Wales' Six Nations title defence finally begins in Dublin on Saturday afternoon.
But where is Saturday’s Six Nations opener against Ireland likely to be won and lost?
Rugby correspondent Simon Thomas casts an analytical eye over what lies in store at Dublin’s Aviva Stadium.
Defence
Given the attack-minded nature of the team Wayne Pivac has selected, it might seem a bit negative to start with defence.
But unless Wales manage to front up in that area, it is going to be a very long day in the Dublin office.
You know what’s coming from Ireland.
You saw it in the way they recorded that famous 29-20 victory over New Zealand in November.
It was triumph based on relentless and remorseless ball-carrying as they poured forward in wave after green wave until the All Blacks eventually cracked.
The stats from that game are truly enlightening and tell a clear story.
Ireland took the ball up 140 times, compared to 74 by the Kiwis, and made 782 metres against 479 by their guests.
When you are going forward to that extent and delivering that kind of yardage, there is only likely to be one outcome and so it proved.
Few, if any, teams in world rugby possess the ball-carrying clout the Irish do.
It’s not just the main men in the back row, like Caelan Doris and Jack Conan, either. It’s also the hard yard merchants in the front five, the likes of James Ryan, Tadhg Furlong and Andrew Porter.
Then you’ve got the midfield battering ram in Bundee Aki and the full-back returner in Hugo Keenan, who has rapidly become one of the first names on the team sheet.
The problem is there are just so many of them and they take it in turns to come at you. As above, relenting.
Knowing it’s coming is one thing, but stopping it is another matter altogether.
Last year, Pivac’s strategy was to recall one of the all-time great Welsh defenders, Dan Lydiate, for his first cap since 2018.
In the end, the Ospreys blindside only lasted 13 minutes after suffering knee ligament damage.
But, in that time, he had set the tone for the afternoon, putting in couple of shuddering hits to halt Irishmen in their tracks and knock them backwards.
When Lydiate departed, Josh Navidi came on to take up the defensive mantle as Wales won 21-16 to lay the foundation stone for the 2021 Six Nations title triumph.
Yet there is no Navidi and no Lydiate this time around, while the similarly destructive Ross Moriarty is restricted to a bench berth having only had one outing since his shoulder was wrecked against New Zealand last October.
Injury has also denied Pivac the services of the hugely experienced Taulupe Faletau and Justin Tipuric: two serial tacklers and men who were key 12 months ago.
So you are left with a starting back row of Ellis Jenkins, Aaron Wainwright and Taine Basham. That offers a huge amount in terms of mobility, athleticism, footwork, handling ability and presence over the ball.
But clearly it is not the biggest or most physical of breakaway units and they will have to have the defensive game of their lives up against Doris and Co.
They will also need support from the rest the pack as it really will have to be a collective effort in the close-quarter exchanges.
Then in the wider channels, there will be a big focus on how Josh Adams gets on in his new role at outside centre.
He is one of the more secure wings in the business, but now he is faced with a challenge on another level again, as 13 is arguably the pivotal defensive position on the pitch in terms of organisation and decision-making.
It takes time to master and Adams is a real rookie in the role, having had precious little exposure there in the club game.
Pivac could have gone for the solidity and security of Jonathan Davies, who knows the job inside out. But he has been bold and plumped for what Adams can bring in attack, hoping it will prove as successful as George North's move from the wing did.
It remains to be seen how he will cope defensively against Garry Ringrose and Aki, while that really goes for the Welsh team as a whole as they prepare themselves for an incessant Irish invasion.
Set-pieces
Of course, the best way to survive defensively against a team with so many potent ball-carriers is to deny them the ball.
That brings us round to the set-pieces.
It was a fluctuating tale there for Wales during the autumn.
At the lineout, they creaked badly in the opener against New Zealand, but then sorted things out, with Ryan Elias consistently hitting his targets as he emerged as one of the big pluses of the campaign, stepping into the shoes of Ken Owens.
That’s encouraging because it was a key area of strength in the march to the title last season, providing the platform for the majority of the team’s tries, either via maul drives or back-line strikes.
So they will be hoping it functions smoothly again with caller Adam Beard joined by Will Rowlands and Wainwright as the prime targets.
But they will also be aware that the one game where it didn’t work in the last Six Nations was against Ireland and they will know the likes of James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne and Jack Conan will be contesting hard in the air, with Peter O’Mahony and Ryan Baird set to do the same when they arrive off the bench.
So there will be little margin for error.
As for the scrum, well you have to say that is an area of concern based on how it went in the autumn and the men they are now up against.
