The French prime minister, Michel Barnier, resigned on Thursday morning, after far-right and leftist lawmakers joined forces to topple his government only three months after it took office.
Barnier and his government will stay on in a caretaker capacity, taking care of day-to-day business until the appointment of a new government, the Élysée said in a statement on Thursday.
The end of Barnier’s government – the first to fall from a no-confidence vote in France in more than 60 years – has plunged the country into political crisis and turned Barnier, a veteran politician who was formerly the European Union’s Brexit negotiator, into the shortest serving prime minister in modern French history.
The country’s president, Emmanuel Macron, is expected to address the nation on Thursday evening. Here’s a brief guide to what happened – and what may come next.
Why did the French government fall?
The no-confidence motion, brought by leftist lawmakers in the national assembly, came amid a standoff over a draft austerity budget that had sought to save €60bn through spending cuts and tax rises in hopes of reducing the gaping deficit.
Earlier this week, Barnier opted to use a constitutional measure known as article 49.3 to pass a social security financial bill. The constitutional measure allows a government to pass legislation without parliament’s approval but also gives MPs the chance to challenge that decision by presenting a no-confidence motion.
With the crucial support of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, a majority of 331 MPs in the 577-member chamber voted to oust the government.
Following the vote, Le Pen told TF1 television that “we had a choice to make, and our choice is to protect the French” from a “toxic” budget.
It was the country’s first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.
What led to this?
The political turmoil stems from Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament in June and hold early elections after his centrist forces suffered a humiliating defeat in the European parliament elections.
While the NFP, a coalition of left-leaning parties ranging from the mainstream Socialist party (PS) to the radical-left Unbowed France (LFI) headed by the political firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, won the largest number of seats, the results divided parliament into three roughly equal blocs – left, centre and right/far right – none of which had a majority.
As the largest parliamentary force, the leftwing NFP said it should name the new head of government. Macron rejected this, instead appointing Barnier and giving rise to tenuous alliance of centrist and centre-right MPs.
By echoing the far-right’s rhetoric on hot-button issues such as crime, security and immigration, and compromising on measures such as easing the cost of living, Barnier had hoped to curry the support of the far right for as long as possible.
In the wake of Wednesday’s no-confidence vote, Macron has faced calls to resign. As his mandate runs until 2027 he cannot be pushed out, but the months-long political turmoil has left him a diminished figure. “His failure” was leftwing daily Liberation’s front-page headline on Wednesday, with a picture of Macron.
What does this mean for France?
The government’s fall has plunged France into a period of deep political uncertainty. The prospect that the country will end the year without a stable government or a 2025 budget is already unnerving investors. Earlier this week, France’s borrowing costs briefly exceeded those of Greece, generally considered far more risky.
There is no fear of a US-style shutdown since France’s constitution allows for a government – possibly even a caretaker government – to pass an emergency law that could prolong the previous year’s budget so that public sector workers, for example, continue to be paid.
The upheaval is also likely to further weaken a European Union that is already reeling from the implosion of Germany’s coalition government and scrambling to present a united front before Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The government’s fall comes as France is bracing for public-sector strikes that could lead to schools, air and rail traffic being shut down. On Thursday, unions called for civil servants, including teachers and air-traffic controllers, to strike over separate cost-cutting measures.
All of this comes as the country is gearing up to host dignitaries from around the world for the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral on Saturday after the devastating fire in 2019. Those expected to attend the opening include Trump, in his first foreign trip since he was re-elected.
What happens next?
Macron now has the unenviable task of picking a viable successor capable of navigating the polarised currents of the country’s fragmented parliament, which will remain unchanged as no new legislative elections can be held until at least July.
Macron could also decide to appoint a technocratic government to oversee France’s administration for a further six months. He could also resign, triggering new presidential elections, but for the time being that is seen as unlikely.
As the head of the caretaker government, Barnier will handle day-to-day business, including proposing emergency legislation that would roll over spending limits and tax provisions from 2024.
That would avert a government shutdown, but the €60bn (£50bn) of savings through spending cuts and tax rises planned by the Barnier government - and welcomed by the EU and investors – would no longer happen.
Another option would be for Macron to give in to the budget demands of the RN and name a prime minister backed by the far-right party. But that would imply abandoning efforts to cut France’s budget deficit.
Barnier’s caretaker government could also invoke constitutional powers to pass the 2025 budget by executive order if MPs have not approved it by 20 December, but legal experts say this is uncertain territory and would be open to challenge.
Instead, Macron is expected to appoint the new prime minister swiftly, several sources told AFP. A source close to Macron said the president had “no choice” but to do so within 24 hours. Reuters reported that Macron was aiming to name a prime minister before Saturday’s unveiling of Notre Dame .
Candidates for the post are few, but the loyalist defence minister Sebastien Lecornu and Macron’s centrist ally Francois Bayrou are possible contenders.
On the left, Macron could turn to the former Socialist PM and interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve, whose name was floated as a potential prime minister prior to Barnier’s appointment. But the risk remains that MPs will topple one pick after another.
