Rishi Sunak has not given up on the next election but it appears many of his closest colleagues are now intensely focused on what may well be a race to replace him next year if he loses the election.
If the Conservatives are booted out of office after 14 years in power, the party is going to be split over which direction to take next, with ideological differences widening between the party’s various wings. The choice will be whether to retreat to its core vote comfort zone on the right – as it did in the wilderness years of the late 90s and early 2000s – or shift to a more centrist outlook similar to that of David Cameron.
Here are the main contenders showcasing their “wide-ranging” views at the party’s autumn conference.
Suella Braverman
Braverman’s leadership posturing began the week before the party conference, with her speech in the US claiming that uncontrolled immigration posed an “existential threat” to the west. She was first out of the starting blocks in terms of overshadowing Sunak’s conference, triggering a debate on whether the UK should push for reform of the UN convention on refugees and even potentially the European convention on human rights.
The controversy over the party’s position on the ECHR has since dominated the fringes, even though Braverman has not made any further interventions. The home secretary’s next appearance will be her speech on the stage on Tuesday afternoon, before she is due to attend a reception for the Common Sense Group that evening. The group is run by John Hayes, a rightwing Tory MP who, as Braverman’s mentor and one of her key allies, would probably be instrumental in any renewed leadership attempt.
Kemi Badenoch
The business secretary is seen as a fellow contender on the right of the party jostling for position with Braverman and Priti Patel. She has very much been playing to the core audience of party members at fringe circuit and drinks receptions.
On Sunday night she told a drinks do for the rightwing Institute of Economic Affairs and TaxPayers’ Alliance that she thought charities criticising the government should not get public funding, adding: “We are the government, we should mark our own homework.”
Badenoch also hit out at councils for carrying out four-day week experiments, while her conference speech praised Sunak for “bravely … shattering a lazy consensus about the costs of net zero”.
Priti Patel
Patel has been an upbeat presence at Conservative party conference, appearing to enjoy herself in interviews and fringe events with plenty of opinions on policies from the ECHR to demanding tax cuts to counter the “socialist disease” of spending. She has wasted no time in laying into Braverman, her successor as home secretary, and said that her rhetoric on immigration was seeking “attention” without delivery on policy.
Once considered on the very right of the Tories, Patel appears to be now positioning herself as less extreme than Braverman should it come to a leadership contest. A former ally of Boris Johnson, she is not ruling out a tilt at the top job, and spent time wooing the grassroots at the Conservative Democratic Organisation dinner on Sunday night and appearing at the growth rally alongside Truss.
Penny Mordaunt
Mordaunt has been relatively quiet – or certainly not troublemaking – during the first few days of conference. However, she would probably be a contender from the more moderate wing of the Conservatives in any contest to replace Sunak.
A Brexit supporter, she boosted her popularity with Conservative members when she performed a role carrying the ceremonial sword at King Charles’s coronation.
James Cleverly
The foreign secretary had a very short-lived attempt to be leader when Johnson ran in 2019. This time, he is a more weighty figure in the party – and a rare senior cabinet minister that has bridged the Johnson and Sunak eras.
Jovial and almost preternaturally confident, he often turns to humour to deflect difficult questions. Asked about his leadership ambitions at a fringe event on Sunday, Cleverly looked at the floor and picked something up, asking the audience: “Is this a Viagra pill?”
Steered back on to the question, he said he would happily be foreign secretary for ever – which was not quite ruling out a tilt at the top job should the post become vacant.
Tom Tugendhat
The security minister is another centrist candidate after Mordaunt – and it would not stretch credibility to see them on a joint ticket at some stage in a race. Tugendhat ran before and was knocked out early but he is young and new enough to have another go.
He once described the job of prime minister as being “like winning the lottery”. He has been a large presence at fringe events talking on his own subject of security as well as more general “in conversation” sessions that allow him to stray beyond his brief.
Liz Truss
The former prime minister has vocally undermined Sunak with a call for tax cuts focused on slashing corporation tax. In a key speech attended by Nigel Farage, outside the conference centre, she was clearly at pains to present herself as a resurgent political player.
However, she has very little chance of a comeback as a Conservative leader after the economic debacle of 2022 – perhaps only having a shot if she were to be part of any new rightwing party that emerges after the next election.
