It is that time again for cricket fans, when they find themselves applying their mathematical and prediction skills to work out whether their favourite team will qualify for the next round of a world cup.
After 12 days and at least two rounds of group matches at the ICC T20 World Cup 2024, one team from each of the four groups has qualified for the Super Eight stage, four teams are already out of the race and the rest of the 12 teams will fight it out for the four remaining spots.
Some of these 12 sides stand half a step away from crossing over to the next stage of the tournament, while others have their fates hanging by a thread, a favourable weather forecast and their net run rates.
Al Jazeera breaks down the various scenarios for all four groups and the 20 teams at the end of the round of matches on June 12.
Group A qualification scenarios
All the teams in the tournament-opening group have now played three matches each. The group moves to Florida for its last run of matches, but plenty of rain is forecast in the Sunshine State, which could dampen the chances of some of the teams.
India: Qualified
Matches: 3
Points: 6
NRR: 1.137
Remaining fixture: Canada (June 15)
The 2007 champions have won all three games and have made it through.
USA: Favourites to qualify
Matches: 3
Points: 4
NRR: 0.127
Remaining fixture: Ireland (June 14)
The co-hosts set the tournament on fire with their thrilling win over Pakistan, which was preceded by the opening game win over neighbours Canada. Despite a hard-fought loss against India, all they need now is a win over a struggling Ireland to keep the American dream alive.
A washout in their last game, as well as Pakistan’s, will also see them go through on superior NRR.
Pakistan: Slim chance
Matches: 3
Points: 2
NRR: 0.191
Remaining fixture: Ireland (June 16)
It is an all-too-familiar territory for Pakistan fans. Once again, they find themselves hoping that the right team in green turns up on the day of the match and then praying for the other results and the weather to favour them. Babar Azam’s side had a typically horrible start to the tournament, losing to debutants USA in a super over finish and then losing, from a winning position, against India.
Now, they need to beat Ireland by a big margin and hope that the USA have a major slip-up in their last game. All of which is subject to the weather in Florida.
Canada: Slim chance
Matches: 3
Points: 2
NRR: -0.493
Remaining fixture: India (June 15)
The other North American side in this World Cup have not quite matched their neighbours, but have still managed to bag one win over ICC full-member team Ireland.
Should they manage to beat powerhouse India by a big margin, Canada would need Pakistan and the USA to lose their last respective games heavily.
Ireland: Mathematical chance
Matches: 2
Points: 0
NRR: -1.1712
Remaining fixture: Pakistan (June 16)
The Irish have had a disappointing tournament and their hopes of advancing are all but quashed. With rain forecast across their last two games, only a miraculous turnaround and the luck of the Irish can keep them alive in the tournament.
Group B qualification scenarios
The group with the two limited-overs champions has seen one side seal a spot and the other nearly seal a flight back home.
Australia: Qualified
Matches: 3
Points: 6
NRR: 3.58
Remaining fixture: Scotland (June 15)
The 50-over world champions have sailed through to the next round with three comprehensive wins.
Scotland: Favourites to qualify
Matches played: 3
Points: 5
NRR: 2.164
Remaining fixture: Australia (June 15)
The Scots could have won their opening fixture against England, but managed to get one point from it after a washout. Big wins over Namibia and Oman have kept them comfortably placed in the second spot. All they need to do is avoid a heavy defeat against Australia.
England: Slim chance
Matches: 2
Points: 1
NRR: -1.8
Remaining fixture: Oman (June 13), Namibia (June 15)
The holders bagged a point in their opening game against Scotland after a washout and then were blown away by Australia. Anything less than two massive wins will throw the defending champions out of the tournament.
Namibia: Out
Matches played: 3
Points: 2
NRR: -2.098
Remaining fixture: England (June 15)
The African nation managed to beat Oman for their first win of the tournament and while they will back themselves against a desperate England side, they will still not be able to qualify as four points at the end of their group will still leave them behind Scotland.
