It was only a matter of when, not if the College Football Playoff would be expanded. Well, that time is finally here.
The CFP Board of Managers unanimously voted Friday in favor of a 12-team playoff, according to multiple reports. The new model is expected to start with the 2026 season, though some details need to be ironed out to see if it could begin sooner.
If you’re a bettor, this simultaneously expands your options when it comes to voting on CFP futures while also eliminating a couple other options…like, say, Alabama or Ohio State. The market will instead shift from the top-four teams to the teams likely to fall in that six to 16 range.
The 12-team model is expected to start in 2026, after the current contract, according to a source. There's still a chance that it could go earlier, but those details are complicated and would take some time to work out. https://t.co/sRWlmiDvbe
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) September 2, 2022
If you’re wondering how an expanded playoff field hurts the betting market for teams almost guaranteed to make the playoff, let me explain.
Alabama and Ohio State are perennial national title contenders, but a four-team field always left open the possibility they could miss the playoff with a single loss (Ohio State missed the playoffs last season at 11-2). So while the odds of these schools to make the CFP aren’t particularly valuable in the current format — both are -250 this year — there’s at least a little something there for people who want to bet large amounts.
That value will be essentially eliminated with a 12-team field. Those -250 odds will be more like -500 or longer.
The 12-team CFP format will be the one that was initially proposed by the four-person working group. Six highest-ranked conference champions, six at-larges.
Source tells @TheAthletic that there are a lot of details left to work out to see if it can be implemented before 2026.
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) September 2, 2022
According to The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach, the approved format will send the six highest-ranked conference champions to the playoff along with six at-large picks. That makes conference odds and national title odds the more appealing markets for Alabama and Ohio State bettors. Unless, of course, you think they’re going to miss a 12-team playoff field. But good luck with that.
Ohio State hasn’t finished a season ranked lower than No. 6 since 2013. Alabama has finished every since Nick Saban’s second year in 2008 as a top-10 team.
Instead, CFP bettors will want to focus on teams like Clemson, Texas A&M, Michigan, USC — schools that might occasionally compete for conference titles but will also be fringe at-large bids some years. Those type of schools are where the current value on the top four will shift.
