“VICTORY for John Swinney”. That was how the Daily Record’s political editor characterised the news that the LibDems would be backing his first Budget at the head of the Scottish Government. But is it any such thing?
The SNP leader looks to have caved to a headline-grabbing demand from the LibDems in order to secure their support for the Budget – not one “penny” of spending on independence.
Indeed, the SNP’s 2025/26 draft Budget does not mention Scottish independence even once – let alone in its spending plans.
Contrast that against the 2024/25 Budget from 12 months ago. That not only included funding to “provide the people of Scotland with further information on the opportunities of an independent Scotland within the EU in the Building a New Scotland series”, Finance Secretary Shona Robison made clear the SNP’s constitutional aims in no uncertain terms.
“Devolution can serve as a shield that only partially helps to mitigate against Westminster austerity,” she wrote in her Budget foreword. “It is only with independence that Scotland can chart its own course to grow a wellbeing economy to help its people in the way that serves them best.”
Robison added: “We have always said that to truly transform our economy, society, and public services, and to reap the benefits of Scotland’s resources for current and future generations, we need the full powers of independence and to retake our place in the European Union.”
Instead, for 2025, Robison’s foreword states an aim of “a Budget that, while it may not meet all that we would want, can command broad support to help improve the lives of the people of Scotland”.
But why would the SNP need to settle for compromise in the Budget? Especially compromise that removes all spending – and even mention – of their party’s founding goal?
The answer is that they simply did not need to.
Anas Sarwar’s capitulation earlier in January actually was a victory for Swinney – and sparked ire from the Tories and Greens, who accused Labour of having “thrown in the towel without even trying to secure any improvements”.
With Labour’s MSPs set to abstain, the SNP were free to pass their Budget. They didn’t need the support of the Greens or the LibDems.
On Tuesday, they won that support anyway – but it came despite both parties having won concessions and drawn opposing red lines.
The LibDems, as mentioned, said they would never back a Budget with any spending on independence. The Greens, in response, said they would not back a Budget without it.
Now, it seems the LibDems have come out on top. Group leader Alex Cole-Hamilton certainly thinks so, telling media "it’s the first time in this parliament that nothing will be spent on independence".
A group of four MSPs – not even big enough to qualify as an official party under Holyrood rules – have seemingly stopped the Scottish National Party-run government from even talking about independence. And they’ve done it despite the Greens and Alba providing a clear pro-independence majority in the parliament.
Is that what a “victory for John Swinney” looks like?
