PITTSBURGH — The question of who will win the Steelers' quarterback competition has been asked ad nauseam since the night they drafted Kenny Pickett in the first round. But what about the question of how the job will be won?
In general, the Venn diagram of Pickett and Mitch Trubisky has more in the middle than it does on the outsides, but what we're going to do here is analyze what might separate the two as players. And that's going beyond the obvious — one is a five-year NFL veteran, the other is a rookie. Physically, the tale of the tape is strikingly similar.
Trubisky is 6-foot-2, 220 pounds; Pickett is listed at 6-3 and the same weight. Athletically, Trubisky ran a 4.67-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine five years ago, while Pickett ran a 4.73 this past March. Trubisky posted a time of 4.25 in the 20-yard shuttle run, Pickett a 4.29. Pickett out-jumped Trubisky, 33 1/2 to 27 1/2 , in the vertical leap and broad-jumped five inches farther.
So with all those tangibles difficult to differentiate, we turned to a few experts who have watched, studied and discussed both quarterbacks extensively to pinpoint where one has an advantage over the other and vice versa.
Louis Riddick, ESPN analyst
For starters, Riddick insists his outlook on the Steelers' quarterback position, and by extension Pickett, is not compromised by his alma mater. Riddick is a Pitt man but said he has no problem being objective when it comes to this conversation.
What Riddick sees in Trubisky versus Pickett are the same broad strokes that will pop up again as we delve into further analysis of the two combatants.
"They're very similar in terms of their athleticism," Riddick told the Post-Gazette in May, when he still was a candidate to succeed Kevin Colbert as Steelers general manager. "Mitch is probably a little bit faster, maybe a little bit thicker at this point, although I believe Kenny is taller. I don't know if Mitchell's as good in the pocket as far as being a drop-back passer as Kenny is. On first and second down, Trubisky can give you problems, now. Especially when you're talking about the RPO game, run-pass option, getting him out on the perimeter — I mean, he can turn into a running back.
"Don't ever count Kenny out in that matter, either. You saw what happened against Wake in the bowl game. Minus the fake slide, whatever you want to call it, he can run. But Kenny is a great thrower from the pocket. If it's third down and a team knows you have to throw the football, he can really dice you up."
To that point, Trubisky was considered an accurate passer when he was at the same stage as Pickett. Before the Bears made him the No. 2 overall pick in 2017, he completed 68% of his throws in his lone season starting for North Carolina, and was 62% on intermediate passes, according to the NFL.com pre-draft scouting report that also praised his accuracy on "standard 'pitch and catch' throws."
Last year at Pitt, Pickett had a 67.2 completion percentage on 50 more attempts. There they go again, being the same darn player, right? Time will tell whether Pickett's NFL accuracy can surpass the 64% Trubisky posted over four up-and-down seasons with the Bears.
"He was the best passer in college football last year throwing the football between the numbers," Riddick said of Pickett. "You have to be able to do that in the NFL. That's something that Mitchell still needs to get good at. They have great competition now within the quarterback room in Pittsburgh — great competition. These guys will complement one another. May the best man win. I think that's a great job, really, by Kevin Colbert of putting together a competitive quarterback room with guys who have high football intellect and are going to be coached and shaped by one of the great football coaches of all time in Mike Tomlin."
Charles Davis, CBS analyst
The Steelers face the Lions in their third preseason game, and longtime NFL broadcaster Charles Davis will be on the call. As he sees it, if Pickett is playing in that final exhibition and Trubisky isn't, we'll know who got the gig.
But for those penciling in Trubisky as the starter, Davis offers words of caution: "Without knowing exactly what Kevin Colbert, Mike Tomlin, Omar Khan and crew were thinking, to me, you don't draft a quarterback in the first round these days — I don't care what number — unless you're expecting him to play."
Like Riddick, Davis was a big fan of Pickett this past season and going into the draft. He saw a fifth-year senior who benefited greatly from returning to school and improving with more seasoning — the kind of experience that Trubisky didn't have when he entered the league.
"What I like about Trubisky is he's a very serious-minded young man. I've had a lot of games with him and been around him," Davis said. "He loves ball, cares about it a lot, but that one year of playing in college, he was playing catch-up a little bit. Decision-making, that can be an issue for him. I think why he fit in Buffalo so well last year [as a backup] is that offense caters to what he does best. Look at how Josh Allen plays. And I'm not saying Trubisky is Josh, but very similar athletic skill set with the ability to use their legs, get outside the pocket, create a half-field read, cut down on the amount of traffic that you're looking at downfield."