Oman: Out
Matches played: 3
Points: 0
NRR: -1.613
Remaining fixture: England (June 13)
Oman’s disappointing tournament will come to an end on June 13, regardless of the result of their last match.
Group C qualification scenarios
Co-hosts West Indies were always going to be favourites for the Super Eights and they are now through to the next round, while Afghanistan are favourites to follow them. New Zealand’s disappointing run is likely to see them go out.
West Indies: Qualified
Matches played: 3
Points: 6
NRR: 2.596
Remaining fixture: Afghanistan (June 17)
The two-time champions and co-hosts have qualified after three straight wins.
Afghanistan: Favourites to qualify
Matches played: 2
Points: 4
NRR: 5.225
Remaining fixtures: PNG (June 13), West Indies (June 17)
Afghanistan have shown strength in their bowling and batting to be counted as one of the outside favourites for the crown and are nearly through with four points and a healthy NRR. All they need is a point from their last two matches.
Uganda: Mathematical chance
Matches played: 3
Points: 2
NRR: -4.217
Remaining fixture: New Zealand (June 14)
The Cricket Cranes have carried their African fairy tale to the T20 World Cup. Their fans danced with joy as they beat PNG for their first win, but the men in yellow need a massive win over New Zealand and a slip-up from Afghanistan to have a mathematical chance of qualifying.
Papua New Guinea: Slim chance
Matches played: 2
Points: 0
NRR: -0.434
Remaining fixture: Afghanistan (June 13), New Zealand (June 17)
The Pacific islanders have had a disappointing tournament. And while their NRR is better than two other teams in the group, they must beat a strong Afghanistan side and former finalists New Zealand by healthy margins, and then need Afghanistan to lose their other match by a big margin.
New Zealand: Slim chance
Matches played: 2
Points: 0
NRR: -2.425
Remaining fixture: Uganda (June 14), PNG (June 17)
The 2021 finalists have looked out of sorts in the tournament. And while their remaining matches are against much weaker sides, New Zealand need Afghanistan to slip up dramatically to have a shot at the Super Eights.
Group D qualification scenarios
The so-called group of death has not entirely lived up to its billing as one team has progressed unscathed and two of the other four are left to fight it out among themselves.
South Africa: Qualified
Points: 6
NRR: 0.603
Remaining fixture: Nepal (June 14)
Despite early stutters in their three games in New York, the Proteas have managed to pass the test of the tricky pitch and have gone through.
Bangladesh: Favourites to qualify
Matches played: 2
Points: 2
NRR: 0.075
Remaining fixture: Netherlands (June 13), Nepal (June 16)
Bangladesh’s pretournament form did not make them favourites to qualify from this group, but should they beat their next two opponents, the Bengal Tigers will find themselves in the Super Eights.
One win, one loss, and a win for the Netherlands will bring the equation down to NRR.
Netherlands: Favourites to qualify
Matches played: 2
Points: 2
NRR: 0.024
Remaining fixtures: Bangladesh (June 13), Sri Lanka (June 16)
The Dutch have beaten the lowest-ranked team in the group, Nepal, but those two points could be crucial in deciding their fate.
A win over Bangladesh will not be enough to qualify but it can give them an edge going into the last round of matches.
Nepal: Slim chance
Matches played: 2
Points: 1
NRR: -0.0539
Remaining fixtures: South Africa (June 14), Bangladesh (June 16)
If Super Eight qualification was handed out on the basis of passion and spirit, Nepal would have been among the first teams to qualify. The Rhinos and their fans have brought abundant joy and smiles to the tournament, but face two tough opponents in their last two games.
However, two improbable wins could still see them through.
Sri Lanka: Out
Matches played: 3
Points: 1
NRR: -0.777
Remaining fixture: Netherlands (June 16)
Sri Lanka’s disappointing show at world cups continues and the 2014 champions find themselves out of contention yet again.
