Rishi Sunak must commit to levelling up England’s struggling seaside towns, or risk a political “tidal wave” at the next general election, a Conservative thinktank has warned.
In a report entitled Troubled Waters, the thinktank Onward shows that communities set within 5km of England’s coast are poorer, sicker and more crime-ridden than their inland neighbours – and calls for a £500m regeneration package.
Grim statistics highlighted in the report include the fact that early, preventable deaths are 15% more likely in coastal areas than inland, crime rates are 12% higher and average disposable incomes £2,800 lower.
Seaside areas voted heavily for Brexit in 2016, with 83% of coastal seats voting leave, compared with 66% inland. These constituencies also heavily backed Boris Johnson’s “get Brexit done” message at the 2019 general election.
The report points out that coastal areas have tended to swing convincingly behind the winning party in recent polls – and could be poised to turn against the Tories.
“Where the coast goes, England follows. For nearly four decades, seaside towns and cities have backed the eventual election winners,” said the report’s author, Jenevieve Treadwell.
“Onward’s research exposes the growing gap between declining coastal communities and the rest of England. Unless the government fully embraces coastal areas in its levelling up agenda, they risk a tidal wave against them at the next election”.
Shadow levelling up secretary Angela Rayner blamed the plight of coastal areas highlighted in the report, on, “thirteen years of neglect and mismanagement by the Tories”.
“Our plan to make Britain a clean energy superpower will see a clean energy jobs boom in coastal communities and provide building blocks for a more sustainable future,” she added.
Onward highlights three underlying factors behind coastal deprivation: the decline of traditional industries such as fishing and shipbuilding, the seasonality of local economies, and the older populations in these areas.
“The fate of industrial communities along the coast mirrors those in manufacturing-intensive towns inland facing pressures from privatisations and globalisation,” the report says.
Tourism in traditional English seaside destinations has also faced long-term decline since affordable air travel arrived in the 1980s.
While these are longstanding trends, the gap between coastal areas and the rest of England has continued to widen in recent years – with inland economies growing more rapidly since the 2008 financial crisis.
Many seaside areas have struggled to attract investment over that period, and have often been left heavily reliant on seasonal tourism – which tends to have a relatively low-paid workforce.
By analysing detailed income data, Onward shows the stark differences that emerge, even over short distances. In Great Yarmouth, on the east coast, the average income is £23,600 a year, but just over 10km inland it jumps to £33,800.
The average worker in Workington, on the Cumbrian coast, earns £25,000; but less than 10km inland at Cockermouth the average is £34,200.
Coastal towns also have “some of the worst health outcomes in the country,” the report points out – as highlighted by England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, in his annual report two years ago.
Blackpool, in Lancashire, is what the report calls “an extreme example of coastal health challenges”, with the rate of preventable deaths for under 75-year-olds 88% higher than the average across England.
Not surprisingly, coastal neighbourhoods also tend to have more claimants of unemployment and other benefits than inland areas, because of “higher rates of poor, sick and elderly people”, the report says.
Other challenges include the fact that crime and antisocial behaviour tends to spike in seaside towns during the summer, the report shows – potentially overwhelming the local police force.
In Brighton, for example, nearly half of neighbourhoods have crime rates above the regional average. In the area surrounding the city’s Churchill shopping centre, there were more crimes than residents in 2021.
Even in coastal areas where deprivation is less apparent, Onward suggests high rates of second home ownership can lead to a lack of affordable housing for local people, with knock-on effects for businesses looking for staff.
The thinktank calls for the government to adopt a comprehensive package of policies to regenerate coastal areas. These include creating a coastal economy transformation programme worth up to £500m.
Onward suggests this could be modelled on the Biden administration’s Recompete Pilot in the US, which is investing in economically deprived areas. It suggests giving local bodies powers over infrastructure, planning and skills as part of the scheme.
Other policies the thinktank calls for include extra funding for coastal police forces to help them cope with the summer surge in crime and higher taxes on second homes left standing empty for long periods.
A spokesperson for the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said: “We are spreading opportunity and prosperity across the UK as part of our ambitious long-term levelling-up programme.
“Since 2012 we have invested over £229m through the coastal communities fund to run 359 projects throughout the UK’s rural and coastal communities helping to create jobs and boost businesses.
“We have also allocated around £1bn from the levelling-up fund to 50 projects in coastal communities.”
