Mercedes has admitted that a host of factors in its favour at the Qatar Grand Prix could help it deliver another Formula 1 victory.
While the team is still struggling to fully understand just why it was in a class of its own in Las Vegas last weekend, as George Russell led home Lewis Hamilton for a 1-2 finish, it feels this weekend’s race at Losail gives it logical reasons to feel bullish.
The lack of low-speed traction zones, where Mercedes has struggled, allied to an absence of the type of slow corners where the drivers have battled understeer and need to rotate the car with sliding, should help alleviate some of the key weaknesses with tyre overheating on the W15 car.
Furthermore, the absence of bumps on asphalt that was resurfaced ahead of last year’s race, plus a closed smooth track surface that helps with not abusing tyres so much, are other elements in its favour.
Something else that could prove critical also is that temperatures are much cooler than last year, with the Mercedes known to be more competitive when it is not so hot.
Speaking before track action got under way, Russell said that even before the squad began travelling to the final triple-header of the season, it always felt Qatar offered it the best chance of the last three races.
“Coming into the trip, this was the one we had our eyes on, to be honest,” he explained.
“That was to the point that I wanted to put an older engine in for Vegas, to have the freshest one possible for this weekend.
“There is the smoothness of the tarmac, the coldness, as it's no secret when we get the car in that right window, it flies.”
Russell feels that one of the lessons coming out of Las Vegas is that the Mercedes is only competitive in a narrow operating window – which is something the team needs to work on for next year.
“When we go to other circuits, when it's really bumpy, we've got to lift the car up, and got to make it really, really soft,” he said. “That's not how our car operates. It's not how all of these cars operate - but we clearly lose a lot more than our rivals in those conditions.
“We just need to work on making a broader downforce window next year, because clearly it's way too peaky now. And that's maybe also why we've made so many mistakes as well this season, because you just fall off that cliff.”
Mercedes’ main rival in Las Vegas was Ferrari, which was quick until the point it hit a tyre graining phase that ultimately derailed its race.
But after a season where the hopes of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz have suffered a bit because of high-speed bouncing, the fast nature of the Losail circuit could make this quite a tricky weekend for them again.
Sainz in particular felt that out of the final three races of the year, this was going to be the most difficult one.
“On paper [this is] the biggest challenge we’re going to face since we’ve introduced these upgrades to the car that have made us perform better,” he said.
“If you look at Mexico sector two, Austin sector one, Vegas sector one, whenever there have been high-speed corners in a sector we haven’t been in the top four cars. We’ve never been fast.
“So you join the fact that this track is smooth, cold, and it’s only these types of corners, then on paper we should struggle.
“But at the same time, one thing is to struggle on performance, another thing is the amount of points you take from the weekend. We need to maximise that.
“It could still be a tough weekend in terms of performance but it could be a good weekend in terms of points, so I’m hopeful we can execute a good weekend and maximise everything.”
