President Gavin Newsom?
Watch California's newly reelected Democratic governor closely in 2023. He has been making unmistakable moves that signal his interest. He’s taken on the conservative governors of Florida and Texas and won accolades from Democratic Party insiders for his aggressive, unapologetic stands on issues like gun violence and abortion rights. He’s suggested that President Joe Biden, who turns 80 this month, is not suited for the brutal political climate.
The nonpartisan book on Newsom, though, is split.
“Ballot box poison,” said Tobe Berkovitz, associate professor of advertising emeritus at Boston University. “He’s everything people in flyover America (the states between the coasts) think is wrong.”
No, said Ben Highton, professor of political science at University of California, Davis. “I don’t think on policy grounds he is sufficiently liberal that he would be out of contention for the Democratic nomination and even in the general election,” he said.
Newsom said he has “subzero” interest in the presidency, and insisted last month that he will serve his full term, which ends in January 2027. But such pledges have a long and spotty history.
To run or not to run? Here are some of the reasons for each.
Why Newsom doesn’t run
— Joe Biden. He runs for a second term. Doubts about his political strength and fitness persist. But challenging incumbents from your own party is a non-starter (see Ted Kennedy 1980 or Pat Buchanan 1992). Newsom leaves office in January 2027 and instantly loses his best forum for getting attention. And if Biden’s approval numbers jump in that second term — as Reagan’s did — Vice President Kamala Harris is well-positioned as the front-runner for a “third” term.
— Kamala Harris. If Biden doesn’t run, Harris would pull strong support from the Black community, and most likely women. While her 2020 White House bid went nowhere, she has won three statewide races in the nation’s biggest, most diverse state.
— California. Newsom embodies all the clichés about California: movie-star handsome, winery owner, married to the “first partner,” and so on. How does West Coast Cool play in Iowa or some of the other more down-to-earth states that he would need to win?
— Who are his voters? Chances are the left will get behind a successor to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., so far looks like the favorite, not Newsom. Younger voters are talking up Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. Harris will probably inherit Biden’s base, and she’d win backing from much of the Black community. So who are the passionate Newsom supporters?
— His record. Crime is up. The economy is teetering. California has almost a third of the nation’s homeless population and is regarded as the most hospitable place for undocumented immigrants. Newsom is presiding over a state that looks to many Americans like an out-of-control mess.
— The GOP/Fox attack machine. The brighter the national spotlight, the more Republicans and their media affiliates are likely to pounce. Helping lead the charge could very well be Newsom’s ex-wife, Kimberly Guilfoyle, who’s now engaged to Donald Trump, Jr. She previewed what could be coming at the 2020 Republican convention, warning Democrats in California had created “a land of discarded heroin needles in parks, riots in streets and blackouts in homes.”
— His day job. Newsom would be trying to govern a state of 39 million people and the world’s fourth-biggest economy. He’d be a lame duck, the target of ambitious Republicans and, for that matter, Democrats eyeing his job in 2026. Massachusetts Gov. Mike Dukakis tried to run his state while running for president in 1988. It didn’t end well.
— The French Laundry. This is an attack ad waiting to be done. After discouraging Californians from attending big Thanksgiving dinners and traveling, Newsom attended a dinner in late 2020 at the tony French Laundry restaurant in Yountville. He was skewered by politicians, “Saturday Night Live” and beyond.
Why Newsom runs
— Joe Biden. He’d be 86 at the end of a second term. His approval rating has been stuck in the low 40s. Newsom has already been not-so-subtly making the case for him to retire, calling him “hard wired for a different world.”
— Kamala Harris. Her presidential run in 2020 was a dismal failure, and FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls in mid-October found her approval rating at 38%. Expectations would be high for her White House bid. Not so for Newsom, so if she flops in early primaries, he would be ready.
— California. No other presidential candidate can match his experience as chief executive of the world’s fourth-largest economy and 12% of the country’s population. He would also enjoy a big head start in the race for the Democratic nomination. In 2020, California had 494 delegates to the party’s convention, with 2,375 needed to win.
— His record. Cutting-edge policies to curb climate change. Help for undocumented immigrants. Aggressive defense of abortion rights. It’s the platform Democrats have pushed for years, and Newsom has a resume that shows he’s done what he can to implement it. As mayor of San Francisco in 2004, he was lauded by party activists for his early support of gay marriage, a risky political move for someone with state and national ambitions. Democrats haven’t forgotten.
— Money. He can raise buckets of it, maybe more than almost any other prospective post-Biden contender. Newsom had about $23.7 million on hand for his 2022 governor’s race as of late September.
— Insiders. When he ran ads taunting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and then sponsored billboards in conservative states protesting their anti-abortion policies, Newsom won acclaim from party officials eager to see someone take off the gloves.
— Windows close. If Harris or some other Democrat wins the presidency in 2024, that’s potentially eight long years on the sidelines as a former governor, watching his successor in Sacramento build a national following. Not to mention other newcomers who will be part of the party’s conversation. Tim Ryan, anybody?
Then again, Newsom is only 55 now. He could resurface in 2032 or 2036. He won’t turn 80 until 2048.
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