Parliament remains divided ahead of a vote on whether to approve assisted dying on Friday, in what could be one of the most significant laws in a century.
The divisive issue is being debated in the Commons on Friday for the first time in almost a decade – having been voted down by MPs in 2015.
Kim Leadbeater, the MP behind the Bill, has said Parliament has the opportunity to “correct injustice and reduce human suffering” when it debates assisted dying – but opposition campaigners have warned of “inevitable abuse, pressure, coercion and mistakes”.
Five hours have been set aside for MPs to air their views on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill, and a vote must be called before 2.30pm otherwise the Bill is highly unlikely to make any further progress through Parliament.
While Ms Leadbeater has said she is hopeful this “major social reform” will pass this first stage in becoming law, how MPs vote remains hugely unpredictable.
MPs will be taking part in a free vote according to their conscience rather than along party lines, leading to the cabinet being split on the decision and unlikely alliances appearing.
The Financial Times has labelled the vote too close to call, pointing out that a tracker of MPs who had publicly revealed their position by Thursday night showed 265 in favour and 217 against, leaving more than 140 yet to declare their intentions.
As of Thursday evening, a tally by the PA news agency indicated that about 100 MPs so far have signalled their intention to support the Bill, with about 80 saying they will oppose it.
Similarly, Sky News predicts that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against it, and 300 are either undecided or haven't revealed their decision.
The broadcaster highlights that there are 20 MPs who won’t vote - the SNP because the changes won't apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don't sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of the 650 MPs in the Commons, most have yet to say publicly how they will vote, including Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who supported a change in the law in 2015.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is among those who have said they remain undecided as they study the Bill’s contents.
The Cabinet is split on the issue, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood intending to vote no, while Energy Secretary and former Labour leader Ed Miliband is supporting the Bill alongside Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy.
Former prime minister Rishi Sunak has not said which way he will vote, while Lord Cameron, who would have a vote if the Bill progressed to the Lords, is the only living former PM to publicly back the legislation.
Meanwhile, public support appears to be behind the bill, with the latest YouGov poll showing 73% of the public are in favour of a change to the law.
Encouraging or assisting suicide is against the law in England and Wales, with a maximum jail sentence of 14 years.
If the Bill passes on Friday, it will go to committee stage where MPs can table amendments, before facing further scrutiny and votes in both the House of Commons and the House of Lords, meaning any change in the law would not be agreed until next year at the earliest.
Ms Leadbeater has said it would likely be a further two years from then for an assisted dying service to be in place.
But a small group of MPs have already made a bid to halt the Bill’s progress, claiming the fact it is a private member’s Bill, rather than a Government Bill, means the process does not “allow for sufficient debate on and scrutiny” of a matter of such importance.
Whether this bid is successful depends on the Commons Speaker choosing it for debate and a majority of MPs supporting it.
Ahead of the debate, Ms Leadbeater said: “People will be looking in on Parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.
“I hope Parliament will show itself at its best and most compassionate and that MPs will show themselves, as they have in the past when major social reforms have come before them, ready to correct injustice and reduce human suffering.”
High-profile supporters of change include Dame Esther Rantzen and Dame Prue Leith.
While those for a new law have said it will give choice to dying people in specific, limited circumstances, opposition campaigners have warned of the risk of people feeling coerced into taking their lives.
Baroness Tanni Grey-Thompson and actress and disability campaigner Liz Carr are among the well-known faces to have spoken out against the Bill.
Ms Carr said: “It’s no exaggeration to say that many disabled people are terrified of this Bill being voted in. Our recent past showed us how ill, older and disabled people’s lives are viewed as less valuable and more disposable.
“Set against this backdrop of inequality, bias and disadvantage, we do not believe any safeguards could protect us from the inevitable abuse, pressure, coercion and mistakes made under the Leadbeater Bill.”
The equality regulator has said that Parliament should be given more information and assurance that the Bill is compatible with human rights.
The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC), which said it is neutral on assisted dying, also said Parliament will need “adequate time, expertise and the supporting materials required to effectively scrutinise” the Bill.
EHRC chairwoman Baroness Kishwer Falkner said it is “essential” that any assisted dying law “upholds everyone’s rights”.