Davis also pointed to Trubisky's preseason game last year against his old team when he played loose and pressure-free to the tune of 221 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions on 20-of-28 passing. Trubisky has offered nothing but rave reviews of what amounted to his NFL redshirt year in 2021 with the Bills. He's been subtle about it, but Trubisky has made it clear that the quarterback room in Buffalo — and the entire offense, really — was in good working order when compared to a Bears situation that was in disarray under now-fired coach and play-caller Matt Nagy. But more on that later.
Davis, who correctly projected Pickett to Pittsburgh in his first mock draft for NFL.com before switching to Desmond Ridder then Malik Willis (hey, there's something to be said for going with your gut), used to be skeptical of players — especially quarterbacks — who make a huge leap in just one year's time. Now, he's seeing it more in the college ranks, and like many other observers, he threw out Joe Burrow's rapid ascent while explaining why Pickett's was no fluke.
"His decision-making sped up. His process got faster, but not out of control; he was totally in control of his process," Davis said. "He has mobility that's underrated. I don't think he's as good an athlete as Mitch Trubisky, but that doesn't mean he's not an athlete. He is. Everyone saw the fake slide, but you can find a bunch of other plays of him escaping trouble, making extra time, making the right decision, the right throw. He has enough arm. I think Trubisky has a stronger arm, but Pickett's last season at Pitt, he was extremely accurate, took care of the ball well and led that team to the ACC championship. I thought that was a big deal. I like guys that add winning to their resume."
Lastly, Davis is asked to put a finger on which quarterback has the higher upside, the soon-to-be-28-year-old Trubisky or recently-turned-24 Pickett. His overarching thought is that the "ceiling" discussion too often gravitates toward athletic attributes. In that sense, he doesn't see much growth potential in Pickett as a five-year college player.
But Davis is adamant that Pickett already has enough mobility, enough arm strength and, yes, big enough hands that he can continue to improve in the NFL in other ways — with his mind, Davis says, and his work ethic.
"He's going to make better decisions, decipher defenses faster, get in that flow — if he's the guy who's going to get those reps," Davis said, also comparing Pickett in that way to second-year Patriots quarterback Mac Jones. "Mac is not a superior athlete by any stretch. The key for both is can they do things when things break down outside the pocket? I think Kenny Pickett will be viewed in somewhat that light. Is he the kind of guy that really elevates you? Or is he the guy that's just pretty good when things are going well?
"I happen to think he's got good upside. But I think Trubisky does, as well. We just didn't get a chance to see it. We thought we would've seen that, but that doesn't mean it's not there. He's going to have to prove, right now, his upside is what we think."
Chris Simms, NBC analyst
Riddick and Davis are well-versed in NFL circles and spend more time around the league than just about any media members throughout a season. But now, we enter our "quarterback guru" phase of comparing and contrasting Trubisky and Pickett.
Simms, the son of Phil who was a third-round pick in 2003 before bouncing around the NFL for eight years and having a cup of coffee as a Patriots assistant, ranks the top 40 quarterbacks each offseason. He explains his rationale in great detail. And going back to draft time, Simms was not in the camp that believes the Steelers took Pickett too early. Based on conversations he had and things he knew about teams around the league, Simms thinks someone would've jumped at the chance to take Pickett at the top of the second round, at the latest.
"He's a good athlete with a good arm. None of it's great, but it's all good," Simms said on his post-draft podcast, also comparing Pickett to Jones, the 15th overall pick last year by Bill Belichick.
"I don't know if I ever see top five-talent play. I'm not going to lie. I hope I'm wrong, and I hope he proves me wrong. ... But he could maybe be a 10 or 11 guy. There's nothing wrong with that. You can win Super Bowls with a 10 or 11 guy. You definitely can. That's kind of the way I see him — no [Patrick] Mahomes or Josh Allen strike-gold type of player."
Interestingly, Simms initially predicted the "pro-ready" Pickett would beat out Trubisky largely because of the franchise's familiarity with him and first-round investment. He handicapped the competition this way:
"Listen, Trubisky's got talent. There's no doubt," Simms said May 11. "He's a good athlete. He does have a strong arm, there's no question. The things we need to see from Trubisky — I think he's grown. We saw it in the preseason with Buffalo last year. It was in the pocket, dicing people up, doing that stuff. That was not his bread-and-butter in Chicago. You'd go, 'Oh, that wasn't the best decision' or 'Oh, that throw was a little off-target' and all that.
