Telecom stocks appeal to some investors as defensive plays amid the current market volatility. But Comcast stock has struggled despite increased dividends and share repurchases.
Will investor sentiment change when Comcast reports first-quarter earnings on April 24? Expectations on Wall Street for Comcast's core broadband business are low, with analysts expecting high-speed internet service subscribers to fall again.
"As has been the case for at least three years, it all comes down to broadband net additions," said Craig Moffett, co-founder and senior analyst at MoffettNathanson. "The good news for Comcast investors is that expectations for the quarter have been set very low. It's going to be another messy quarter of broadband subscriber losses. But the market already knows that."
He added: "Interestingly, Charter Communication's results may actually be more important for Comcast than Comcast's own. Charter is viewed as further along in the broadband cycle, and if there is any sign that broadband tends are stabilizing at Charter than Comcast investors will feel much more confident."
Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich recently raised her estimate for Q1 subscriber losses to 180,000 from 155,000.
"The broadband environment remains fiercely competitive," she said in a report. "Competition from fiber operators continues to build, fixed wireless access (FWA) providers are still capturing outsized share and mobile substitution persists."
Ehrlich added: "Comcast is making several changes to address the challenging backdrop, including a heavier focus on convergence/leaning into mobile. However, these adjustments will likely take time, and we do not believe there will be a noticeable benefit in first half 2025 as Comcast's new pricing and packaging will likely not hit the market until late Q2."
Comcast Stock: Q1 Estimates
In the March quarter, analysts estimate that earnings will fall 5% to 99 cents a share while revenue declines 1% to $29.8 billion.
Comcast stock has shed 2.4% this year, ending the regular session Friday at 36.62. That's better than the Nasdaq composite's 10% retreat. But Comcast is down from a 52-week high of 45.31 on Oct. 31. Shares peaked at 61 in 2021.
Meanwhile, AT&T, T-Mobile US and Verizon Communications are outperforming Comcast this year.
AT&T stock has gained nearly 24% in 2025. That's on top of a 36% gain last year.
T-Mobile stock has advanced 20% this year, while Verizon stock is up 12%.
Both T-Mobile and Verizon have ramped up wireless broadband services. AT&T and Verizon are focused on "convergence" — selling landline broadband and wireless services in product bundles.
It's unclear when other parts of Comcast will provide a boost.
A slowdown in TV ad spending continues to impact NBCUniversal. NBCU last week extended its media rights to the Olympic games through 2036 in a deal valued at $3 billion.
Comcast Stock: Theme Park Opening
Revenue growth at the theme parks business could improve with the opening of Epic Universe later this year.
Some analysts expect strong movie releases over the next two years.
Bullish analysts on Comcast stock expect broadband subscriber trends to eventually recover, with operating losses from the Peacock video streaming service trending lower.
Bearish analysts say that despite subscriber growth, Comcast's wireless services business doesn't make much money.
Comcast announced plans in November to spin off a group of cable networks in 2025, led by USA Networks, CNBC, and MSNBC, into an unnamed company. Bravo was excluded.
Aside from the broadband business, shareholder returns remain key. UBS analyst John Hodulik projects $8 billion in share buybacks in 2025.
Follow Reinhardt Krause on X, formerly Twitter, @reinhardtk_tech for updates on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.
