Queensland's COVID-19 Omicron peak is reportedly just weeks away, but experts warn mask-wearing, social distancing and pressure on the health system will continue for months.
The epidemiologists were responding to reports from Queensland Chief Health Officer John Gerrard yesterday that Omicron was starting to peak in parts of the state.
Dr Gerrard revealed the Gold Coast had peaked and Brisbane was likely to peak within seven days, according to calculations.
He said the Far North Queensland city of Cairns would follow and then other regional areas, although the whole state would not reach a peak for several weeks.
The epidemiologists reacted cautiously to the prediction, with one expressing reservations about the data and another suggesting there could be a plateauing of case numbers, not so much a sharp peak.
All agreed that mask-wearing was likely to continue for months.
Hospitalisations better figures to examine
Burnet Institute associate principal research fellow Mike Toole warned the data being used to make the prediction could be inaccurate.
"We have some doubts about those figures because we have no idea how many people with symptoms are doing a rapid antigen test,'' Professor Toole said, who had also worked for the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"We have no idea because unlike in the United Kingdom, we don't report negative test results," he said.
Professor Toole said better figures to examine were hospitalisations.
'Slow down the curve'
The idea of a peak where infections rise and then drop suddenly was queried by clinical epidemiologist Nancy Baxter, head of the School of Population and Global Health at Melbourne University, who suggested a plateau in infection was more likely as people's habits altered.
"I think it's peaking because everyone has changed their behaviour, with people not mixing and mingling and many are staying at home,'' Professor Baxter said.
"Certainly going back to school will put additional pressure on, as will everyone coming back from holiday and getting back to work.
"That is going to drive more transitions — we are not going to have another peak, but it may slow down the curve."
Mask-wearing 'a no-brainer'
All the epidemiologists agreed that mask-wearing was likely to continue.
"We might get to a stage where we can relax restrictions but for me, masks are a no-brainer," Professor Toole said.
Professor Baxter said masks get things under control.
"We have various restrictions that have helped drive numbers down and relaxing those restrictions may not make so much sense,'' she said.
"Masks don't stop the economy, whereas [the restrictions] where everyone stays at home and doesn't go out … does stop the economy,'' she said.
More lockdowns unlikely
Queensland University of Technology professor of public health and disaster management Gerry FitzGerald, who served as the state's chief health officer for three years, said mask-wearing, social distancing and being cautious around vulnerable people were likely to be in force in the foreseeable future.
He said lockdowns were unlikely to reoccur.
