit Shah, Mr Modi’s chief lieutenant, has sought to reassure critics saying “not a single seat” will be lost due to delimitation.
But critics point out that while southern states may not lose seats, the significant increase for northern states will effectively dilute their political power.
“He has not mentioned how many seats he is going to increase in the northern states,” Anbumani Ramadoss, leader of Pattali Makkal Katchi, a regional party in Tamil Nadu, said. “So, our question is: why are you penalising us when we have done well in the government of India’s programmes of population stabilisation?”
