Perhaps we should have learnt by now. Fool me once and all that. As the 2024 Autumn Nations Series begins to wrap up, the southern hemisphere have once again shown their dominance over the north.
Despite talk heading into the autumn that an Australia team in transition were there for the taking and that Scott Robertson hadn’t yet properly made his mark on a beatable New Zealand side, those two nations and reigning double-world champions South Africa have racked up an imperious 8-2 combined record over Six Nations foes with just the Wallabies’ clash with Ireland in Dublin on Saturday to come.
Including Argentina in the equation would narrow the record slightly to 9-4, although the Pumas pushed Ireland unexpectedly close at the Aviva Stadium – and that still doesn’t factor in Fiji’s historic first-ever Cardiff victory over Wales. Whatever way you slice it, the south has ruled, although France can largely avoid blame after being the only northerners to consistently punch their weight in an autumn that has included the narrowest of 30-29 wins over the All Blacks and a more comfortable victory against Argentina.
It’s become the theme of recent cross-hemisphere international windows – northern hemisphere optimism being promptly punctured. Hopes were high in the summer on southern soil, only for the All Blacks to sweep England, the Wallabies to do likewise to hapless Wales and Ireland needing an improbable, last-gasp Ciaran Frawley drop goal from downtown Durban to snatch a series draw against the Springboks.
Before that, the 2023 Rugby World Cup was the tournament where England’s class of 2003 would finally be joined in the pantheon of champions by another of the Six Nations cohort – most likely either all-conquering world No 1 Ireland or swashbuckling hosts France. Instead, both crashed out on a quarter-final weekend for the ages, leaving an overmatched England as the north’s lone semi-final representatives before the Springboks dispatched the All Blacks in the final to lift the Webb Ellis Cup for a second straight time.
Former Wales and Lions captain Sam Warburton – who is working as a TNT Sports pundit throughout the Autumn Nations Series – believes the northern hemisphere sides can have no complaints and pinpoints one key reason as to why they still trail their southern counterparts.
“There’s no excuse like ‘they’ve come off a Rugby Championship, so they’ve had time together’ – that happens every year,” explains Warburton. “In the summer, when we play down there, we always say, ‘Oh we’re tired, it’s the end of season’. We don’t say, ‘we’ve just had two months together in the Six Nations a short time before’.
“You can’t have it both ways. The southern hemisphere are just in a better place than us right now. The one big difference I have seen is there’s more ‘X factor’ down south at the minute from an individual perspective.
“You’ve got players like Dupont in France obviously and guys like Marcus Smith, [Chandler] Cunningham-South, [Immanuel] Feyi-Waboso, I think they are showing some world-class ability but there’s more players down south playing world-class rugby than there is up north at the minute.
“They just have that individual X-factor ability to spin a game on its head, which I love seeing as a fan and a pundit. I want to see box-office players producing box-office moments. All international teams are pretty well drilled but at that level what often makes the difference is the ones who have got that handful of players who can operate at a different level. The southern hemisphere have a few more players of that ilk at the minute.”
Both the eye test and the stats from the Autumn Nations Series back up Warburton’s assertion. For example, in statistics according to Opta, Australia No 15 Tom Wright has beaten more defenders in men’s Test rugby in 2024 than any other Tier 1 full-back. In fact, his 34 defenders beaten is a mammoth 13 greater than second-placed Cam Winnett of Wales.
Wright also ranks No 1 for line breaks (7), metres gained (329) and average gain per carry (13.2m) this autumn. Only four Tier 1 players have gained more than the 243 metres he did against Wales in a single match since Opta began recording that data in 2010.
At the risk of picking on Wales, the paltry 82 metres they gained on 62 carries against the Springboks was the fewest any men’s Tier 1 nation has registered in a Test match since Opta began collecting this data, while Australia’s 13 line breaks were the most any team has made against England since records began. The south are simply dominating.
Wallabies prop Angus Bell was another individual superstar to shine, with his nine defenders beaten against Steve Borthwick’s England the most by any Tier 1 prop in a Test match since at least 2010.
From Wallace Sititi to Cheslin Kolbe to Josua Tuisova, the southern hemisphere currently boasts endless individual superstars and Warburton isn’t convinced the north can close the gap.
“It’s a good question,” says Warburton, as he ponders why the northern hemisphere nations aren’t creating as many players with that X factor.
“In Wales for example, academies get challenged a lot about why aren’t they bringing through players. But the best players I’ve played with, they would come through and be world-class players whether there’s an academy system in place for them or not because they had the skillset, the athletic ability and importantly, the mindset to get to the very top. It didn’t matter where they were in the country, they would have made it.
“Thinking about generational players, to me it seems like it’s more of a coincidence when you get those guys coming through. You can’t manufacture someone who carries like Angus Bell – you’ve either got that ability or you haven’t. If you’re 6ft 4in, 20st, you’re mobile and you play prop, you’re in the genetic freak category. You can’t manufacture that.
“When you look at [Joseph-Aukuso] Suaalii, it’s the same thing. You look at Wallace Sititi for New Zealand, same thing. You can’t manufacture those guys – they’re generational players.
“If you haven’t got those players in your system then the processes have got to be absolutely spot on from a coaching perspective. That’s where the south have the edge right now – they’ve got a few more game-breakers than we have up north.”
The south has definitively laid down a marker and with three years until the next World Cup, it’s now up to the north to respond.
Every match of the 2024 Autumn Nations Series is exclusively live on TNT Sports and Discovery+. The Autumn Nations Rugby Show airs every Thursday at 10pm on Quest
