These are the seats being contested on Thursday:
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Boris Johnson’s former seat, this area on the fringes of west London should be the easiest for Labour to take from the Conservatives. It has the smallest Tory majority – about 7,200 votes in 2019 – and the former prime minister has been totally absent from the contest, suggesting he is not seen as an electoral asset. The only engagement he is said to have had is a 30-second phone call with the Tory candidate, Steve Tuckwell, a local councillor and business consultant. Labour’s Danny Beales is a charity worker and was born and raised here. However, critics have accused him of being parachuted in by pointing to the fact he is a councillor in Camden, several miles away.
It’s a heavily car-reliant area, sitting just within London’s orbital M25, and the London mayor’s plans to expand the ultra-low emissions zone to reduce air pollution have become a central feature of the contest. Given the cost of living is such a pressing concern, the fee some drivers will incur because of Sadiq Khan’s decision has been a prominent part of Tory attacks. Such moves, Conservative activists hope, will help stem apathy among their traditional voters and give them a fighting chance of holding on.
The seat has voted Tory stretching back to the 1970s, under its old incarnation and current boundaries. It voted 52.7% leave in the EU referendum, and is home to a significant number of retired people, though its demographics have changed in recent years, with an influx of younger families.
Somerton and Frome
While it is a solid Conservative seat with a 19,000 majority at the last election, this quaint pocket of Somerset was held by the Liberal Democrats between 1997 and 2015. Ever since allegations about the outgoing Tory MP, David Warburton, emerged 15 months ago – which he denies – the Lib Dems have ploughed time and resources into preparing for the moment the race officially began. That means that despite the seemingly huge mountain to climb, it is strangely the seat that bookies say is the most likely to flip. Much of the area is rural – and the Lib Dems have sought to replicate the success they managed last year in managing to clinch a seismic victory in Tiverton and Honiton.
Tactical voting between those on the left, combined with apathy among habitual Tories, has led to Labour writing off much involvement in the fight and instead focusing their energies elsewhere. Sarah Dyke, the Lib Dem candidate, says she has been treated like the new MP for some time, given complaints about Warbuton’s absence. Faye Purbrick, the Conservative candidate, is a councillor and similarly paints herself as someone who can hit the ground running. She has pointed to visits from a string of ministers, such as Michael Gove and Grant Shapps, as evidence the Tories are still fighting to retain the seat.
Selby and Ainsty
A picturesque collection of towns and villages sprawling across North Yorkshire, this constituency is uncomfortably close to Rishi Sunak’s own of Richmond. The byelection was triggered by Nigel Adams, a staunch ally of Johnson, when he was passed over for a peerage, and as such, some residents are frustrated at being left in the lurch by what they say is his “petty” resignation from parliament.
Overturning the Tories’ majority of 20,000 votes would be a huge coup for Labour – and would show they could threaten the Tories not just in metropolitan seats and their traditional former industrial heartlands, but in rural areas, too. It is a very high bar to clear, however. Labour would need a swing of about 18% to pull off a win over the Conservative candidate, Claire Holmes. Labour’s candidate, Keir Mather, would become the “baby of the house” by being the youngest MP, if elected.
The future of the local Drax power station and concerns about the affordability and development of housing in the area are issues local people raised during the campaign. Adams’s departure and broader discontent with Sunak, as well as frustration at the cost of living and access to healthcare, have also featured. Selby voted for Brexit by 59.2%, and the wider constituency is littered with church spires and historic battle sites. Under its reconfigured boundaries that will take effect at the next general election, the seat is more likely to swing towards Labour.
