Liz Truss is fighting for her premiership after the disastrous mini-Budget caused market turmoil and a spectacular crash in Tory polls numbers.
New chancellor Jeremy Hunt is in the process completely reversing the PM’s economic strategy, announcing further U-turns on tax cuts and a plan for spending cuts today.
But Tory MPs are already plotting to replace Ms Truss “within days”, discussing how to coalesce around a single candidate – and whether the 1922 Committee can be persuaded to change its “grace period” rules.
The Independent sets out the most likely contenders to be the PM, if Ms Truss loses a no-confidence vote or is persuaded by a delegation of grandees she must stand down.
The former chancellor remains the most likely person to succeed Ms Truss if it becomes clear she will have to resign, and is the strong favourite with the bookmakers.
Some backbenchers have been discussing a joint Rishi Sunak-Penny Mordaunt ticket, if they can agree which one will be step forward to become PM in a “coronation” if Ms Truss is forced to quit.
Sunak allies will point to the fact he was the most popular choice with parliamentarians during the first stage of the leadership contest, winning the support of 137 MPs to Ms Mordaunt’s 105 votes.
Senior Tory Mel Stride, who ran Mr Sunak’s campaign, is said to be holding a dinner with his backers tonight. The combination of both Sunak and Mordaunt supporters would be overwhelming. But it may be necessary.
Around two thirds of the party’s nearly 360 MPs – roughly 240 – would have to make clear to the 1922 Committee that they want to change the “grace period” rule which currently protects the PM from a no-confidence vote for 12 months, according to Bloomberg.
The current leader of the Commons, who emphasised the need to control inflation during her breakthrough leadership campaign, remains a favourite among many Tory moderates who want a change of course on the economy.
But by taking a top job in the Truss government, it could be she has already lost her chance to be the fresh start many MPs will be hoping for.
If the event that there is a very short leadership contest compromised of a few candidates, rather than a coronation – Ms Mordaunt would look to win over Boris Johnson allies who still resent Mr Sunak’s dramatic resignation way back in the distant days of early July.
It emerged over the weekend that allies of the defence secretary have been canvassing support among MPs for him to front a takeover.
Mr Wallace decided not to stand for the leadership this summer, despite being very popular with the Tory grassroots, citing his desire to “focus is on my current job … keeping this great country safe”.
However, it is clear the grassroots would not get a say if there several candidates did force a leadership contest in the weeks ahead. “There’s no way we can put it to members again,” one MP told The Independent.
Some MPs are keen that the party’s constitution is changed so that grassroots members no longer elect the leader when the party is in power, and only get a say when in opposition, according to The Telegraph.
So Mr Wallace faces the potentially awkward task of trying to canvass for support among Johnson allies and regretful Truss backers in parliament while still in Ms Truss’s government.
The newly-installed chancellor would have only an outside of becoming the next prime minister in event of a coup-like push against Ms Truss.
There is speculation Mr Sunak could agree to keep fellow moderate Mr Hunt in place at No 11 if he succeeds in taking over at No 10.
But if there is a clamour for a short but robust contest, the former health secretary may fancy another tilt at the top job, having lost out to Boris Johnson in 2019.
Could the former PM – ousted in July after many, many months of frustration over his handling of Partygate and other scandals – make a dramatic comeback bid?
While unlikely, both allies and enemies of Mr Johnson have spent the summer speculating on his desire to return to No 10. In his resignation speech he even likened himself to Cincinnatus, asked to return to Rome and lead as dictator.
Ex-adviser Dominic Cummings claimed Mr Johnson had quietly supported Truss’ campaign because he “knows she’s mad and thinks she’ll blow and he can make a comeback”.
Despite some regret in the party about removing him, the long poll decline under Johnson and his tarnished public reputation means he is unlikely to win the support of a majority of MPs, even if a contest were to take place several months from now.
