Regeneron stock joined the 1,000-club this month as enthusiasm grows for its blockbuster drug, Dupixent, in COPD treatment.
Though the Food and Drug Administration just delayed the potential approval to Sept. 27, RBC Capital Markets analyst Brian Abrahams said sales of Dupixent in COPD, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, are "likely to be higher than even our bullish expectations, and well above what the Street may be anticipating."
His comments are based on a survey of 31 pulmonologists who treat patients with the damaging and progressive lung disease. Those surveyed say they plan to use the drug from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Sanofi in nearly 20% of their COPD patients within two years of the launch.
That would translate to $20 billion in U.S. sales just in 2026.
That's "far above our prior $1.4 billion estimate and we believe what realistic usage would be," he said in a report. "But we believe it does illustrate the very high appetite among clinicians to prescribe this broadly."
In premarket trades, Regeneron stock surged more than 8%. But shares closed up just 1.7% at 1,027.67. Regeneron stock topped 1,000 for the first time intraday on June 3 after breaking out of a cup-with-handle base and a buy point at 997.87, MarketSurge shows.
Regeneron Stock: Bullish Dupixent Expectations
Even without adding COPD treatment, Dupixent is one of the companies' biggest moneymakers. Sanofi, which records sales of Dupixent, reported $11.6 billion in sales last year. This year, sales are expected to jump almost 21% to north of $14 billion, according to FactSet.
Dupixent's role in COPD treatment could play a small part in that.
RBC's Abrahams sees peak sales of $4 billion in the U.S. and $6.5 billion worldwide for the drug in COPD patients.
Dupixent works to tamp down type 2 inflammation, an allergic response tied to conditions like asthma, eczema and some patients with COPD. These patients have high levels of eosinophils, a type of white blood cell that supports the immune system.
Dupixent's potential dominance in COPD treatment is due to two things. There's likely a higher-than-expected number of patients with high eosinophils who could qualify for Dupixent. And, physicians are likely to have relaxed views on how high eosinophils must be for patients to try Dupixent, Abrahams said.
Importantly, relatively few physicians are already treating COPD patients with Dupixent, "suggesting the market is relatively open," he said.
Abrahams rates Regeneron stock an outperform and raised his price target to 1,229 from 1,200.
Rivals Are Coming
Dupixent is likely to be the first biologic treatment for COPD to hit the market. But Amgen and AstraZeneca are following closely with their drug, Tezspire.
"Tezspire is likely to be a well-received competitor, potentially taking share long term, though we believe ultimately helping growth the COPD biologics market," Abrahams said.
Most pulmonologists surveyed expected a 50/50 market split between Dupixent and Tezspire in COPD treatment. Dupixent's first-mover advantage could be offset by Tezspire's less frequent dosing regimen. Tezspire is still several years away from the COPD market.
"We believe the market will be more than large enough for both drugs to generate meaningful revenue," Abrahams said.
Regeneron stock is has an improved Relative Strength Rating of 84, up from 79 just a month ago, according to IBD Digital. This means shares rank among the top 16% of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_AGatlin.
