Economic confidence has been on a steady, if far from spectacular, upwards trajectory since the start of the year. Of that there can be little doubt.
Reflecting that, the FTSE 100 is sniffing around its all-time peak, and sterling has been one of the world’s strongest performing major currencies over the summer.
So in the light of all that, why does deal-making remain so comparatively moribund?
Official government figures today show M&A activity was well down in the second quarter, with a declining trend through the three-month period.
There were just 385 domestic and crossborder corporate deals involving a change of control, down 17% from the 463 in the first quarter.
The trend within the quarter is also pretty clear cut. There were 148 deals during April, falling slightly to 144 in May, then declining sharply to 93 in June.
The IPO record is not much better. Despite a small flurry of London floats earlier this year the pipeline does not appear obviously fuller than it did in 2023.
The long-anticipated rush might yet come, but it feels like Waiting for Godot as things stand in early September.
So why has busier corporate finance activity not followed the “palpable” improvement — as Peel Hunt put it yesterday — in investor sentiment towards the UK?
Today’s figures cover the run-up to the election when political uncertainty (though there could not have been much of that given the polls) might have held back boardroom decision-making.
Well maybe. And perhaps the painfully slow pace of interest rate cuts has kept some bigger takeover ambitions on hold. Thattoo is possible.
But it is hard to escape the impression that there is still a long way to go before the improved sentiment around the UK and its now-growing economy translates into a new wave of exciting deal-making. The fee-hungry City rainmakers will just have to carry on being patient for now.
