There are 10 weeks of regular season football left to play and no team is out of the mix … mathematically, at least.
The race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC doesn’t look like it’ll be including the New England Patriots or Las Vegas Raiders anytime soon, though. In all likelihood, that competition is a four-horse race between the division leaders all deadlocked at 6-2.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, and Baltimore Ravens for the conference’s best record through eight weeks. The tiebreakers float the Chiefs to the top of the mix, but it’s still too early for most of those — outside of Kansas City’s Week 3 win against the Jaguars — to matter.
There’s also a Week 9 matchup between the Chiefs and Dolphins in Germany, a Sunday night game in Week 15 between the Jaguars and Ravens, and a New Year’s Eve meeting in Week 16 between the Ravens and Dolphins that all loom large.
With nine games left for each team, which has the best shot at coming out on top? Here’s how things stack up heading into the last two months of the season (odds to win the AFC Championship via BetMGM):
Kansas City Chiefs (+180)
Remaining schedule:
- vs. Dolphins [Germany]
- BYE
- vs. Eagles [MNF]
- at Raiders
- at Packers [SNF]
- vs. Bills
- at Patriots [MNF]
- vs. Raiders
- vs. Bengals
- at Chargers
The Chiefs’ next two games will say a lot about their chances at landing the No. 1 seed. A win against the Dolphins (Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite) would give them a head-to-head tiebreaker over two of the three division leaders, although the 7-1 Eagles could then knock Kansas City back down a peg.
But after that, there’s a pretty cushy schedule ahead for the Chiefs. Two games against the rudderless Raiders, and primetime games against the two-win Patriots and Packers don’t look too difficult.
The Chiefs have finished with the AFC’s best record, or at least tied for it, in each of the last three seasons. Even if Kansas City’s offense has looked a little shaky, it’s not surprising they’re the favorite be on top again.
Miami Dolphins (+300)
Remaining schedule:
- at Chiefs [Germany]
- BYE
- vs. Raiders
- at Jets
- at Commanders
- vs. Titans [MNF]
- vs. Jets
- vs. Cowboys
- at Ravens
- vs. Bills
The Jaguars should probably be hoping to see the Chiefs lose to the Dolphins in Frankfurt on Sunday morning considering the head-to-head tiebreaker is already in Kansas City’s favor.
After that tough matchup in Week 9, the Dolphins face a pretty easy stretch before a three-game gauntlet against the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills to end the year.
Baltimore Ravens (+450)
Remaining schedule:
- vs. Seahawks
- vs. Browns
- vs. Bengals [TNF]
- at Chargers [SNF]
- BYE
- vs. Rams
- at Jaguars [SNF]
- at 49ers [MNF]
- vs. Dolphins
- vs. Steelers
Three straight games at home and a late bye week give the Ravens a good chance to jump out in front. What’ll really matter is how they do in December, though.
There’s two games against AFC division leaders with a Monday night road game in San Francisco sandwiched in the middle. That three-week stretch will determine if Baltimore is in the mix.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+700)
Remaining schedule:
- vs. 49ers
- vs. Titans
- at Texans
- vs. Bengals [MNF]
- at Browns
- vs. Ravens [SNF]
- at Buccaneers
- vs. Panthers
- at Titans
Mathematically, the Jaguars’ remaining schedule is the easiest of the four division leaders. Five of their opponents have losing records, including the last three teams on the schedule.
The toughest stretch will be three games against AFC North opponents to begin December, including two primetime games.
Oddsmakers don’t love the Jaguars’ chances, which makes sense given the loss to the Chiefs and both of their losses coming in games vs. AFC opponents. Tiebreakers don’t look great for Jacksonville. Continuing to win can fix that, though.
Buffalo Bills (+1400)
Remaining schedule:
- at Bengals [SNF]
- vs. Broncos [MNF]
- vs. Jets
- at Eagles
- BYE
- at Chiefs
- vs. Cowboys
- at Chargers [Saturday]
- vs. Patriots
- at Dolphins
The Bills aren’t a six-win team, but they’re the only five-win one so let’s include them for good measure — especially when they already have a win against the Dolphins in the bag and a chance to finish the season sweep later this season.
It’d be great for Jacksonville if Buffalo made up ground on Miami, because the Jaguars already have a win against the Bills.
But the Bills have their hands full with one of the toughest schedules in the NFL left to play.
