The Oscars can be pretty predictable - so who’s going to be taking home one of the top awards at the Oscars on Sunday. It’s been years since there’s been a good shock winner - like Adrian Brody in the Pianist beating the heavily favoured Daniel Day-Lewis in 2003. And this year, again the frontrunners in some categories are already miles ahead, but some awards still look competitive (and shocks are always a possibility).
Based on the predictive patterns of other awards over the past 22 years, this may mean it’s already pretty clear who is going to win (which could at least save you staying up till 5am to see the golden envelopes get opened).
Best Picture
This looks like a likely win for The Power of the Dog. Most of the top predictors for this category have gone to the Jane Campion-directed film. The Directors Guild’s pick for outstanding achievement in directing predicts the winner 68% of the time, as does the Critics Choice Award, and both went to The Power of the Dog this year. The film also won the Bafta and the Chicago Film Critics award (both the same pick 45% of the time) and the Golden Globe for best drama (43%).
However, its closest competitor is likely to be CODA, which picked up the award at the Producers Guild Award, which predicts who gets the Oscar 66% of the time, and the ensemble cast award at the Screen Actors Guild, which predicts 50% of the time.
Best Director
Jane Campion is miles ahead in this category. The only other nominee to pick up a big award this season is Paul Thomas Anderson - from the National Board of Review, which predicts the Oscar 9% of the time.
Not only has The Power of the Dog director won the Directors Guild Award, the best predictor of Oscar success by some way at 82%, she’s also won the Critics Choice Award, which predicts 59% of the time, the Bafta, which predicts the Oscar 55% of the time, and a Golden Globe, also 55%. It’s also fairly common for the Oscars to give awards for Best Film and Best Director to the same movie - 14 times in the past 22 award seasons.
Best Actor
It’s looking very much like third time’s a charm for Will Smith. The actor is the clear favourite to get the Oscar on Sunday, after previous nominations for Ali and The Pursuit of Happiness. So far this awards season he’s won the Screen Actors Guild award (predicts the Oscar 73% of the time, the Critics Choice award (68%), the Golden Globe for performance in a drama (59%).
He also won the Bafta for his performance as Richard Williams, father and coach to Venus and Serena Williams. The Bafta was the only award that went to last year’s winner Anthony Hopkins, giving it a seven-year streak matching the Oscar, one that might be set to continue. Benedict Cumberbatch looked like an early front runner in this category, picking up several critics awards. However, he’s missed out on the more highly predictive awards in recent weeks.
Best Actress
This category is much more competitive than the previous three - based on the award season so far, it’s a fairly tight race with several nominees potentially still in with a chance. The most predictive awards have gone to different actresses this year - and one went to someone who isn’t nominated for the Oscar.
Joanna Scanlan, for After Love, won the Bafta (which predicts the Oscars 73% of the time, and has had the same pick for the past eight years), but she isn’t nominated for the Oscar. Jessica Chastain, for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, won the Screen Actors Guild award which predicts 68% of the time), while Nicole Kidman, for Being the Ricardos, won the Golden Globe for performance in a drama (64% of the time). Jessica Chastain may be slightly ahead here as she also won the Critics Choice award (predicts 55% of the time).
Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Best supporting actor is another category that looks tight (for the first time in years), with Kodi Smit-McPhee, in The Power of the Dog, and Troy Kotsur, for CODA battling it out.
The most predictive awards - the Golden Globes, which predicts the Oscar 77% of the time, Screen Actors Guild (68%), Critics Choice (64%), and Baftas (61%) - have, in recent years, all gone to the same actor. That includes Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah last year, as well as Sam Rockwell in 2018, Mahershala Ali in 2019, and Brad Pitt in 2020 (as well as on five other occasions since 2000).
However, this year the Golden Globe (and a host of critics awards) went to Kodi Smit-McPhee, but the other three have gone to Troy Kotsur, making this the closest category. With three of the big predictors, Troy Kotsur may be just out in front.
Best supporting actress seems much more clear-cut. The four best predictors - the Screen Actors Guild award (predicts 77% of the time), Critics Choice (73%), Baftas (68%), and Golden Globes (64%) have all gone to Ariana DeBose for West Side Story.
These awards have agreed and predicted the Oscar nine times in the past 22 years.
And the other awards go to...
Best Animation is also looking fairly predictable, even if this year some of the bigger awards did have different picks. Encanto has picked up the most awards in the run-up, including the American Cinema Editors award, which has only incorrectly predicted the Oscar once since 2010 (it went for The Lego Movie in 2015, which wasn’t nominated at the Oscars).
Encanto may not triumph in the best song category. Few other ceremonies give awards for this, but both the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice awards have gone to Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell’s No Time to Die - that would make it the third Bond theme in a row to win.
When it comes to best score, with a Golden Globe, right 59% of the time, a Bafta and a Critics’ Choice award, both right 55% of the time, Hans Zimmer looks the most likely to win for Dune.
Best Documentary looks very likely to go to Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised). It’s won the American Cinema Editors awards (which predict 67% of the time), the Bafta (50%), and the Producers Guild Award (43%), as well as other critics awards.
In the International Film category, Drive My Car is the nominee with the most previous success, having won a Golden Globe, Bafta, and Critics’ Choice award.
In the writing awards - the Writers Guild of America Awards predict the Oscar winner for original screenplay 68% of the time - it went for Don’t Look Up for best original screenplay but it was the only award to do so. Slightly more awarded was Licorice Pizza, which may mean it just pips it.
CODA is the top pick for adapted screenplay having won the Writers Guild of America award (predicts the Oscar 64% of the time), and the Bafta (50%).
Our data-driven Oscar picks
- BEST FILM // The Power of the Dog
- BEST ACTOR // Will Smith (King Richard)
- BEST ACTRESS // Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR // Troy Kotsur (CODA)
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS // Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
- BEST DIRECTOR // Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE // Encanto
- BEST DOCUMENTARY // Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
- BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE / / Drive My Car
- ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY // Licorice Pizza
- ADAPTED SCREENPLAY // CODA
- BEST SCORE // Dune
- BEST SONG // No Time to Die
