With the recent news of Christian McCaffrey's calf strain, it's worth asking a big question: who is the top running back in fantasy football this season?
McCaffrey was the clear number one in 2023, outsourcing the next-best running back, Raheem Mostert, by 123 PPR points. McCaffrey's 391 points also outscored the top wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, who totaled 336.
When it comes to both talent and the offensive system, McCaffrey has enormous advantages. But what if we have already seen peak McCaffrey? At age 28, time is not on his side, and calf strains are notoriously slow-healing and reinjure easily. Those who rostered Joe Burrow last season know how frustrating that injury can be.
I'm not saying McCaffrey won't be great. I am still fine taking him at number one overall if none of the above things give you pause. After all, he's one of the few runners that we know will be the focal point of an offense and operate like a bell cow.
But what if it is someone else?
The last time a running back finished number one overall in back-to-back seasons was LaDanian Tomlinson in 2002/2003 (shoutout to my fellow TCU Horned Frog!). No matter how good McCaffrey is, he's no lock to finish at the top of all RBs in fantasy scoring again.
Here are a few contenders for taking the RB1 title this year. Consider these players in the early rounds if you're fading McCaffrey.
The Case for Breece Hall as the Top RB in Fantasy Football
Breece Hall will eat in this Jets offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Remember peak Aaron Jones in Green Bay?
Last season, despite returning from a torn ACL and dealing with some of the league's worst QB play, Hall finished as the RB6 per game and led all runners in running backs in targets, receiving yards, and receptions.
With a limited receiving corps in New York (Garrett Wilson will be ahead of Mike Williams, who is returning from injury), Hall should continue to see targets from Aaron Rodgers. The Jets should also be in more positive game scripts this season, and more than a year removed from his knee injury, we should see Hall's efficiency improve, too.
Could Bijan Robinson Be Fantasy Football's Top RB in 2024?
I am so in on Bijan Robinson.
I'm just going to drop this quote from Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson right here:
"Bijan's such a talented player. He's gonna play running back, first and foremost — and then any way we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey is exactly right."
We've been waiting for the Bijan breakout and have the perfect storm for it in 2024. Robinson is an eighth overall draft pick who scored 41 TDs in 31 college games and ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at a solid 216 pounds, and now he is free from an Arthur Smith offense. Ignore recent reports that suggest he's in a timeshare with Allegeier. Robinson will be the threat. Kirk Cousins will only open up the run game more for Robinson while throwing him more catchable targets.
Dark Horse Pick: Could it Be Derrick Henry?
Yes, I skipped quite a few runners here. I can't write this article without ruffling a few feathers!
Do you know what adds up in fantasy? Touchdowns. Look at Raheem Mostert last season. How did he end up the RB2? Touchdowns. He had twenty-one of them. Mostert also ran for 1,012 yards, which ranked tenth behind Derrick Henry, who had the second-most after CMC with 1,167.
Henry had 12 rushing touchdowns with the Titans last season despite their struggling offense, inconsistent quarterback play, and offensive line that ranked among the worst in the NFL.
Now, he lands in Baltimore in a perfect environment. No team runs more than the Ravens, whose 2,661 total rushing yards led the league in 2023. Many of those yards were courtesy of mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson, who led the team with 821 rushing yards. However, unlike in Philadelphia, where Jalen Hurts vultures touchdowns from his running backs, Baltimore likes to give the goal-line duties to the runners. Gus Edwards' 13 rushing touchdowns tied for the third-most in the NFL last season. As a whole, the Ravens running back room tallied 20.
Both Edwards and Dobbins are in Los Angeles, and Keaton Mitchell is injured.
The threat of Lamar Jackson on the ground will only open things up for Henry.
Henry has logged 1,000 or more yards in five of his last six seasons, with the only outlier being in 2021, when he missed half the season due to injury. He still tallied 937 rushing yards in fewer than eight complete games, which had him on pace for potential back-to-back 2,000-yard seasons. In 2022, Henry silenced the doubters who said he was too old and injured by running for 1,538 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.
And now, at age 30, he will be playing with the best quarterback of his career. I believe this running back room is no longer a "room." It's all Derrick Henry all the time.
But the best part? Henry isn't going until the second or third round in many drafts, so you don't have to pay first-round prices if you're buying what I'm selling.
And now a rapid fire list of other runners with a case:
- Saquon Barkley, though the Jalen Hurts tush-push may limit his touchdown upside.
- Jonathan Taylor, who should be fully healthy this season and gets the benefit of Anthony Richardson being healthy, too.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, who should be a PPR machine, but will still share some with Montgomery
- De'Von Achane, who flashed last season and could break out this year, though we should not discount Raheem Mostert entirely.
Looking for more fantasy football analysis before your 2024 draft? Be sure to check out the SI Fantasy 2024 Draft Kit for all the information you could possibly need, including our full running back rankings.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Who is the Top RB in Fantasy Football for 2024? Can Christian McCaffrey Repeat?.
