The 67th annual Daytona 500 is on the near horizon. So, why not start prognosticating about who will win The Great American Race?
While no one can see into the future, history is perhaps the most reliable predictor of success in the NASCAR Cup Series’ biggest event.
If Daytona 500s past are the basis upon which we should pick a winner of the 2025 Daytona 500, then the choice is crystal clear.
Denny Hamlin Is NASCAR’s Resident Daytona 500 King
Of the drivers who competed on a full-time basis in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season, only seven have won the Daytona 500. They are reigning Cup Series champion Joey Logano, 2024 Daytona 500 winner William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Austin Cindric, Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Austin Dillon.
Of the seven, just one has captured the coveted Harley J. Earl Daytona 500 winner’s trophy more than once.
That driver, veteran Hamlin, has actually done it three times — in 2016, 2019 and 2020.
Meanwhile, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver finished second at the Daytona 500 in 2014, third in 2018, fourth in 2012 and 2015, and fifth in 2021.
Hamlin hasn’t found anywhere near the result he wanted in his last three Daytona 500 starts, coming home no better than 17th in his No. 11 Toyota. But compared to every other active full-time driver’s Daytona 500 resume, Hamlin’s stands tall. In fact, it’s in a league all its own.
Hamlin’s Three Daytona 500 Wins Have Been No Fluke
So, just what is it exactly that makes Hamlin so good in the high-stakes season opener at high-speed 2.5-mile Daytona International Speedway?
Let’s let the three-time Daytona 500 winner explain in his own words.
“I just feel like I’m a student to the game,” Hamlin said in 2020 after prevailing in the Daytona 500 most recently. “I never stop learning and trying to figure out where I need to put myself at the right time.
“It doesn’t always work. We’ve defied odds here in the last eight years or so in the Daytona 500, but I just trust my instincts, and so far, they’ve been good for me.”
While all of Hamlin’s Daytona 500 victories have been nail biters — which is the nature of the big-pack, close-quarters racing at Daytona and sister track Talladega Superspeedway — his breakthrough win in the 500 was quite literally a game of inches.
Hamlin nipped then-future Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr. at the checkered flag by one-hundredth of a second — basically a nose — while going from fourth to first on the final lap.
“I didn’t know we had won,” Hamlin said of his immediate reaction after crossing the finish line. “I knew it was close. I saw the pylon change and blink at the last second for the 11 car. I heard on the (in-car) radio people were all crazy, excited. I assumed we won when that happened. If not, I was going to be pissed.”
In 2016, @dennyhamlin captured the first of his three #DAYTONA500 victories by that much 🤏 over @MartinTruex_Jr! pic.twitter.com/9bOiKZNhBk
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 10, 2021
Though by a slightly wider margin than 2016, Hamlin’s 2020 Daytona 500 victory also came in a photo finish. You can watch it below. (Thankfully, Ryan Newman, who crashed spectacularly on the final lap, was not seriously injured.)
.@dennyhamlin joined rare air with his third #DAYTONA500 championship on Monday. pic.twitter.com/L2bbKm4Sm4
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 20, 2020
Hamlin Has A Chance To Further Separate Himself From His Peers In The Daytona 500
If Hamlin can leave the 2025 Daytona 500 with his fourth win in the prestigious season kickoff at The World Center of Racing, he would tie Cale Yarborough for second-most Daytona 500 victories. Hamlin would break his current four-way tie with Jeff Gordon, Dale Jarrett and the late Bobby Allison for third-most Daytona 500 victories at three apiece.
Only the NASCAR Cup Series’ all-time wins leader, Richard Petty, has more than four. Petty prevailed in The Great American Race a record seven times.
Hamlin, though, is king of the hill among his peers in the Daytona 500.
Another dose of Daytona 500 glory could soon be his.
