Wheat is a crucial ingredient in bread and many foods consumed daily. A January 7 Barchart article on the grain and oilseed markets highlighted the 5.57% Q4 decline and 12.18% decrease in nearby CME soft red winter wheat prices in 2024. The CME wheat futures edged 1.45% higher in January 2025, settling at $5.5950 per bushel on the nearby March futures contract. Wheat was higher in February as the 2025 crop year approaches.
Wheat prices edge higher
CBOT soft red winter wheat futures reached a $5.26 per bushel low on January 10, 2025.
The daily chart illustrates the bullish pattern of higher lows and high highs since mid-January. Nearby March CBOT wheat futures rose 14.6%, from $5.26 to the $6.0275 high on February 14.
Wheat prices plunged after reaching a record high at over double the current price level in March 2022, fueled by supply fears caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the CBOT nearby wheat futures price settled into a mainly $5 to $6 trading range throughout the second half of 2024, where it remains in early 2025.
The wheat market is entering the 2025 crop year. While the war in Ukraine continues, the most significant factor for the path of least resistance of prices will be the weather conditions in the leading growing regions during the planting and growing season.
WASDE- Supplies are rising
The February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report told the wheat market that there is plenty of wheat to meet the global requirements.
As the text highlights, U.S. and global stock levels have declined, which is bullish for prices. However, future wheat supplies will depend on the 2025 crop, a function of Mother Nature’s cooperation.
The end of the Ukraine war could be on the horizon
Negotiations between Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow are accelerating, which could mean an end to the war in Ukraine after three years of brutal fighting. The war initially ignited a rally in the wheat futures market that sent prices to all-time highs.
Russia and Ukraine are among the top ten wheat-producing countries, together producing over 104 million tons of wheat. While China, the E.U., and India produce more wheat, Russia and Ukraine are critical suppliers. An end to the war would remove supply fears from the wheat market, but they have abated over the past years. Meanwhile, volatile weather conditions over the coming months are the most significant factor for prices in 2025.
Levels to watch in the CME wheat futures
Technically, wheat prices are closer to lows than highs going into the 2025 crop year.
The quarterly continuous contract chart shows technical support is at the 2024 $5.1425 low and the 2016 $3.8675 low. Resistance is at the 2024 $7.20 high. A move above $7.20 would end the bearish trend since the 2022 high.
An end to the Ukraine war and favorable weather conditions supporting a bumper wheat crop would likely send wheat prices lower toward the $4 per bushel level. However, any weather surprises could ignite another rally that challenges the 2024 high.
On the demand side, the world’s population continues to rise, standing at over 8.1 billion in February 2025. Each year, more people require more wheat, which is a critical food ingredient. Therefore, producers must increase output to meet the rising global demand, which puts upward pressure on prices over time.
WEAT is the wheat ETF
Given the uncertainty of weather conditions and the current price level, the odds favor a recovery in wheat prices as the market moves into the 2025 crop year.
The most direct route for a risk position in the CBOT soft red winter wheat market is the futures and futures options on the CME’s CBOT division. The Teucrium Wheat ETF product (WEAT) is a liquid ETF with nearly $126 million in assets under management. WEAT trades an average of over 1.1 million shares daily and charges a 0.22% management fee. WEAT owns a portfolio of three actively traded CBOT wheat futures contracts, excluding the nearby contract, to minimize roll risks.
The most recent rally in the March CBOT wheat futures took the price 14.6% higher from mid-January through mid-February.
The daily WEAT ETF chart shows a 14.4% rise from $4.64 to $5.31 per share over the same period. The deferred CBOT wheat futures kept pace with the March contract, lifting the ETF.
Meanwhile, the CBOT wheat forward curve highlights progressively higher prices from March 2025 through May 2026, indicating bullish sentiment in the wheat market, with no nearby supply concerns. Supply issues tend to cause nearby prices to move to higher levels than deferred prices.
Wheat futures are at a level where risk-reward dynamics favor higher prices, given the levels seen over the past years. Mother Nature will ultimately determine if wheat prices move higher or lower over the coming months.
