THE Tiverton and Honiton by-election gives voters the chance to give the Tory government a bloody nose – and they will, if the bookies are anything to go by.
Bookmakers are predicting the LibDems will demolish the Tory’s enormous majority in what was Neil Parish’s constituency until his career imploded when he was revealed as the MP twice caught watching pornography in parliament.
The Devon constituency is a staunchly Conservative seat, having been represented by Tory MPs since its creation in 1997.
Parish, before his shameful habits were exposed, enjoyed a majority of 24,239 votes.
Residents are about average in terms of wealth for the country, according to the political number crunchers at Electoral Calculus, who also rated them as being “strong right” in their political positions.
Formed by the merging of the separate ancient constituencies of Tiverton and Honiton in 1997, the area has been served by Tory MPs since 1923.
But the LibDems, who have historically enjoyed strong support in the rolling hills of south-west England, are expected to serve a rude awakening to the Tories on Thursday.
Assumptions the party will do well in Tiverton and Honiton are based on the LibDems’ recent upsets delivered in other Tory heartlands.
The current Betfred odds for the Tiverton and Honiton by-election are:
1/4 LibDems150/1 Labour500/1 Greens500/1 Ukip, Heritage, Reform UK and For Britain
Small-c Conservative voters may well be sickened by the antics of the Prime Minister and others in the Tory party – as was evidenced in the shock results in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, historic Tory strongholds – but they might not go as far as backing Labour.
The LibDem-friendly Guardian newspaper has published editorials in recent days, including in its sister title The Observer, calling on voters in the seat to back Ed Davey’s party.
Labour came second in the seat in the last two General Elections after the LibDems' popularity collapsed after the coalition years.
Ukip was runner-up in 2015 and the LibDems took the silver medal every year before that.
But the LibDems stand a fighting chance, with recent results showing Labour's popularity slipping and theirs on the rise again.
It is not thought Keir Starmer has directed many resources to Devon in the run-up to Thursday’s vote, preferring instead to focus Labour’s efforts in retaking Wakefield, a seat also left vacant because of Tory scandal after its Imran Ahmad Khan was jailed for sexually assaulting an underaged boy.
If the Liberals take the seat, it will see the collapse of the largest majority ever tested in a by election.
