Fantasy football season is in full swing, and by now, you've read all of the rankings, sleepers, breakout, and bust lists in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
In addition to pouring over data and looking at offensive schemes to identify standout players, I, much like Michael Fabiano, have been drafting non-stop since July. I've found that, though I like a lot of players, there are a few that I have really been gravitating toward. Sometimes, it's because of the value; sometimes, it is because of the opportunity; and sometimes, it's simply because I believe in the player's elite skill set.
Here are ten players I love in 2024. These aren't deep sleepers (read about some of those who I love here); these are guys I want as the bedrock of my team. Don't leave your draft without at least a couple of these standouts. I have written about some of these players at length this season, and others I have not written about. After all, I had to keep a few cards close to my vest if you're in one of my fantasy leagues.
Here they are: "My Guys" for 2024.
1. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
Yes, I am a Cowboys fan. No, that's not why I am picking Lamb as number one overall. At least, that's what I've told myself. Here are my reasons that back that up:
Cee Dee Lamb led the league in targets in 2023, accumulating a whopping 181 and playing a full 17 games. He finished as the WR1 in PPR leagues and has the chance to repeat in 2024 with no real competition for targets in Dallas. He just signed a 34-million dollar contract that guarantees that target-share.
In addition to leading the NFL in catches and targets last season, Lamb also tied for third among wideouts with 14 carries. Those carries went for 114 yards and two touchdowns. Lamb finished with 14 total touchdowns on the season. Fourteen.
Ok, I admit 14 will be hard to repeat, but Lamb has the durability to have a shot at it. He has missed only one game in his four NFL seasons.
Dak Prescott, who is also looking for a contract with Dallas or is playing for a new one somewhere else, passed for a league-leading 36 touchdowns last season. With a limited run game in Dallas (no, Dalvin Cook doesn't move the needle that much), we should expect this passing offense to remain explosive.
Only let the idea that Lamb will be double-teamed scare you off if you also faded Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes with Tyreek Hill. Lamb is in that elite company. In 2023, Lamb was targeted on a career-high 28.3 percent of his routes and caught nearly 75% of those targets even though defenses knew what was coming.
2. AJ Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
AJ Brown is falling to the last pick of the first round, and in PPR leagues, that is a crime.
I'm all in on the Garrett Wilson breakout (you can read more about that here), but I can't quite move him ahead of Brown in the first round. Brown offers such a solid floor with tantalizing upside. Having Saquon around should only boost that upside for Brown, too.
Jalen Hurts may actually put the ball in the air even more often this season, and Brown is his favorite target. Brown owned 41.4% of the team's air yards in 2023 (6th in NFL), while also commanding a 31.3% target share (3rd). It's true that Brown faded down the stretch, which is probably why we are getting such good value. Brown started 2023 with six straight games with at least 127 yards (Weeks 3-8), then had just two TDs and a single 100-yard outing the rest of the year despite averaging 9.4 targets per game the rest of the season.
Supposedly, the vibes are better in Philly this year, and according to oddsmakers in Vegas, Brown should be in store for a big one. His receiving yards betting total is set up at 1250.5, and his touchdown futures are at 8.5. With Kellen Moore joining the team as offensive coordinator, we should expect to see Brown featured in this offense.
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
I will admit something: I have never drafted Lamar before this year in fantasy football. Is that ridiculous? Probably. But somehow, the value has never been there for me to take the shot. I've always worried I am a year too late.
That has changed for me this year. I find myself drafting Lamar often - especially in SuperFlex Leagues. I think Lamar could easily finish as the QB1 overall, yet he's frequently the fourth QB off the board. I can't wait to see his second season in this Todd Monken offense.
There's a reason Lamar won the 2023 MVP. Jackson ran for 821 yards and five rushing touchdowns while also passing for 3,678 yards with a 102.7 passer rating and 24 touchdowns through the air. Jackson combined for 29 total touchdowns - two more than Patrick Mahomes.
