The sudden passing of Pope Francis at 88 has sent shockwaves through the Catholic world, igniting fierce speculation about who will succeed him and the future direction of the Church. As the College of Cardinals prepares for the conclave, the choice of Pope Francis' successor will not only shape debates but also signal whether the Church continues its recent reforms.
With the influence of Francis's presidency still very much in the air, this election is poised to be one of the most consequential in recent memory.
The Legacy of Pope Francis and Its Impact on the Conclave
Since his election in 2013, Francis has radically shifted the Vatican's trajectory, prioritising social justice, environmental concerns, and a more inclusive approach to doctrines. His appointments, including elevating cardinals from beyond Europe and North America, have expanded the voting body's diversity, making predictions more complex. However, his style of governance has left some cardinals wary of how unified the next conclave will be.
A central issue for electors will be whether to maintain Francis's reforms or to steer the Church back toward more conservative doctrines. The handling of sexual abuse cases, transparency, and the Church's engagement with modern society remain contentious. The next pope will inherit a complex landscape, balancing tradition with the need for renewal, and the choices made in the conclave could influence Catholicism for generations.
Frontrunners in the Race for the Papacy
Among the candidates, several stand out due to their experience, ideology, and potential to shape the Church's future. Their profiles reflect a spectrum from reform-minded to traditionalist, with some offering a blend of both.
Jean-Marc Aveline: The French 'John XXIV'
At 66, Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille, is seen as a candidate quite similar to Pope John XXIII, the revolutionary pope of the 1960s. Known for his approachable manner, he frequently cracks jokes and connects easily with congregations. His background is based in theological scholarship, as he holds a doctorate in theology and philosophy.
Born in Algeria to Spanish parents who migrated to France post-independence, Aveline's multicultural roots echo the port city of Marseille's history as a crossroads of faiths. His career accelerated under Francis, culminating in his 2019 elevation to archbishop and a key role organising Mediterranean Church conferences. If elected, he would be the first French pope since the 14th century, and potentially the youngest since John Paul II. However, some say that his limited Italian language skills could complicate diplomatic roles within the Vatican's Roman power structures.
Cardinal Peter Erdo: The Pragmatic Conservative
Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, aged 72, is known for his pragmatic approach and extensive diplomatic experience. His conservative stance on theology is balanced by his ability to work with Francis's reformers, making him a possible compromise candidate. His vocal opposition during the 2015 migrant crisis—describing refugee intake as "human trafficking"—raised eyebrows but did not alienate him from the Vatican leadership.
Fluent in Italian, German, French, Spanish, and Russian, Erdo's linguistic skills could help mend relations with the Russian Orthodox Church amid ongoing conflicts over Ukraine. His career began early, becoming a bishop in his 40s and a cardinal at 51. While not seen as especially charismatic, his calm demeanour might appeal to cardinals seeking stability after Francis's fiery tenure.
Cardinal Mario Grech: The Reformer from Malta
At 68, Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech has become a symbol of Francis's reformist vision. As secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, he's positioned at the heart of efforts to modernise the Church. A former conservative, Grech has shifted towards a more inclusive stance, advocating for LGBT acceptance and contemporary family models.
His outspokenness has earned him both allies and critics, including conservative figures who question his fidelity to doctrine. Coming from a tiny island nation, he seems not to carry much geopolitical baggage and is known for consensus-building. His leadership during the synod process indicates a willingness to adapt, but his close ties to Francis may also make him a target for traditionalists.
Spanish Archbishop Juan José Omella: The Humble Humanitarian
79-year-old Juan José Omella, archbishop of Barcelona, is a great example of Francis's pastoral style. Known for his modest lifestyle and dedication to social justice, Omella has spent his career serving marginalised communities. His background includes work in Africa and a tenure as president of Spain's bishops' conference.
Despite his progressive reputation, Omella's handling of the Church's sexual abuse crisis in Spain has faced criticism, with some questioning the pace of investigations. His being part of the pope's advisory team could work both ways: it could be a sign of continuity or a potential obstacle if the Church seeks a different approach.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin: The Diplomat
A seasoned Vatican diplomat, 70-year-old Pietro Parolin has served as Secretary of State since 2013. His expertise in international relations, notably with China and Middle Eastern nations, positions him as a candidate for stability and continuity. Fluent in multiple languages, Parolin has been central to Vatican diplomacy, often acting as the Church's global envoy.
While more cautious and conservative, his diplomatic skills could appeal to a College seeking a unifying figure. His deep understanding of the Vatican's inner workings makes him a traditional choice, though some question whether he has the charisma to lead a rapidly changing church.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: The First Asian Pope?
At 67, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is often called the 'Asian Francis' for his advocacy of social justice and inclusion. His extensive experience in charitable work and leadership within the Vatican's evangelisation department make him a prominent contender. A natural communicator, he embodies the Church's expanding presence in Asia.
If elected, Tagle would mark a historic shift as the first pope from Southeast Asia, reflecting the Church's growth in the Global South. His reputation for humility and compassion aligns with Francis's style, but questions remain about his management skills, especially following recent controversies in Vatican charities.
Other Notable Candidates
Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, a leading African voice advocating for justice and development, is seen as a possible first pope from sub-Saharan Africa. Conservative Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola and American Cardinal Joseph Tobin also figure as potential contenders, each representing different visions for the Church.
The Road to Conclave: Who Will Ultimately Lead?
The conclave is expected to commence within the next few weeks, with voting conducted in secret inside the Sistine Chapel. A two-thirds majority is required for election, and the process can take multiple rounds, depending on consensus. As history shows, the apparent frontrunner before the ballots are cast often does not secure the throne.
The Church now faces a period that could see a continuation of Francis's reforms or a return to traditional values. The decision will hinge on the cardinals' assessment of who can steer the global Catholic community through contemporary challenges. One thing remains certain: the next pope's identity will affect and define the future of more than a billion lives around the world.
Originally published on IBTimes UK
