The Senate elected in 2022 had a clear progressive majority. That is likely to continue in 2025, but there are a number of close races, with potential for minor parties to pick up more seats.
There were two unprecedented results in 2022. The left-leaning independent David Pocock defeated Liberal Zed Seselja for the second seat in the ACT after almost 50 years of the territory consistently electing one Labor and one Liberal senator. And Labor won three seats in Western Australia for the first time at a six-seat election, with one Greens senator also elected.
Thanks to those two results, Labor and the Greens between them held half the seats in the post-election Senate, with Pocock the most obvious option to give them a majority. They also had the option of working with the two Jacqui Lambie Network senators and, less plausibly, senators from One Nation or the United Australia party. Of course, the Labor government could also ignore the crossbench and instead work with the Coalition, as it has done on numerous occasions.
Since 2022, three centrist or progressive senators have left their parties to sit as independents: Tammy Tyrrell (formerly of the Lambie Network), Lidia Thorpe (Greens) and Fatima Payman (Labor). Forming a majority with the various crossbench senators can be complicated, but there is a clear progressive majority.
Since Senate elections are proportional within each state, it often requires a large swing to produce seat changes, especially between left and right.
Half of the 12 senators in each state are up for election, while the four territory senators must face the voters every three years.
In almost all cases the left, broadly defined, wins three seats in each state, and the right wins three. The rare occasions when one side wins one or more 4-2 splits can make a big difference in shifting the balance of power in the Senate – as in 2004 when the Coalition achieved an outright majority.
Usually two seats go to Labor, two go to the Coalition, with one more left-leaning seat and one more right-leaning seat. It is very rare that Labor wins a third seat, with the Greens winning a seat in every state at the last two elections. A third seat is more common for the Coalition, but they are under increasing threat from minor parties such as One Nation and the various Clive Palmer incarnations, and have also lost that third seat to Jacqui Lambie at the last three elections in Tasmania.
The likely pattern in 2025
At this election most states should elect two Labor senators, two from the Coalition and one from the Greens, leaving a sixth seat in play. That final seat is likely to be a contest between the Coalition, One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots and in some states, other parties such as the Jacqui Lambie Network and Legalise Cannabis.
The state senators up for election this year were last elected in 2019, which was a good year for the Coalition, particularly in Queensland, which elected four rightwing senators. Polls suggest Labor is doing better in Queensland now than in 2022, let alone 2019. So Labor should regain a second seat there, at the expense of one of the sitting non-LNP senators on the right – either the former LNP senator Gerard Rennick or One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts.
Another contest worth watching is in the ACT. Pocock is likely to have a new personal vote after three years in the Senate and is favourite to retain his seat in the face of a local Liberal party that has had a difficult campaign.
By the end of the previous parliament Labor needed the support of the Greens and three other senators to pass legislation without the support of the Coalition. If Pocock is re-elected and Labor regains its second Queensland seat, just two extra votes will be needed.
The equation is less encouraging for a possible Dutton government. The Coalition holds 30 seats in the current Senate. It’s likely that the right wing will fall a number of seats short of a majority (39), and a diverse group of crossbench senators would share the balance of power. This would include One Nation and Ralph Babet (still serving in the name of Palmer’s former party United Australia), but they would also need to work with less comfortable fits such as Tyrrell, Lambie and Pocock.
Here’s how the picture looks in each state and territory.
New South Wales
The 2019 and 2022 elections produced the same result: three Coalition, two Labor, one Greens.
The Labor and Greens seats should be solid, but One Nation came close to winning the third Coalition seat in 2022 and could be a threat here. Legalise Cannabis has also shown it can draw a significant vote from both left and right and could threaten a seat usually won by the right.
Victoria
The United Australia party won the third right-leaning seat in 2022, joining two Liberals, two Labor and one Greens.
There is certainly room for one of the rightwing minor parties, in particular Trumpet of Patriots or One Nation, to win that third seat on the right this time. Legalise Cannabis also has a high-profile candidate in the former state MP Fiona Patten.
Queensland
This is the strongest state for rightwing parties, producing a 4-2 split in 2019. Normality was restored in 2022, when the state split two LNP, two Labor and one each for the Greens and One Nation.
At this election, the former LNP senator Gerard Rennick is running for his new People First party against One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts. Labor is only defending one seat. It seems almost certain that one of those two will lose their seat, with Labor regaining a second seat.
Western Australia
Labor won three seats in Western Australia in 2022, along with two Liberals and one Green. It is unlikely they can repeat this feat, although Labor’s support in WA seems to be holding up better than expected. If Labor was to repeat that result, it would be a big boost to its Senate position. But it is more likely they will retain the two seats won in 2019, with the Liberals winning two and competing with rightwing minor parties for the third seat on the right.
South Australia
Once a maverick state in the Nick Xenophon era, SA elected the standard three Liberals, two Labor and one Green at the last two elections. That is likely to be repeated, although a minor rightwing party can’t be ruled out.
Tasmania
Jacqui Lambie will be defending her own seat in Tasmania. Labor should retain their two seats, while the Greens should retain their one. The Liberals should also retain their two seats, but will also be hoping to knock off Lambie and gain a third. One Nation’s Lee Hanson – daughter of the party’s founder – is also taking aim at Lambie’s seat.
Australian Capital Territory
David Pocock will be facing his first re-election contest. In many ways his seat more resembles a lower house teal seat than a Senate seat. His name recognition should help him solidify his position. It’s likely Pocock and Katy Gallagher will both retain their seats.
Northern Territory
There has never been anything surprising or noteworthy about Senate contests in the Northern Territory. The territory should continue to elect one Labor senator and one from the Country Liberal party. Sorry Territorians, you have two interesting House races, but the Senate is quite dull.
