Rishi Sunak is facing mounting calls to sack his home secretary, Suella Braverman, but choosing a replacement will not be easy.
Braverman has performed a useful role for the prime minister as a Brexiter and daughter of Indian immigrants to Britain who has made a hard-right case for his policy of “stopping the boats” of migrants crossing the channel.
However, her persistent defiance of No 10 and extreme rhetoric mean the odds on her departing as home secretary have been slashed.
Here are the leading candidates to replace her if she is moved on.
Oliver Dowden
The deputy prime minister and Cabinet Office minister is a close ally of Sunak, and a veteran of Conservative party headquarters and the coalition’s No 10 under David Cameron. He is regarded as a highly political operator, but not obsessed with his own leadership ambitions in the same way as is Braverman.
Dowden has demonstrated his willingness to venture into the territory of culture wars during his time as culture secretary and party chair, when he denounced last year what he claims is a “painful woke psychodrama” sweeping the west and sapping its confidence, arguing that people should not be “obsessing” over pronouns or “trying to decolonise” maths.
However, his appointment to home secretary without a wider reshuffle would leave all the great offices of state filled by men, appointed by a male prime minister.
Kemi Badenoch
Badenoch, the business secretary, is another anti-woke attack dog who may be able to win support from the right of the party in the same way as Braverman. However, she is not part of the same hard-right European Research Group tradition, and would be unlikely to go as rogue as the current home secretary has done.
A former leadership candidate and an ally of Michael Gove, she has strayed into the territory of commenting on home affairs in recent weeks, telling the Times that leaving the European convention on human rights was “definitely something that needs to be on the table”, while also saying there could be a debate that it needs updating.
Michael Gove
Gove, a twice-failed leadership candidate, has been in government near-constantly since 2010 but has never held a great office of state. He would be a weighty candidate given his experience, but Sunak may fear he could build his own power base from the Home Office.
Robert Jenrick
The immigration minister, a former cabinet minister, would be an obvious choice to step up into the role and is a confident media performer. He has previously held the cabinet role of housing secretary, before being sacked by Boris Johnson not long after admitting his decision to grant planning permission to a controversial development had been unlawful.
Claire Coutinho
Coutinho is a close ally of Sunak but is tipped to be his choice to replace Jeremy Hunt in a post-autumn statement reshuffle. She has more Treasury experience than in home affairs – but moving her to Braverman’s brief could make sense if Sunak wants to avoid an all-male top team without a wider reshuffle.
Mel Stride
Stride is another possibility for the job, as an ally of Sunak and an experienced pair of hands. After the autumn statement, Stride may have served his purpose at the Department for Work and Pensions in introducing new welfare restrictions and measures to persuade longer-term sick or unemployed people back to work.
Grant Shapps
Shapps has only recently filled a hole as defence secretary, so is not likely to be moved. But he did spend a memorable six days as home secretary after Braverman was forced to resign the first time, so could possibly campaign to return to the job.
