The guessing game is nearly over. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has said he has made a decision about who his running mate will be in November – but has yet to tell anyone who it is. Trump is expected to make the announcement any time between now and the Republican national convention in Milwaukee, starting on 15 July.
Once again, the Republican primaries demonstrated Trump’s strength among white men in rural areas, leading to speculation that he will choose a woman or person of colour to broaden his appeal in November. But media reports suggest that he is leaning towards North Dakota’s governor, Doug Burgum, and the Ohio senator JD Vance – both white men. Then again, Trump loves nothing more than suspense and the element of surprise.
Here are some factors to consider and a look at the likely contenders.
Why does Trump need a new running mate?
Former vice-president Mike Pence was a useful ally during the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, a Christian conservative who shored up support among Republicans suspicious of the thrice-married reality TV star. But Pence’s refusal to comply with his boss’s demand to overturn the 2020 election led to a falling-out and made Pence a perceived traitor and target of the January 6 insurrectionists. After a failed bid for president in 2024, Pence recently said in an interview that he will not be endorsing Trump.
What is Trump looking for in a 2024 VP?
Trump has said his top consideration for a vice-president is whether they are qualified to take over as commander-in-chief. But history suggests that he will have five priorities: a “fighter” who can take on Democrats; a person who displays absolute loyalty; a candidate from “central casting” who performs well on television and will be effective on the debate stage against Kamala Harris; a number two who knows their place and will not outshine him on the campaign trail; a go-getter able to raise vast sums of money for the campaign.
Will Trump’s VP pick matter in the 2024 election?
Probably not a lot. There is little evidence that a woman on the ticket draws more female voters or that a running mate’s home state will necessarily back them. Dan Pfeiffer, a White House communications director under Barack Obama, told the New York Times: “The vice-presidential pick is something that generates a massive amount of press coverage but has the most minimal of impacts on the election.”
But perhaps a bad pick can do damage: Republican nominee John McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin in 2008 probably didn’t help. This year, however, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are, again, the two oldest candidates in history, giving new meaning to their VP picks being only “a heartbeat away from the presidency”.
How many VPs have gone on to become president?
Fifteen. Eight of these succeeded to the office on the death of a president, including Lyndon Johnson, who was sworn in onboard Air Force One after the assassination of John F Kennedy. Gerald Ford was the only unelected vice-president and president following the resignations of Spiro Agnew and Richard Nixon. Biden served as vice-president under Barack Obama, who was succeeded by Trump, who was then defeated by Biden for the presidency.
What to know about the Republicans on Trump’s vice-president shortlist
Age: 39
Occupation: Senator for Ohio
The venture capitalist rose to prominence with his 2016 memoir, Hillbilly Elegy. A one-time Trump critic, he is now an ardent supporter and claims to be fighting for the working class by taking on liberals who “populate the upper echelons of American government, business, media, entertainment and academia”. He echoes the former president’s populist views on immigration and an “America First” foreign policy on Ukraine. His friend Donald Trump Jr told Newsmax in January: “I’d love to see a JD Vance. People who are principally in alignment as well as aggressive.”
Age: 67
Occupation: Governor of North Dakota
Burgum would be a Pence-like pick: an unflashy governor not likely to steal Trump’s thunder. He would also bring money and wealthy friends to the table. Before his time as governor, Burgum led a software company that was acquired by Microsoft for more than $1bn. He ran against Trump in the Republican primary but has since become one of his most prolific surrogates, appearing frequently on television, joining him at fundraisers and travelling to New York for Trump’s criminal trial. The pair are also said to have hit it off personally.
Age: 72
Occupation: Retired neurosurgeon
Born in Detroit to a single mother with a third-grade education who worked multiple jobs to support her family, Carson rose to become a leading neurosurgeon – a life story that the Trump campaign could promote as it seeks to win over aspirational Black votes. As housing secretary, Carson was among Trump’s longest-serving cabinet members. He remained loyal to the outgoing president after the 6 January 2021 riot at the US Capitol and campaigned with him in Iowa before the caucuses.
Tulsi Gabbard
Age: 43
Occupation: Rightwing media personality
The former Democratic congresswoman and presidential candidate has rebranded herself as a rightwing media personality. She campaigned for election-denier Kari Lake and other Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. Her provocative critiques of the western foreign policy establishment, and her overtures to dictators such as Putin and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, are likely to resonate with Trump. Asked in March by Fox News if she would consider a vice-presidential slot, Gabbard replied: “I would be open to that.”
Kari Lake
Age: 54
Occupation: Candidate for Senate in Arizona
The firebrand former TV anchor was the breakout Republican star of the midterm elections but lost the race for governor of Arizona, a result she has never accepted. She was endorsed by Trump and continued to repeat his election lies while campaigning as a surrogate for him during the Republican primary. But she may be seen as more valuable running for Senate because she could help Republicans take control of that chamber if she wins.
Age: 38
Occupation: Business executive
The former candidate for the Republican presidential nomination is a political neophyte who shook up the Republican primary debates, acting as unofficial Trump surrogate and earning the scorn of Haley. Trump condemned Ramaswamy as “not Maga” when he gained traction in the opinion polls but has since praised the biotech entrepreneur, who dropped out and threw his weight behind the former president. Ramaswamy is a young person of colour, although his views on the climate crisis are out of step with young voters.
Age: 53
Occupation: Senator for Florida
The former Florida state house speaker was first elected to the Senate in 2010 after stressing his working-class background and “American dream” story as the son of Cuban immigrants who worked as a bartender and hotel maid. Rubio ran for president in 2016, winning the Minnesota primary before dropping out of the race eventually won by Trump, who branded him “Little Marco”. But in the years since then he has become a case study in the Republican party’s capitulation to Trump, endorsing him for president in January 2024.
Tim Scott
Age: 58
Occupation: Senator for South Carolina
The Black evangelical Christian made his own bid for the presidency but dropped out two months before the Iowa caucuses, endorsing Trump and telling him: “I just love you.” The senator might be seen as a way to build on Trump’s recent progress among male African American voters. Asked about potential running mates during a Fox News town hall in February, Trump pointed to Scott and said: “A lot of people are talking about that gentleman right over there.” Scott is single but, with impeccable timing, recently presented his girlfriend with an engagement ring.
Elise Stefanik
Age: 40
Occupation: Representative for New York’s 21st congressional district
The New York politician is the highest-ranking woman in the Republican conference in the House of Representatives and one of the first members of Congress to endorse Trump. Once a moderate, she gained national prominence last year after embarrassing the heads of three top universities about antisemitism on their campuses during a congressional hearing, which prompted two of them to later resign. She has also parroted Trump’s use of the term “hostages” to describe those convicted of crimes on January 6.