"That's where Pickett is really good. That's where I think it will be interesting. But is Pickett's overall arm explosiveness on Mitchell Trubisky's level? No, Trubisky's got a more explosive arm. Is he going to be able to run like Trubisky? Pickett's a good athlete, but no, he's not going to be able to run like Trubisky. Trubisky's a phenomenal athlete."
Indeed, Simms slotted in Pickett at No. 39 on his list, the only rookie to make the cut, but ended up placing Trubisky 12 spots higher at No. 27 overall.
"As far as the mental aspect, I mean, it's as impressive as it gets coming out of college the last few years. Mac Jones, Joe Burrow are the only two guys I can remember in recent history where I went, 'Oh, in the pocket, making decisions, going through reads, putting the ball in the right spot' — it's as good as anybody we've seen come out," Simms said on his May 16 show. "That's why some teams absolutely loved him in the draft. It's the high-end talent that I question, but still a starting quarterback here. I wish there was some more big-play ability and a little more aggressiveness, but as far as being ready to play in the NFL, I have no doubt this guy is going to be ready.
"It's a good arm. It's middle-of-the-road-NFL-starter arm. If you look at the quarterbacks we'll have around 15, 16, that's where Kenny Pickett is. It's not lasers. It's not [Aaron] Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen. that kind of guy. That's not what it is. But the ability to move in the pocket and do all that stuff is pretty damn amazing for his age. I think you saw a guy last year who just showed you, 'Hey, I've got the skills, now I've mastered the offense and I'm comfortable and I'm just going to dice you up that way.' And I think that's what Pittsburgh's looking for, is that kind of guy."
Simms acknowledged that Pickett has a leg up by playing in a pro-style offense at Pitt, so it's "easy to picture it translating to the next level" when you watch college film of him making his first read, then looking over the middle, then progressing to his third option, then buying time in the pocket so he can move and find an open target.
But he also back-tracked on his Pickett-over-Trubisky pick, in large part because of the climate in Pittsburgh. He views the Steelers as a team that's not far off from competing with the top of the AFC, and as an organization that won't feel "the pressure or the politics" to turn things over to the first-rounder. Beyond that, Simms is also just bullish on Trubisky as a player rather than a punching bag to take some heat off Pickett early in the season.
"I've been a defender of Mitchell Trubisky for a while. I have," Simms said on a later episode. "But at the same time, I'm not just going, 'Oh, it's all Matt Nagy.' There's flaws with Trubisky. There are things where it's, 'Oh, [crap], maybe I don't know, maybe he's — sorry — stupid or maybe he is just that inaccurate or has no clue.'
"But what happens? He goes to a new place with a new regime [in Buffalo], you start to hear from them, 'This guy's good, he's smart, he picked up our offense in a hurry.' ... Then you get to see it in the preseason and you go, 'Well, damn, this is a different guy' right away. There's mechanical things that were fixed there. He obviously was in a better spot mentally and he was in an offense that actually gave him a chance and gave him some thought process."
Basically, Simms is buying Trubisky's re-Bill-ding year in a big way. The conclusion he came to is that most of Trubisky's problems with the Bears were not his fault, evidenced by rumors he's heard, Trubisky's limited action last season and how Chicago continued to struggle with Andy Dalton, Nick Foles and Justin Fields at quarterback in 2021 with the same coaching staff.
"It makes me think a little differently of him," Simms said, "and, obviously, everybody else, too. ... They started going, 'He's [expletive] smart, he's got a strong arm, he's fast, he's 6-3, 225, what was the problem?' Oh, that's right, that [crap] offense in Chicago."
Lest you think Simms is anointing Trubisky as a Hall of Famer, he said he needs to see more consistency in his throwing mechanics and decision-making to complement his playmaking ability outside the pocket. Mobility certainly will be an upgrade from late-stage Ben Roethlisberger, but according to Simms, Trubisky's arm strength will be an improvement, too.
All indications are that the QB1 role is Trubisky's to lose, but it won't be long now before Pickett's charge begins in earnest.
"That's something they're going to have to figure out as training camp starts and rolls on, to whether he can handle that. I think he can," Simms said of the rookie starting right away against a grueling schedule. "It's just going to be, can he handle that to the ability that Mitchell Trubisky might be able to handle it, who's been there, done that and dealt with some of these situations?"
