American voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday, 5 November 2024, to select their next president in a race between Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump. However, the exact timing of when we'll know the final result may be anything but immediate. Given the narrow polling margins and contentious battleground states, experts predict a prolonged wait, echoing the delays seen in previous elections.
In 2020, it took four days to project Joe Biden as the winner. This year, with fewer mail-in ballots and faster processing in some states, there is hope for a quicker call, but a tight race and potential legal challenges may delay the announcement once again. According to New York Magazine, the race is expected to be so close that scenarios on Election Night may vary significantly based on poll results in key states.
Key States and Closing Times
Election Night will likely centre around seven critical battleground states where both Harris and Trump have focused their campaigns: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Here's a quick breakdown of the key states and when polls close, according to BBC News:
- Georgia - 7 p.m. ET: In 2020, Georgia's razor-thin margin made it one of the last states to be called. However, if the margin is wider this year, we may know the outcome on Election Night.
- North Carolina - 7:30 p.m. ET: Known for its efficient counting process, North Carolina may provide a prompt call unless the margin is extremely close.
- Pennsylvania - 8 p.m. ET: This state's results could be delayed as mail ballots cannot be processed until Election Day.
- Michigan - Polls close at 8 p.m. ET in some parts but remain open until 9 p.m. ET in the Upper Peninsula. Processing changes may speed up the count, but a close margin could prolong the outcome.
- Wisconsin - 9 p.m. ET: Wisconsin is another state where small margins have delayed calls in recent elections.
- Arizona - 9 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local time): Arizona's reliance on mail ballots could delay final results for up to ten days if the margin is slim.
- Nevada - 10 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local time): Known for its high mail-in voting rates, Nevada could also face delays, especially if ballots postmarked by Election Day arrive later.
Potential Scenarios for Election Night
With close polling in many battleground states, several scenarios could unfold on Election Night:
- Clear Winner Announced on Election Night: If one candidate takes a substantial lead across the battleground states, major news networks may call the race in the early hours of 6 November. This scenario would indicate a significant victory margin, allowing the losing candidate to concede.
- The "Red Mirage" and Delayed Results: Some states, especially those processing Election Day ballots first, may initially show a lead for Trump, creating a "red mirage." This phenomenon could trigger false claims of victory if early results skew towards Election Day votes, which typically favour Republican candidates.
- Days of Counting and Potential Legal Challenges: Similar to 2020, if Harris or Trump narrowly leads in key states, we may see several days of counting and potential legal challenges, especially if discrepancies arise or the results are close. The Guardian has reported that more than 100 pre-election lawsuits are already underway.
According to The New York Times, news organisations, including the Associated Press, often project a winner based on an analysis of votes counted, but they are careful to avoid premature calls. The media have an accuracy rate of above 99.9% for past elections. Still, given the contentious atmosphere surrounding this election, the losing candidate may be reluctant to concede, potentially prolonging the process.
Recounts, Challenges, and Certification
Should the margin be extremely narrow in any battleground state, mandatory recounts could further delay the final results. In Pennsylvania, for example, a recount is automatically triggered if the margin is less than 0.5%. With a wave of election-related lawsuits already in motion, any challenges to the vote count could also lead to drawn-out court battles. In 2000, a recount in Florida kept the nation waiting until the US Supreme Court ultimately decided the outcome five weeks later. Given the contentious nature of this race, such a scenario is again within the realm of possibility.
In the aftermath of the 2020 election, former President Trump's refusal to concede led to dozens of legal challenges, and many analysts believe a similar situation could unfold this year if the results are disputed. According to BBC News, new electoral reforms aim to make it harder for elected officials to challenge certified state results and clarify that the Vice President has no power to reject Electoral College votes.
When is the Presidential Inauguration?
Regardless of any challenges or delays in the vote count, the presidential inauguration is a fixed date. The newly elected president will be inaugurated on Monday, 20 January 2025, at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C. The event, which marks the 60th presidential inauguration in American history, includes the swearing-in ceremony and an inaugural address. The outgoing president typically attends as a symbol of the peaceful transfer of power, though Trump notably did not attend Biden's inauguration in 2021.
Timeline to Final Certification
After Election Day, the process to officially certify the election results includes multiple steps:
- State Certification: Local election officials finalise their vote tallies and forward results to their state governments for certification. Each state is required to confirm and submit its results by 11 December, ensuring their electoral votes are recorded accurately.
- Electoral College Meeting: Electors in each state meet on 17 December to formally cast their votes for president and vice president.
- Congressional Count: On 6 January 2025, a newly convened US Congress will officially count the Electoral College votes in a joint session, overseen by the Vice President. This event is typically ceremonial, although it faced unprecedented disruption in 2021.
Implications of Delayed Results
A protracted delay in announcing the 2024 election results could have significant national implications. According to The Guardian, heightened tensions surrounding the election have led to increased security concerns, particularly in areas where poll workers or officials could face intimidation or harassment. The contentious political climate and persistent allegations of election fraud by some candidates have fuelled public anxiety over the possibility of violence or disruptions.
Additionally, a delay in results would prolong the uncertainty for Americans and could impact global markets. Major economies closely monitor US elections due to the influence of American policies on global trade, defence, and international relations.
Looking Ahead
As the 2024 presidential election unfolds, Americans and the world will be watching closely. Regardless of the final outcome, this election underscores the resilience of the democratic process, even in the face of legal challenges and partisan divisions. The date of the inauguration on 20 January 2025, however, remains fixed and signifies the start of a new chapter in American politics.
