Vacation cruising has nearly returned to normal. Passengers no longer have to wear masks onboard while they are indoors, and while capacities have not returned to 100%, they're approaching that number on some cruises.
In addition, traditional and popular amenities have returned, including the self-serve buffet -- something that many thought might never come back.
Once you step on a Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), or Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) ship, you feel as if you're cruising as you did before the pandemic.
Yes, crew members generally still have masks on -- outside rules vary by the cruise line -- and some passengers still wear them by choice. But the overall crowd and vibe feel like cruising prepandemic.
Before you set foot on a cruise, however, the pandemic still plays a role.
All passengers older than five must prove vaccination and provide a covid test taken no more than two calendar days before the day their cruises leave. Those aren't onerous requirements for many passengers, but for people who can't be vaccinated or have chosen not to get vaccinated, cruising has been off-limits.
That's likely to change -- but not soon, according to former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb, a physician who serves as chairman of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ SailSafe Council.
Carnival
How Do Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Feel?
One assumes that the leaders of the big three cruise lines would prefer the vaccination requirement be dropped. But none have said that because Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian's leaders have assiduously avoided taking any stand that could be considered political.
All three have used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as a benchmark for covid-related policies. That's a smart play because it does not require a business trying to attract all consumers to weigh in on a politically charged issue.
Still, the three cruise lines must thread a needle. They want to show they are committed to safety -- each has spent tens, perhaps hundreds, of millions of dollars to accomplish that -- while not taking any sort of stand that might be controversial.
No cruise executive can openly call for an end to vaccine requirements, since one segment of customers wants them, but the companies almost certainly prefer that the mandate go away.
That will be a CDC decision, according to Gottlieb, who spoke in March on a webcast.
When Will Covid Vaccine Requirements Go Away?
“I think that it’s likely to be a requirement that is in place through this fall and winter,” Gottlieb said. “I’m talking more about CDC and the policy environment. I think that the public health officials -- CDC -- is going to want to see what the epidemiology of this disease is when it gets to a quote, unquote, ‘normal’ state."
The decision depends largely on how the pandemic progresses and whether we see a new variant flare up.
“I think CDC is going to want to see what does that looks like. We’ll hopefully get our first glimpse of that this year. This is like a transition year. Then they’ll make decisions about whether or not they continue to require vaccines in certain settings," he said,
Cruise lines have generally not been a priority for the CDC which kept the industry grounded for more than a year. Despite that, Gottlieb does see some light at the end of the tunnel.
“The short answer to the question is: I think this is kind of a springtime thing from a CDC policy standpoint. They are going to want to make a decision around this after we get through another fall and winter with covid and see if we are truly in an endemic phase with this.”
While vaccination requirements could go away in 2023, testing requirements are likely to continue for the foreseeable future (and may become more important if vaccines are no longer required).
