Since 15 March 2011, the Syrian civil war has destroyed some of the oldest cities in the world, killed upwards of half a million people, and created the greatest refugee crisis since WWII.
Nine years on, the fighting continues. Here is a breakdown of who is involved, why they are fighting, and what to watch as the war enters its tenth year.
How did the war begin?
The war began as an internal affair, when a peaceful uprising against the country’s authoritarian ruler - Bashar al-Assad - escalated after a brutal government crackdown.
Protests were sparked by the arrest and alleged torture of 15 schoolchildren, who graffitied revolutionary phrases in the southern city of Daraa, inspired by the so-called “Arab Spring”.
But the war is no longer a conflict between those for and against Assad. It quickly became a proxy battleground for foreign powers, and a site of religious and ethnic conflict, as well as a civil war.
Who is involved?
1. The Syrian government and its allies
Since 2015, Russia has provided President Assad with strong military support, as well as protection within the UN. An ally of Syria’s since the Cold War, Russia claims to target “terrorists” only, but activists have exposed attacks against mainstream rebels and civilians.
Iran is also a long-standing supporter of Syria’s Shia, Alawite ruler. It has provided elite soldiers, weaponry and intelligence to his war, as well as training Shia militiamen from groups such as Hezbollah.
This alliance has been ruthless, cornering the opposition over a nine-year assault that has included mass-tortures, airstrikes and chemical weapon attacks.
2. The opposition and their allies
The Free Syrian Army (FSA) was founded in 2011 by Syrian Army defectors. It is now an umbrella for various rebel groups, united in their opposition to Assad— but not much else.
They range from pro-democracy fighters to more conservative factions such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, formerly connected to the Salafist Al-Nusra Front.
The opposition has had military support from Turkey, plus financial aid from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who fear Iran’s growing influence in the region.
They have also received support from the US, UK and France, but this has weakened over time, particularly since President Trump’s administration in the US.
3. The Kurds
Kurds are a Middle Eastern ethnic group populating the mountainous borderlands of Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran and Armenia. Although they count around 30 million, they have never had a country of their own, and have often suffered as minorities.
When civil war broke out in 2011, Kurdish forces known as the People’s Protection Units (YPG) took control of Syria’s north-eastern, majorly Kurdish region, called Rojava.
Today, it is defended by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): an alliance between the YPG, YPJ (the Women’s Protection Units) and Arab, Turkmen, Armenian and Chechen militiamen.
But rather than warring with Assad, the SDF became engaged in another conflict:
4. Islamic State
In 2014, IS expanded from Iraq into the Syrian city of Raqqah, initiating a long war. The SDF recovered Raqqah in 2017, and finally declared victory over IS in March 2019, in the city of Baghuz.
They did not fight this battle alone, but were supported by a global alliance of 79 countries.
5. America
The US led this global alliance, and American troops fought alongside the Kurds for years.
But after IS’s defeat, President Trump ended military support for the SDF and announced a withdrawal of troops. Although US troops remain in Syria, their former allies were left exposed and a new front in the war was initiated.
6. Turkey
Three days after Trump’s announcement, in October 2019, Turkey attacked Rojava.
Turkey has supported Syrian rebels since the start of the war, including military enforcement since 2017, but this has not extended to the SDF.
Turkey has a turbulent history with Kurds, who constitute 15-20% of its population. Since the 1970s, The Kuridstan Workers’ Party (PKK) has pursued an armed struggle for independence in Turkey, resulting in 40,000 deaths and many more displacements.
President Erdoğan fears Kurdish autonomy will fuel separatism within Turkey, something the government has fought for decades.
7. Israel
In the south, the Syrian government faces further threat from Israel.
Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes from the occupied Golan Heights, targeting Syrian institutions and Iranian military bases. As well as regional rivalry, one of Israel’s major concerns is Iran’s support of Hezbollah, a Lebanese group formed to fight Israeli occupation.
To sum up:
- Assad and his allies fight rebels in the northwest
- The Kurds and a global alliance fought IS further east, but the former have since faced intervention from Turkey
- Down south, Israel launches its own attacks
Layers of foreign involvement in the once revolution have created a highly complex and protracted situation, with no foreseeable resolution.
What to watch in 2020
1. Idlib
The north-western province of Idlib remains the rebels’ final stronghold.
President Assad’s attempts to “liberate” the region has resulted in almost a million displacements since December alone. It’s the biggest exodus the war has ever seen.
Displacement camps are overflowing and, as a result, many children have died from the cold. Even aid workers have become displaced, with the UN urgently calling for donations.
Turkey is heavily involved in supporting the rebels, who seem to be primarily Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. They have successfully beat back the Syrian Army in spite of its strong Russian enforcement.
On 5 March 2020, a ceasefire was agreed between Presidents Erdoğan and Putin. It is not, however, the first of its kind.
2. Rojava
Since Turkey invaded its Kurdish neighbours, up to 300,000 people have been displaced.
Turkey says it wants to establish a 300-mile “safe zone” across its border. The goal is not only to neutralise Kurdish fighters, but to repatriate some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees Turkey currently plays host to.
Houses cleared of Kurdish families are being used to resettle Syrians, a move that has been criticised as an attempt to ethnically alter the region. Many Syrians, meanwhile, fear it is unsafe for them to return to their country.
3. The diaspora
Besides the 6.3 million Syrians internally displaced, 6 million have scattered across the globe. But borders are tightening, and it is increasingly difficult to find refuge.
On 1 March 2020, Turkey reopened its border with Greece. This reverted a 2016 deal in which Turkey had agreed to contain the flow of refugees in exchange for EU support, which Turkey feels did not materialise. This move has resulted in violent clashes between Greek border forces and crossing migrants. Possibly contravening international law, Greece has stopped processing asylum claims.
With no visible end to Assad’s reign, Syria remains a perilous place for those unable to leave, and an impossible destination for those who have fled. Syrians report Assad's rule of terror has intensified since the revolution. As it stands, for millions of asylum-seekers, there is no country in which they can legally and safely exist.