As a fantasy quarterback, Jackson finished QB4 overall and QB3 on a per-game basis, with an average of 20.7 PPR points per game. If you include the postseason, those numbers would be even higher. Lamar scored 27 PPR points per game in his two postseason matchups.
With the threat of Derrick Henry in the run game, we should continue to see Jackson use his wheels while the passing game is also opened up.As a passer, he should only continue to thrive with a fully healthy Mark Andrews (Andrews missed half of last season) and Zay Flowers. That should add up to plenty of fantasy success.
4. DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf has fallen too far in drafts, and my guess is that's because fantasy managers find it hard to forget the idea of a Pete Carroll offense. I'm happy to take advantage.
(Full disclosure: I am drafting a lot of Seahawks and Chargers this season at what I believe are sold values because the market is overcorrecting).
This Seahawks offense should look entirely different under new OC Ryan Grubb. This team will push the ball downfield in what should be an Air Raid offense. Expect to see plenty of three and four-wide-receiver sets, and Metcalf will be the alpha.
DK Metcalf is tied for the most red zone targets since 2022 (54) but has suffered a 3.98 expected touchdown shortfall, the seventh-biggest at his position.
He's a significant threat to return to 10 scores in 2024. DK Metcalf needs 900 receiving yards and five touchdowns to join Randy Moss as the only players in NFL history to do so in each of their first six seasons.
Metcalf is going on the 3/ 4 round turn, but he could easily finish the season with first-round value. Last year, Metcalf finished with 1,114 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while commanding 38% of the team's air yards and 22% of the targets.
5. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
If I miss out on Metcalf, I target McLaurin. Sometimes, I even get both when I have loaded up on high-end runners.
McLaurin showed off his deep-threat ability for the Commanders in 2023, catching 79 passes for 1,002 yards and four touchdowns, and this season, he should have the best QB play of his career from Jayden Daniels, who is an extremely accurate deep passer. McLaurin will be the clear alpha in this offense that lost Curtis Samuel in the off-season and traded Jahan Dotson to the Eagles last week. Kliff Kingsbury will make his mark as the new OC in what should be a modified air raid offense.
6. Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
I don't care that Derrick Henry is 30 years old; he's a unicorn, and I will ride that unicorn as long as possible.
Derrick Henry heads to the Ravens, joining the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, in Baltimore. This offense looked different with Todd Monken last season, but they led the league with 541 rushing attempts as a team. Jackson himself was responsible for 148 of those attempts and 821 ground yards- his most since 2020. The rest of the ground game was led by a combination of Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, and Justice Hill. Edwards led the group with 810 rushing yards and a whopping 13 rushing touchdowns. Edwards has now gone to the Chargers, and Keaton Mitchell is on the PUP list.
Henry led the league with 280 attempts for the Titans last season, averaging 4.17 yards per carry (Edwards averaged 4.09) for a total of 1,167 yards and tallied 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for fifth). He did all of that despite a struggling offense, inconsistent quarterback play, and an offensive line that ranked among the worst in the NFL.
Playing alongside Lamar Jackson should only be a boon for Henry. Though Jackson could steal some of the rushing yards, he is unlikely to steal the goal-line carries. Despite leading all QBs in rushing yards last season, Jackson only tallied five rushing touchdowns. That's fewer than Joshua Dobbs and only one more than Trevor Lawrence. Henry should still be a goal-line monster. Jackson has a career 5.9% passing touchdown rate — that's better than Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler Murray. Look for Monken to encourage more of it from Jackson.
Derrick Henry has logged 1,000 or more yards in five of his last six seasons, with the only outlier being in 2021, when he missed half the season due to injury. He still tallied 937 rushing yards in 2021 in fewer than eight complete games, putting him on pace for potential back-to-back 2,000-yard seasons. He led the league in rushing yards in both the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
For his career, he has averaged 79.8 yards per game and 4.7 yards per attempt.
