In a season of streaks, Joey Barton and Bristol Rovers hope another dramatic upturn in form is on the horizon after a chastening start to 2023 for the Gas.
Rovers have been beaten in five of their past six League One games, with Saturday's demoralising 2-1 defeat to Burton Albion dropping them to 15th in the League One table. As a result, optimism of a push towards the top six in the run-in has faded and gone and targets have been recalibrated – homing in on the original goal of survival and consolidation in the first season back in the third tier.
In that context, the Gas remain well placed despite their recent dreadful form, with a superb run in the lead-up to Christmas helping to amass a healthy points tally which put Barton and his squad ahead of schedule, particularly off the back of a disappointing start to the campaign.
But the credit in the bank is gradually decreasing and Barton is fully aware that Rovers need to "get their act together" to avoid any needless nerves going into the final games.
With 14 rounds of fixtures remaining for the Gas, they are on the fringes of the relegation picture and a couple of good results in quick succession will go a long way to securing their place in the division for next season, but in their current form there are no forgone conclusions and plenty of hard work remains to be done for the Gas.
FiveThirtyEight's predictive model, which takes into account form data and squad values, gives the Gas an 89 per cent chance of avoiding relegation, although that has dipped from 97 per cent after the win over Cheltenham Town on New Year's Day.
Here is how the League One table is predicted to look at the end of the season...
- Sheffield Wednesday - 98 (C)
- Plymouth Argyle - 94 (P)
- Ipswich Town - 85
- Derby County - 85
- Bolton Wanderers - 84
- Barnsley - 84
- Wycombe Wanderers -82
- Peterborough United - 70
- Portsmouth - 66
- Shrewsbury Town - 65
- Charlton Athletic - 62
- Lincoln City - 61
- Fleetwood Town - 58
- Port Vale - 56
- Exeter City - 55
- Oxford United - 54
- Bristol Rovers - 51
- Burton Albion - 49
- Cheltenham Town 49
- MK Dons - 46
- Accrington Stanley- 45 (R)
- Cambridge United - 43 (R)
- Morecambe - 42 (R)
- Forest Green Rovers - 32 (R)
As for the bookmakers, they believe the Gas are also very much on the fringes of the dogfight, although the odds of the Gas slipping into the bottom four have shortened significantly in recent weeks. Here is the relegation market offered by SkyBet...
- Forest Green Rovers - 1/33
- Morecambe - 1/3
- Cambridge United - 8/13
- Accrington Stanley - 4/7
- MK Dons - 6/5
- Cheltenham Town - 2/1
- Burton Albion - 10/3
- Bristol Rovers - 10/1
- Fleetwood Town - 12/1
- Oxford United - 16/1
In the past three completed seasons, 40, 48 and 50 points have been required to avoid relegation in League One.
Next up for Rovers is a trip to Oxford United on Saturday, with the teams sharing the spot at the bottom of the form table. A home clash with promotion-chasing Barnsley follows before they face rock-bottom Forest Green Rovers at The New Lawn on March 11.
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