The Padres offense could suddenly become what it was expected to be.
Everyone could start hitting. Even if just a few guys started hitting and continued doing so at the same time for a while, that would be an improvement.
But it probably won't happen.
That doesn't mean the Padres are doomed to be done playing by the end of the weekend.
"Teams in the past who have had the success they wanted in the postseason, it's kind of a cliche statement, but it's good starting pitching, really good defense, timely hitting," second baseman Jake Cronenworth said. "…The hits that they needed came in big spots — had a guy on third base with nobody out or one out, they got that guy in. Obviously, some players' incredible performances (help). But I think it comes back down to the biggest thing is playing baseball. If you look at how we won games and played earlier in the year, if we can execute that in postseason that will put us in a good spot."
That's all.
The Padres begin their National League wild-card series Friday against the Mets and a rotation that includes two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, who will start Game 1. One report has deGrom being held until a possible Game 3. Chris Bassitt would presumably start Game 2.
In an injury-delayed season, deGrom had a 3.08 ERA in 11 starts, though he allowed 14 runs in 21 innings over his past four starts. Scherzer had a 2.29 ERA in 23 starts, which included his giving up four runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Braves on Saturday. Bassitt finished with a 3.42 ERA.
How the Padres could win this best-of-three series will likely look a lot more like the two of three they took from the Mets in July in New York than the two of three they took from the Mets in June at Petco Park.
The Padres did not face deGrom in the regular season and did not face Scherzer in June when they won the final two games by scores of 7-0 and 13-2.
In the first series following the All-Star break, the Padres beat Scherzer and Bassitt by simply doing enough. Eric Hosmer, since traded to Boston, homered off Scherzer, who allowed two runs on five hits in six innings, and Trent Grisham also homered in a 4-1 victory in the opener. Manny Machado's two-run homer in the sixth inning provided all the runs in the Padres' 2-0 victory in the second game. Carlos Carrasco started the finale, won 8-5 by the Mets.
Among the mysterious aspects of the Padres offense this season was its frequent struggles against inexperienced pitchers they had not previously faced. Conversely, they were better than average against the major leagues' best pitchers. The Padres played 25 games started by opposing qualifying pitchers who finished the season with a sub-3.00 ERA. Those pitchers combined for a 3.09 ERA in those starts.
"We feel our pitchers will keep us there," Padres manager Bob Melvin said. "At least on paper, it looks like it will be some hard-fought, low-scoring games to be begin with."
The early season version of the Padres to which Cronenworth alluded was a group suited for such a challenge. In the season's first two months the Padres were among the major league leaders in sacrifice flies and sacrifice bunts and going first to third and, for a time, hitting with runners in scoring position.
That they have not been that team all that often the past three-plus months is what made them have to scramble for a playoff spot in the season's final weeks and would seem to make a deep run in the playoffs unlikely barring a return to that caliber of play.
The team that was five games under .500 from June 23 through Sept. 15 had some serious holes offensively, including that they endured long stretches with a batting average between .200 and .220 with runners in scoring position.
The Padres can't be written off as a potential postseason force for the same reason they could never be written off as a postseason contender.
"It all starts with pitching — if you have good starting pitching, which we have," President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller said.
True enough.
Yu Darvish, who will start Game 1, won the National League Player of the Month award for September after posting a 1.85 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in six starts. Presumptive Game 2 starter Blake Snell has allowed two runs in his past four starts (25 innings). Joe Musgrove, the presumptive Sunday starter should that game be necessary, has allowed one run in his past four starts (22 innings).
There were a troubling number of times the Padres could not align their starter giving them a chance to win with their offense doing enough to capitalize on that chance. They lost 24 of the 84 games in which their starting pitcher went at least six innings and allowed three or fewer earned runs.
The Padres finished the season ranked 13th among MLB's 30 teams in runs scored and 15th in OPS. No team since the 2010 Giants won the World Series after a season in which it was ranked that low in either category.
The Giants had the major leagues' most effective pitching staff but were just better than woeful on offense that year.
They did not have a player with 30 home runs or more than 86 RBIs. Not one of their players who was with the team the entire season hit .300. They were 17th in the major leagues in runs scored and OPS. Their 55 stolen bases were tied for the fewest, and no team grounded into more double plays.
Their statistics relative to other teams were far worse than the Padres' 2022 stats.
The Giants also did not have Machado, who carried the Padres through portions of the season and finished with an .897 OPS. They did not have Juan Soto, who had a .927 OPS during the Nationals' 2019 World Series title run, and even in a down '22 had an .853 OPS.
The pair could vault their stardom to another level with big Octobers.
But if the Padres are going to go deep in the postseason, they will likely have some similarities to that '10 Giants team with less-heralded players making their mark. Cody Ross, a waiver pickup who hit .269 in the regular season, had a 1.076 OPS as he hit five homers and five doubles in the playoffs. Edgar Renteria, who hit three home runs in 243 at-bats in the regular season, hit .412 with a 1.209 OPS and drove in six runs in the World Series, including a solo homer and a two-run single in a Game 2 victory.
Yes, Matt Cain did not allow an earned run in three postseason starts, and Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner were outstanding, and closer Brian Wilson did not allow a run in 11 2/3 innings and in the World Series Giants pitchers had a 2.45 ERA.
But someone had to score, too.
"If the pitching is great, you just need to (score) a couple runs and you're gonna be fine to go all the way," Soto said. "But definitely, the offense has to step up and be part of it. I think we have everything that we need to go all the way and beat everybody else."