Henry has been incredibly durable throughout his career, with the broken foot in 2021 being the outlier. Even still, just playing eight games that season, he tallied more rushing yards than most runners in an entire season (937).
The biggest knock on Henry is certainly not his health- it's his age. Henry is in his age-30 season. Injury risk is less of a concern than potential age-related decline. Typically, running backs decline quickly after age 28. However, it's fair to say that Derrick Henry is far from typical.
7. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
I'll keep this one brief, as I know this article is getting a little long. I am all in on a bounce-back season for Taylor, who was the RB8 last season on a per-game basis after he returned from inquiry mid-season. Taylor ran for 704 yards and seven touchdowns on 155 carries (4.5 YPC) over his final eight games, and those numbers should only get better this year as he is fully healthy. Zack Moss departed in the off-season, and Taylor should reclaim the workhorse role fully. This offense should look much more competitive with a fully healthy Anthony Richardson at quarterback, too.
8. Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs has finally fallen far enough in drafts that I am all in on his value.
With the news that AJ Dillon is on the season-ending IR with a neck injury, the Packers are down to just three runners in Green Bay. Backing up Jacobs will be third-round pick rookie Marshawn Lloyd, who missed most of the preseason, first with a hip injury and then with a hamstring injury. Lloyd is expected to be ready to start the season, but it's fair to say the Packers should be leaning on their bell cow- especially with Lloyd's propensity for fumbling the football in college.
Jacobs is one season removed from leading the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards with the Raiders. Jacobs was a true workhorse back, with 340 attempts that season — second only to Derrick Henry. He averaged 20 rushing attempts and 97.2 ground yards per game, and an incredible 821 of his total rushing yards came after contact. Jacobs is a tough runner, and he also had a career-high 400 receiving yards on 68 targets in 2022.
2023 was terrible for Jacobs. I won't sugarcoat it. Jacobs averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per attempt and missed four games due to injury. However, there are enough reasons to be optimistic about his current average draft position (ADP) as the RB11. Jacobs was subject to poor blocking and/or poor quarterback play in Las Vegas for most of his first five years in the NFL, and he has still been able to put up at least 800 yards in each season. The move to Green Bay should be a boon for Jacobs, who will get the benefit of far better quarterback play, coaching, and a competent offensive line.
9. Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
No team targeted their running backs more than Sean Peyton's Denver Broncos in 2023. Sure, some of that was dump-offs from Russell Wilson, but let's not forget PPR superstar Alvin Kamara, who was a monster in Peyton's system in New Orleans too.
Williams was able to put up 1,000 all-purpose yards last season despite being in recovery from a PCL, MCL, and ACL tear. This year, he should be fully healthy, and as the Broncos just cut Samaje Perine so that he could sign with the Chiefs, Denver must be confident in Williams. Jaleel McLaughlin will be his primary backup, but this should be William's show in an offense that looks to improve with Bo Nix under center. Williams was a popular breakout candidate before he was injured in 2022, and who is to say he can't still break out in 2024?
At his current ADP as the RB27 off the board, I will continue to draft him every chance I get.
10. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
There are 240 targets up for grabs in Buffalo, and the only competition for Kincaid is Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Keon Coleman. Expect Kincaid to be a primary target for Josh Allen.
Once Joe Brady took over the offense in Week 11, Kincaid averaged nearly eight targets per game. He finished his rookie season with the second-most targets for the Bulls.
Kincaid ran a route 70% of the time on the field, blocking only 6%. His 91 targets and 467 routes were the eight-most at the position.
Kincaid has the opportunity to make a significant leap in 2024.
For more of my favorite fantasy football draft picks this season, don't forget to check out my sleeper picks and more in the 2024 SI Fantasy draft kit!
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Who To Draft in Fantasy Football: Jen Piacenti's 10 Must Draft Players for 2024.