It wasn’t much fun for Wales in the tight during October and November, particularly versus South Africa.
They were over-ruled in pretty much every scrum by the ‘Boks and that was the main reason why an otherwise commendable display failed to deliver a victory.
Now, admittedly, the world champions are the best in the business in that department with a back-up front row which is arguably even better than the starting one.
But when it comes to scrummaging, Ireland aren’t too far behind.
They have the best tighthead in the game today in Tadhg Furlong, while Andrew Porter has been a revelation since switching to the loosehead, with Cian Healy on hand to provide more than 100 caps of experience as a finisher.
So there is a mighty test lying ahead for Wales.
A huge amount rests on the seasoned shoulders of starting props Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis, with the hope being that Jones can reproduce the excellent form which made him a Lions Test loosehead last summer now that he is over the shoulder and back injuries which hampered his preparation for the autumn campaign.
He will certainly need to be at his best to cope with another man from farming stock in the sizeable shape of Wexford ploughing machine Furlong.
All in all, then, it's a big set-piece challenge for Wales and they have to step up there to deny Ireland the kind of territory (70 per cent) and possession (59 per cent) they enjoyed against New Zealand, otherwise there will only be one outcome.
Attack
You certainly couldn’t accuse Pivac and Stephen Jones of not going for it when it comes to team selection.
They have really nailed their attacking colours to the mast amid the boldest of formations.
The main talking point has, of course, been the selection of Josh Adams at outside centre.
Now, a fair few people have argued if you have one of the best wingers in the world at your disposal it might be an idea to play him, you know, on the wing!
But the Wales management have clearly been keen to go down this route for some time now.
Let’s not forget, Adams was due to wear 13 against Fiji in November before a late fitness issue ruled him out.
He may well have donned that jersey this weekend even if the hamstrung Willis Halaholo had been available, with his Cardiff colleague potentially starting alongside him, ahead of Nick Tompkins.
The Adams move seems to have two key factors behind it.
For one thing, there’s the way in which converting George North from a wing proved so successful last season, with the attacking thrust he delivered in midfield.
It also enables you to get all your best outside backs in the starting XV at once.
Switching Adams opens the way for Johnny McNicholl to come into the back three and Stephen Jones has a lot of time for the former Crusaders winger.
He certainly had a fine autumn, barely putting a foot wrong. As well as being a quality finisher, he also has the ability to slot in as a kind of second playmaker in broken play.
His decision-making in those situations is generally spot on and you can see him being handed something of a free, roving role, bringing his rugby intelligence to fore.
With Adams and McNicholl joined by Louis Rees-Zammit and Liam Williams, there really is some strike-running potency among the outside Welsh backs.
That, then, is supplemented by an attack-minded breakaway unit, with two opensides on duty in Taine Basham and Ellis Jenkins, alongside Aaron Wainwright’s striding dynamism off the base.
There certainly won’t be a lack of forward support runners to pop up on the shoulders of any line-breaking backs.
So if Wales can get a decent supply of ball, it should be entertaining fare.
They don’t have a huge amount of carrying clout up front, so they have to look to play it a different way.
Looking for contact is unlikely to bring them much joy.
So they have to look for space, utilising the footwork of Basham and Tomos Williams, while playing with real tempo, delivering quick ruck ball for the gas merchants out wide.
It will be about the rapier rather than the bludgeon. That’s the theory anyway.
The breakdown
When it comes to the vital supply of possession, the breakdown is another key area, along with the set-piece.
Having Ellis Jenkins on board will certainly add to Wales’ presence over the ball, with Wyn Jones and bench duo Dillon Lewis and Dewi Lake also able to contribute significantly in that department, contesting hard in a bid to slow and steal.
Jenkins will look to pick his moments and he is one of the best in the business in choosing the right ruck to attack.
He will be absolutely crucial in terms of stemming the Irish tide.
When Wales are in possession, it’s then all down to the clear-out to provide that much-needed rapid ball.
That is where they do miss Josh Navidi as he is so good in that area.
In his absence, it will have to be a collective effort with the first men in needing to be bang on the money in legally removing green-clad bodies.
Above all, they have to negate the influence of Tadhg Beirne.
His work over the ball is quite extraordinary for a lock and if you fail to deal with him, he can destroy you at the breakdown.
And even if you do manage to handle him, you’ve still got the likes of Caelan Doris, Andrew Porter, Josh van der Flier and Garry Ringrose to contend with, plus that fella O’Mahony off the bench.
So, as with the other areas, all you can really say is 'best of luck, Wales'.
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