A Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet
(Picture: AFP/Getty Images)Nato powers, Britain in particular, have been asked to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine – which presents them with an almost impossible dilemma. There have been guarantees of freedom of air space under various arrangements following the end of the Cold War in 1989. In particular there are three agreements of 1994, including the Budapest Memorandum by which Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in return for safety guarantees, which imply a protected free air space.
As Boris Johnson replied to an impassioned request from a woman who had just travelled to Poland from Kyiv, the imposition of a no-fly regime would involve “shooting down planes” and bring Nato into conflict with Russia. The war would spread across Europe.
The battle for air dominance is complex, and is another sign that Russia is not having things entirely their own way. They marshaled half their effective air force just before the launch of their invasion on February 22nd. Yet they have not used their air force to any extent.
The Ukrainian forces have some 124 combat planes, including very capable MiG-29 and SU-24 combat planes. But they cannot hope to match the Russian air forces in the area.
The two sides are better matched in air defence missile systems, and this is why Russia is preferring to use cruise missiles and not manned fighter-bombers. Ukraine has 250 S-300 long range anti-air missiles, which can fire multiple warheads.
Both sides have used medium-range BUK missiles. These are infamous for the firing of a BUK in the Russian breakaway Donbas enclave on July 17th 2014. It shot down the Malaysian airliner MH17 killing all 298 on board. The Bellingcat investigative journalistic cooperative unmasked the culprits – the Russian militias had borrowed the BUK battery from the Russian Army’s 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, stationed nearby.
The Russian military are wary of the Ukrainian air-defence capability – particularly in their ability to down Russian helicopters. Nato allies have provided Stinger shoulder-carried anti-aircraft missiles. They are highly effective man portable weapons, some of the first used in the Falklands conflict of 40 years ago.
The Ukrainians are evidently husbanding their stocks of Stingers. They have been noticeably adept at ambush tactics – against ground and helicopter forces. This is the tactic of ‘shoot and scoot’ : fire at convoys with shoulder launched anti-tank weapons, like the LAWs provided by Britain, and the Stingers against helicopters – and then get out of the area, scram, as fast as possible.
On Monday, Moscow’s defence ministry announced that Russian forces had ‘full air dominance’. This is far from the case. But in the air the balance of forces favours Moscow.
As the Russian armoured columns close on the cities of eastern Ukraine, the war is likely to develop into a campaign of guerrilla resistance, and ambush.
