The Tory leadership race is nearing its final stage, as members of the Conservative Party will soon begin voting for who they want to replace Boris Johnson when he steps down in September.
The past few weeks of the campaign have seen top Tory MPs clash over taxes, immigration and fashion, and the number of contenders get whittled down from 11 to two. The Conservative Party members now have to decide whether they want former Chancellor Rishi Sunak or Foreign Secretary Liz Truss to be their new leader and the next Prime Minister.
The party members have a month to decide who they want as their next leader, as votes must be cast by the 2 September deadline. Although there is no exact data for the current number of members who will decide the next leader of the country, a social media post from 2019 by then Party Chairman Brandon Lewis suggests there are around 180,000.
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The winner of the contest is set to be announced on 5 September, and will be appointed Prime Minister the following day. So with a little over a month before the next leader of the UK is decided, how are the contenders performing in the eyes of voters?
Immediately following Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss’ first head-to-head TV debate on 25 July, a snap poll of 1,032 voters found Sunak just came out on top, with 39% believing he had performed best compared to 38% for Truss. The outlook has changed significantly since then, as the latest polling suggests Sunak appears to have lost ground in the race.
A new YouGov poll puts Liz Truss well ahead of Sunak in support from party members, with her lead now increased to 34 points. The poll shows 60% of the party members polled between July 29 and August 2 say they intend to vote for Truss, up from 49% since the period July 20 to 21 when the rivals first made the cut for the final two.
Support for Sunak has dropped from 31% to 26% according to YouGov, while the rest of the 1,043 Conservative party members polled say they are undecided or will not vote.
NEW Conservative members leadership poll (29 Jul - 2 Aug)
Headline VI
Truss: 69% (+7 from 20-21 Jul)
Sunak: 31% (-7)
Full response
Truss: 60% (+11)
Sunak: 26% (-5)
Don't know/won't vote: 13% (-8) https://t.co/wGmRqtYJgX pic.twitter.com/51YpXQCzCF— YouGov (@YouGov)
In a further blow to the former Chancellor, YouGov data also showed 83% of those who currently say they intend to vote for Liz Truss also say they have made up their mind. Just 17% say they might change their mind while 29% of Mr Sunak’s supporters say they could still vote differently.
On Wednesday, it was reported that ballot deliveries had been delayed over cyber-security concerns, something the Sunak campaign hope would allow more time to make an impression before votes are cast. Sunak will be hoping the additional time to make his case before the first votes are cast will fall in his favour.
But after a mixed day which saw Liz Truss accused of a dramatic U-turn as she abandoned her proposal to slash £8.8 billion from public sector pay outside London, Ms Truss did receive a campaign boost with backing from the Daily Mail.
A Liz Truss campaign source said on the YouGov polling: “Members are making up their mind, and they are supporting Liz. Her bold and ambitious plan for the country and economy is uniting Conservatives right across our nation.
"But we are certainly not complacent, Liz is fighting for every vote, meeting as many members as possible.”
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